Jump to content
  • Member Statistics

    17,502
    Total Members
    7,904
    Most Online
    Weathernoob335
    Newest Member
    Weathernoob335
    Joined

The January 7-8th possible CAD storm


mackerel_sky

Recommended Posts

  • Replies 461
  • Created
  • Last Reply
18 minutes ago, drfranklin said:

the moisture plume in LA/MS looks rather impressive on intellicast - 26.0/2

12km nam is doing horribly on the northern edge of the precip shield currently....it busts that bad here, it will be something. 3km nam is also missing badly up toward Illinois. 12km looks better for tomorrow night...which is tricky because by this point the sub freezing cold pool...or whats left of it will be very shallow indeed...virtually just a few hundred feet deep....and maybe confined toward the athens area only. (assuming we have seen enough precip) 

cold evening so far. 25/10 here. Already a few degrees colder than model forecasted lows. 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

5 minutes ago, Lookout said:

12km nam is doing horribly on the northern edge of the precip shield currently....it busts that bad here, it will be something. 3km nam is also missing badly up toward Illinois. 12km looks better for tomorrow night...which is tricky because by this point the sub freezing cold pool...or whats left of it will be very shallow indeed...virtually just a few hundred feet deep....and maybe confined toward the athens area only. (assuming we have seen enough precip) 

cold evening so far. 25/10 here. Already a few degrees colder than model forecasted lows. 

Well I'm at 1220', so I guess I better hope the first part lays down the ground work, or else it'll be a mid 30s rain here, yuck. 28.7/9 with a stiff E wind.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

6 minutes ago, CummingGaSnow said:

Well I'm at 1220', so I guess I better hope the first part lays down the ground work, or else it'll be a mid 30s rain here, yuck. 28.7/9 with a stiff E wind.

it's just an approximation based on the nam soundings..if the nam is misreading the degree of evap cooling, which we all know happens every time,  it could be a little too shallow.....although no doubt warming will be occurring from the top down with time. Will be some really interesting temps across the region by late afternoon/evening....i love airmasses like this where there could be big differences over the course of just a few miles..or less... based on elevation/topography.  

Link to comment
Share on other sites

9 minutes ago, CAD_Wedge_NC said:

Nam keeps me below freezing for the entire event... Question is: How much precip will our area get?

Yeah I've got a feeling the cold isn't going to be disbursed as quickly as models may think with the CAD . We are experiencing some probably nobody here has experienced. 8 + days of below freezing temperatures. 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

11 minutes ago, calculus1 said:

The 3K NAM is pretty amazing in its resolution.  This image from the 00Z NAM shows the South Mountains State Park area is plain rain, while all the surrounding area is freezing.  So, it's gauging that those mountain areas are too tall and will be out of the subfreezing air in that small microclimate.  Pretty cool!

smsp.PNG.4c3e75e46260d11f6759f4b4654be919.PNG

If that's close to being right on this radar forecast, it's going to be really really bad, and the school closings would have saved the day! A lot of griping on school FB pages about " how could they close school" mentality!

Link to comment
Share on other sites

28 minutes ago, Lookout said:

it's just an approximation based on the nam soundings..if the nam is misreading the degree of evap cooling, which we all know happens every time,  it could be a little too shallow.....although no doubt warming will be occurring from the top down with time. Will be some really interesting temps across the region by late afternoon/evening....i love airmasses like this where there could be big differences over the course of just a few miles..or less... based on elevation/topography.  

40s in ATL, mid 30s in GVL, and 32 with zr in Athens. Also, it will be interesting to see how warm some of the higher peaks in GA get that have stations like in eastern Pickens at 3000' and Suches at 3200'.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Nashville TN
819 PM CST Sun Jan 7 2018
.UPDATE...
FOR EVENING DISCUSSION.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Looking over the latest observation for the evening update and
there are a few things to note in regards to the potential for
wintry weather tonight. Let`s start with the rain being seen on
the radar. Light precipitation has been showing on the radar over
western and middle Tennessee over the last couple of hours,
however, the only sites reporting rain at this hour are Dyersburg
way back by the TN River and Clarksville. 
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Always stays a tad warmer here on the hill, 28.3/9. Continued stiff E wind. I have to say that (unless it totally dries up) radar trends to our W/SW are very encouraging. I don't hope or wish for anyone to have power taken out, but we're all winter enthusiasts in this thread so I hope we can all get in on some of the winter precip headed our way. We're kind of in "rare" territory as it's almost never this cold and dry with precip moving our way, so here's to a good thumping!

Link to comment
Share on other sites

13 minutes ago, CummingGaSnow said:

40s in ATL, mid 30s in GVL, and 32 with zr in Athens. Also, it will be interesting to see how warm some of the higher peaks in GA get that have stations like in eastern Pickens at 3000' and Suches at 3200'.

haha...i think atlanta won't quite get that warm...although i do think the last to warm above freezing will be east of atlanta toward athens/here and into sc. 

6 minutes ago, Red1976Red said:

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Nashville TN
819 PM CST Sun Jan 7 2018
.UPDATE...
FOR EVENING DISCUSSION.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Looking over the latest observation for the evening update and
there are a few things to note in regards to the potential for
wintry weather tonight. Let`s start with the rain being seen on
the radar. Light precipitation has been showing on the radar over
western and middle Tennessee over the last couple of hours,
however, the only sites reporting rain at this hour are Dyersburg
way back by the TN River and Clarksville. 

oops lol

although to be fair...they are right..there is a lot of virga on the leading edge.,,but that's not really news. 

Close
KBNA 36.12 / -86.69 @ 597 ft
Name: Nashville International Airport
Updated: 07 Jan 8:55 pm
Mesonet: NWS/FAA
Temp:39° F4° C
Dew Point:19° F-7° C
Relh:44 %
Wind:S@14 mph 12 kts
Wind Chill:31° F
Altimeter:30.23 in
Weather:Lt Rain
Visibility:10.00 mi
Clouds:OVC060
 
Link to comment
Share on other sites

5 minutes ago, Lookout said:

haha...i think atlanta won't quite get that warm...although i do think the last to warm above freezing will be east of atlanta toward

heh yeah that atlanta prediction was halfway in jest, but you are correct; when wedges are becoming shallower and eroding from the top down. Usually it is the lower elevations from ATL to AHN into the upstate that are the last to warm above freezing. We shall see. Like you said, if we do get any precip that is "heavier" then we do run the risk of warming above freezing, especially later in the day. Tomorrow will be an interesting day for sure.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

46 minutes ago, Lookout said:

it's just an approximation based on the nam soundings..if the nam is misreading the degree of evap cooling, which we all know happens every time,  it could be a little too shallow.....although no doubt warming will be occurring from the top down with time. Will be some really interesting temps across the region by late afternoon/evening....i love airmasses like this where there could be big differences over the course of just a few miles..or less... based on elevation/topography.  

This air mass is so dry and I think it is going to take some time to saturate.  I am just interested to see how it all turns out.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Archived

This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.

  • Recently Browsing   0 members

    • No registered users viewing this page.

×
×
  • Create New...