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Jan 4th Coastal Obs/Disc


mappy

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Guys. This storm is probably one where HRRR is really going to struggle. It MIGHT be okay if stuff is already happening and can depict banding features, but I don’t know about right now. Plus, it’s still out in time. Keep an eye on it to measure verification later though. If snow was more convective driven, then it could have some merit, but it has struggled with big systems many times before.


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1 minute ago, wolfpackwxDC said:

Just heard from family in Greenville, NC - currently 33-35 degrees and rain. From what I was seeing, I always expected there to be a mixing issue - maybe with ice/sleet there, but thought they would be sufficiently cold enough to be all frozen. Sort of surprised, but perhaps that bodes well for us with a stronger westward push?

think one of the things we have going for us further north versus central NC is flow off the Atlantic as the circulation becomes well defined. Overcoming very dry air should easier here as moisture is transported in off the atlantic instead of advecting from the south like what's happening in NC. Not saying I think we're going to get some big blob of heavy snow marching in. Just that we should only have hours and hours of virga instead of hours and hours and hours.  

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4 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

think one of the things we have going for us further north versus central NC is flow off the Atlantic as the circulation becomes well defined. Overcoming very dry air should easier here as moisture is transported in off the atlantic instead of advecting from the south like what's happening in NC. Not saying I think we're going to get some big blob of heavy snow marching in. Just that we should only have hours and hours of virga instead of hours and hours and hours.  

What are you hiding from us?  When does the big blob start? I'm scared. 

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Have studied the current evolution, here's some observations and a revised (upgraded) second call ...

1. The low is now situated at 30N 78W, most features are moving NNE.

2. There will be explosive deepening now to 06z when low should be east of ILM.

3. Western edge of enhanced cloud will merge with reinforcing arctic front about that time.

4. Ship report in warm sector is very encouraging (SE 49 knots, 66 deg over 77 deg water)

5. Cannot stress enough how explosive this storm will be tonight and Thursday. 

Upgraded forecast amounts for Mid Atl forum regions

DCA 4-7" (similar northeast to York PA)

BWI 7-10" (similar northeast to PHL and EWR)

Delmarva 12-18" raging blizzard gusts to 80 mph possible

southeast VA 14-24" gusts to 70 mph possible

RIC 10"

CHO 4"

Western cutoff for snow will be indistinct because of upslope potential and Lake Erie streamers invading the dry zone west of the Blue Ridge, which is about where it would cut off without those factors. 

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Have studied the current evolution, here's some observations and a revised (upgraded) second call ...
1. The low is now situated at 30N 78W, most features are moving NNE.
2. There will be explosive deepening now to 06z when low should be east of ILM.
3. Western edge of enhanced cloud will merge with reinforcing arctic front about that time.
4. Ship report in warm sector is very encouraging (SE 49 knots, 66 deg over 77 deg water)
5. Cannot stress enough how explosive this storm will be tonight and Thursday. 
Upgraded forecast amounts for Mid Atl forum regions
DCA 4-7" (similar northeast to York PA)
BWI 7-10" (similar northeast to PHL and EWR)
Delmarva 12-18" raging blizzard gusts to 80 mph possible
southeast VA 14-24" gusts to 70 mph possible
RIC 10"
CHO 4"
Western cutoff for snow will be indistinct because of upslope potential and Lake Erie streamers invading the dry zone west of the Blue Ridge, which is about where it would cut off without those factors. 
Your lips to God's ears. That's one heck of a bold call. So you think this will basically blow up after all.

Sent from my XT1635-01 using Tapatalk

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11 minutes ago, Roger Smith said:

Have studied the current evolution, here's some observations and a revised (upgraded) second call ...

1. The low is now situated at 30N 78W, most features are moving NNE.

2. There will be explosive deepening now to 06z when low should be east of ILM.

3. Western edge of enhanced cloud will merge with reinforcing arctic front about that time.

4. Ship report in warm sector is very encouraging (SE 49 knots, 66 deg over 77 deg water)

5. Cannot stress enough how explosive this storm will be tonight and Thursday. 

Upgraded forecast amounts for Mid Atl forum regions

DCA 4-7" (similar northeast to York PA)

BWI 7-10" (similar northeast to PHL and EWR)

Delmarva 12-18" raging blizzard gusts to 80 mph possible

southeast VA 14-24" gusts to 70 mph possible

RIC 10"

CHO 4"

Western cutoff for snow will be indistinct because of upslope potential and Lake Erie streamers invading the dry zone west of the Blue Ridge, which is about where it would cut off without those factors. 

You have big balls my friend. I sure hope you are right.

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Snowfall rates will be 2-3" an hour once the storm explodes, so my call really means that I think DCA is on the edge of heavier snow bands and gets a few hours of good snow, perhaps not continuous, adding up to 4-7" ... and that may end up being like 1" cover in some places and 1-2' in others once the wind gets done with it. 

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