January Mid-Long Range Disco

[Ji]

Gfs at 150. Blue approaches us. Hits a brick wall and we get nothing again

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[Cobalt]

2 minutes ago, Ji said:

This might of been the worst day of weather modeling of the year

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Lol no kidding. GFS mixes all the way into extreme Upstate NY. Not much with next week either

[Jebman]

I'm good as well. I have 3.5 inches on the season. The calendar only says Jan 9. We got lots chances left yet. But a place like Norfolk? It's likely Ledge time. Get a runway, get a good stance, build up some speed, then go into a beautiful swan dive and they should crash right into the concrete gracefully. 

Unlike those poor folks though, WE in northern Virginia have more snow to look forward to this winter. We WILL get shellacked by snow. All we need, is a less extreme version of the cold we just had - and we are damn good to go. Snow weenies wont fly, they'll be in orbit.

[psuhoffman]

11 minutes ago, Ji said:

Gfs at 150. Blue approaches us. Hits a brick wall and we get nothing again

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It's 100 miles and slightly more energy from being a decent event at 150+ hours. Relax. Nothing was high probability anyways but this run wasn't bad Imo. Didn't take away the general idea that leaves the door open to something. 

[Ji]

As I posted earlier...thats the problem. We are always 150 miles east south north or west of something and we trend about 60% of the way. Why can't we just be the fooking target for once

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[H2O]

2 hours ago, mappy said:

that one, or every version of it since 2013/2014? 

Yes

[Bob Chill]

5 minutes ago, Ji said:

As I posted earlier...thats the problem. We are always 150 miles east south north or west of something and we trend about 60% of the way. Why can't we just be the fooking target for once

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[psuhoffman]

hmm yea that trough in the NW is going to be a problem but if the rest of that look is close to where we're heading I wouldn't rule anything out.  The previous runs the Pacific trough was more dominant then the arctic ridge. But they have been trending the opposite ways. If the blocking ends up dominant and that Pacific trough is weaker or transient then suddenly what we thought was a shutout pattern has a threat in the middle of it.  We don't need big cold in January. Get something forced under us from that blocking and maybe. 

Dont mistake this for me thinking it's not going to warm. Given the Pacific there will be some warm days and the period day 9-17 or so will probably average warm.  But it would shock me if somewhere within that period a sneaky system gets forced under with just enough cold to be interesting. 

Get the Pacific to flip and suddenly that's a good look. 

[Ji]

Lol...i can handle a run where need a 8 mile shift south!

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[Bob Chill]

Ji, this is 100% snow in your yard and it's not even done yet. Just trying to make sure you're still here tomorrow. 

[Neblizzard]

4 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

hmm yea that trough in the NW is going to be a problem but if the rest of that look is close to where we're heading I wouldn't rule anything out.  The previous runs the Pacific trough was more dominant then the arctic ridge. But they have been trending the opposite ways. If the blocking ends up dominant and that Pacific trough is weaker or transient then suddenly what we thought was a shutout pattern has a threat in the middle of it.  We don't need big cold in January. Get something forced under us from that blocking and maybe. 

Dont mistake this for me thinking it's not going to warm. Given the Pacific there will be some warm days and the period day 9-17 or so will probably average warm.  But it would shock me if somewhere within that period a sneaky system gets forced under with just enough cold to be interesting. 

Get the Pacific to flip and suddenly that's a good look. 

That’s quite a robust -AO/-NAO.  Too bad we are losing the pacific but this time of year we can get the job done.  I doubt anything will cut as long as that block is in place 

[Amped]

4 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

3rd fantasy kU storm of the season.  It's a beauty, snows from 288hrs-360 hrs.

[psuhoffman]

4 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

It's supported by h5.  See my post above.  Doesn't mean it's right. The whole look will change in 6 hours but I saw that coming looking at the hemispheric h5 72 hours before that. Didn't expect it to fully manifest itself at the surface but not shocked in the result given the look up top leading in.  Of course that look could be way off but it's been trending. Continue to trend the ao and nao negative and reduce the amplitude of the trough in the Pacific NW and suddenly the torch is a workable pattern. 

[psuhoffman]

Cue someone complaining about analyzing long range threats in 3....2.....1......

[psuhoffman]

Just now, WxWatcher007 said:

Ji's gone. I took him home a few days ago  

I swear I saw the TT maps and almost did lol

I'm just here to see who needs to be on the watch list and taken up yonder. 

Can we get a "you've gone looney tunes" watch list. I feel that's become as big a problem around here lately. 

[Amped]

H5 is amazing. Troff tries to lift out and a new one digs behind it. Misses a a full capture  with the closed low though.

[Bob Chill]

11 minutes ago, Amped said:

3rd fantasy kU storm of the season.  It's a beauty, snows from 288hrs-360 hrs.

Not only did it take solid blocking, it also required tight spacing so a transient 50/50 flexed a bicep or it would have cut anyway. Lol. Prob would get frozen on a cut with that progression though. 

Eps has about a quarter of the members punching a trough through during the "torch" period. We can probably expect many more unusual solutions if the -ao is real. 

[psuhoffman]

I'm only half kidding about the looney tunes list. You could reap their cred and then they get a clown avatar and we all know not to take them seriously. 

[Chris78]

14 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

hmm yea that trough in the NW is going to be a problem but if the rest of that look is close to where we're heading I wouldn't rule anything out.  The previous runs the Pacific trough was more dominant then the arctic ridge. But they have been trending the opposite ways. If the blocking ends up dominant and that Pacific trough is weaker or transient then suddenly what we thought was a shutout pattern has a threat in the middle of it.  We don't need big cold in January. Get something forced under us from that blocking and maybe. 

Dont mistake this for me thinking it's not going to warm. Given the Pacific there will be some warm days and the period day 9-17 or so will probably average warm.  But it would shock me if somewhere within that period a sneaky system gets forced under with just enough cold to be interesting. 

Get the Pacific to flip and suddenly that's a good look. 

This year it just wants to be cold. Usually it's the other way and were praying for colder temps prior to most events. Crazy how our torch has morphed into what the models are sugesting now for the same time frame. I'm sure there will be warmer days mixed in but I thought we were heading for a 2 week shut out pattern.  Hopefully we can time something up for a minor/moderate event.

 

[Bob Chill]

15 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

It's supported by h5.  See my post above.  Doesn't mean it's right. The whole look will change in 6 hours but I saw that coming looking at the hemispheric h5 72 hours before that. Didn't expect it to fully manifest itself at the surface but not shocked in the result given the look up top leading in.  Of course that look could be way off but it's been trending. Continue to trend the ao and nao negative and reduce the amplitude of the trough in the Pacific NW and suddenly the torch is a workable pattern. 

Yea, you and I listen to each other. Thankfully...lol. As soon as I saw all ops and ens lock in on the strongest block we've seen over the pole in years I knew that things would become volatile as heck. Nothing can be trusted. Not even ensembles. A block can't solve all our problems but it can certainly make things interesting. Storms do track west to east and not make a left turn at the apps sometimes. It's happened before and it will happen again. 

 

[Amped]

10 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

Not only did it take solid blocking, it also required tight spacing so a transient 50/50 flexed a bicep or it would have cut anyway. Lol. Prob would get frozen on a cut with that progression though. 

Eps has about a quarter of the members punching a trough through during the "torch" period. We can probably expect many more unusual solutions if the -ao is real. 

I feel better we are not going to torch away a full month with this pattern, it's going to be more of a roller coaster.  GFS also shows a stratospheric warming at the end of the run.

[psuhoffman]

8 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

Yea, you and I listen to each other. Thankfully...lol. 

 

Shhhhhh they might burn us as witches 

[pasnownut]

and after your digital snow,  Momma nature gonna let you play for a couple days.

(only posted cause is looks like more of a therapy session in here right now....just tryin to help warm weenies off muddy ledges.)

 

[pasnownut]

3 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

Shhhhhh they might burn us as witches 

lord knows there's lots of torch talk in here....

[Bob Chill]

57 minutes ago, Amped said:

I feel better we are not going to torch away a full month with this pattern, it's going to be more of a roller coaster.  GFS also shows a stratospheric warming at the end of the run.

Euro has been splitting 30 and 50hpa as well. A lot of disruption on the models. The strat has been a tough cold beast for more than a few years now but just like with everything else in weather, nothing is permanent and things can be abrupt without much lead time. Cfs is showing some interesting stuff in the strat in Feb too. 

The AO hasn't really had a personality this year like many recent ones. It been right in between good and bad. Maybe it breaks our way. At least it's easy to see the possibility. Last 3-4 years were no chance and it was really easy to see. 

[dallen7908]

A few weeks ago someone asked why the ECMWF is only run twice per day.  I posed this question to an ECMWF representative at the AMS meeting today.  She explained that it is because their mandate is to do medium range forecasting and that two runs per day are sufficient to do so.  Individual countries within the European Union are responsible for their own short range forecasts and most run their own regional models to do so. 

I posed the same question to a representative of WeatherBell and he stated that he believes part of the reason is that the ECMWT forecast takes a long time to come out and that sondes are usually launched twice per day.  The  12Z ECMWF simulation begins later than the 12Z GFS run; by waiting longer, the ECMWF group is able to incorporate late arriving data sets into their analysis/IC thus helping their forecast.

Why we didn't specifically discuss this, the ECMWF's goals for 2025 are "skillful ensemble predictions of high-impact weather up to two week ahead", prediction of "large-scale patterns and regime transitions up to four weeks ahead", and "global scale anomalies up to a year ahead". 

As a sidenote, she believed the 9 km resolution would be around until at least 2021. 

 

[MountainGeek]

23 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

I'm only half kidding about the looney tunes list. You could reap their cred and then they get a clown avatar and we all know not to take them seriously. 

We have a Panic Room, why not create an Asylum for the "crazy undead"?

[psuhoffman]

5 minutes ago, dallen7908 said:

A few weeks ago someone asked why the ECMWF is only run twice per day.  I posed this question to an ECMWF representative at the AMS meeting today.  She explained that it is because their mandate is to do medium range forecasting and that two runs per day are sufficient to do so.  Individual countries within the European Union are responsible for their own short range forecasts and most run their own regional models to do so. 

I posed the same question to a representative of WeatherBell and he stated that he believes part of the reason is that the ECMWT forecast takes a long time to come out and that sondes are usually launched twice per day.  The  12Z ECMWF simulation begins later than the 12Z GFS run; by waiting longer, the ECMWF group is able to incorporate late arriving data sets into their analysis/IC thus helping their forecast.

Why we didn't specifically discuss this, the ECMWF's goals for 2025 are "skillful ensemble predictions of high-impact weather up to two week ahead", prediction of "large-scale patterns and regime transitions up to four weeks ahead", and "global scale anomalies up to a year ahead". 

As a sidenote, she believed the 9 km resolution would be around until at least 2021. 

 

Thanks for the info 

[WEATHER53]

This is a fast flow Nina dry year where cold is the highlight. 7+!day bombs should be ridiculed as they have not materialized, tend not to in seasons like this, and most likely will continue to not materialize. 

detailed discussion of what the 7+ days shows for us are very readable but not predictive of actual outcomes  I remember ALL the staunch model followers of 5+ years ago, they are mostly lurkers now as they have assessed and absorbed what actual outcomes really are .

 

[dallen7908]

Here is a factoid I learned at the AMS meeting today.

I saw a plot showing the correlation between mean wintertime temperature and total snow fall over the United States and Canada over 1950 to present.  The correlation was positive for locations with mean winter temperatures below -15C and negative for mean winter temperatures above -10C.  So unless you live within say 100 km of the Canadian border root for a cold winter ... if you like snow.