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Jan 4th Coastal Obs/Disc


mappy

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1 minute ago, Bob Chill said:

Yea, instead of maxing amounts with a brutal cutoff it's a nice spread out event for many more people to enjoy. We need to get Winchester in the game. Then we KNOW we're getting hit hard here. lol

Still time to trend.  If Winchester gets an inch its definitely game on in the Metro.

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10 minutes ago, Eskimo Joe said:

Looks like the mid level cloud deck is somewhere between I-64 and I-66.  DCA reporting clouds at 25kft, while CHO is reporting 11kft.  Should move in right at sunset.

The mid level cloud deck has reached Fredericksburg, can see the edge to the north. 33/8 here atm

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Nowcast update

mentioned earlier about low hugging closer to coast and example at that time if precip overspreading 2/3 of SC and not 1/3 as model depicted

departing Arctic air masses with an even colder one moving in will befuddle models

as to convection robbing-we see this at times when convection is running west to east well to our south, like ms/al/ga/fl  don't know why mechanically but when convection aligns north to south right along coast the same moisture rob does not occur so not worried about convection 

 

 

 

 

 

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2 minutes ago, BristowWx said:

Yes this weenie is happy.  That dark green is close to my yard in PWC.  Still close call

It's been a good day. Euro/ukie are the driest but they both moved west. While the NAMs might/probably be overdone (hopefully not) it is comforting to see the western extent go west again. Living on the edge sucks but now my friends to the west are living on the edge and I have room to spare. Not too shabby. 

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3 minutes ago, mitchnick said:

That thick, heavy area of clouds moving in off the ocean off SC coast as depicted on sat/pic below is bringing with it heavy rains off the ocean moving NW

http://weather.cod.edu/satrad/exper/?parms=continental-conus-09-48-1-100

https://radar.weather.gov/radar.php?rid=ltx&product=N0R&overlay=11101111&loop=yes

Man it sure looks like the trough wants to go negative

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13 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

Yea, instead of maxing amounts with a brutal cutoff it's a nice spread out event for many more people to enjoy. We need to get Winchester in the game. Then we KNOW we're getting hit hard here. lol

I am down with that! I have been noticing that the meso's are showing a band set up to the west associated with the northern system. That might be the only real way we see anything out here out of this.

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5 minutes ago, DCTeacherman said:

Weenie intellicast radar starting to light up in central VA and SE WV.  Inconsequential virga or signs of the precip shield building a little further NW than anticipated? 

It's going to be hours of virga but I can't find any composite sim radars that match how things look in real time. Don't think it means much but it's not a bad thing no matter how you look at it. 

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