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Jan 4th Coastal Obs/Disc


mappy

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HRRR at 18Z is the farthest west of any of the HRRR runs with accumulating snows into central VA

Compare the 18Z run to prior ones here; go to top left of page and on the drop down menu just choose a prior run and it takes you to the same actual hour so long as you don't pick too late of an hour that wasn't covered on the prior run

http://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=hrrr&p=snku_acc&rh=2018010318&fh=16&r=us_ma&dpdt=

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2 minutes ago, losetoa6 said:

Agree . And There's always surprises with these big  ones . It wouldn't surprise if the short range models play catch up to the end.  

Mitch...you're on it man..bravo

I will admit...a rapidly developing storm progged to be very intense is one of the situations that even with today's models can end up having last minute upside. All models run qpf through the corridor so it's not like we still hoping to get "anything at all" in the region. My worry is convection off shore screws up moisture transport and that leads to disappointment even as meager as it is for most folks. However, would not take much to push an upside bust west... 

There will be A LOT of hallucinations over the next 12 hours. lol

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4 minutes ago, mitchnick said:

HRRR at 18Z is the farthest west of any of the HRRR runs with accumulating snows into central VA

Compare the 18Z run to prior ones here; go to top left of page and on the drop down menu just choose a prior run and it takes you to the same actual hour so long as you don't pick too late of an hour that wasn't covered on the prior run

http://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=hrrr&p=snku_acc&rh=2018010318&fh=16&r=us_ma&dpdt=

Totals go up to almost 6" for the Richmond people. BIG impacts to the city and metro RVA

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25 minutes ago, gymengineer said:

Are you sure it wasn't for DCA? Looking at IAD obs-- there were not 3 consecutive hours of high enough wind gusts. DCA did meet criteria for 3 consecutive on-the-hour observations in a row (2:52 pm, 3:52 pm, 4:52 pm), which Capital Weather Gang pointed out. But that's really two hours, not three. 

Nope, it was IAD.  I have a screenshot from the 3 obs.  I'll PM it to you once I dig it up.

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13 minutes ago, mitchnick said:

I don't care what the models say, the radar returns are moving nicely NW here. I know all about lack of ground obs, but the models have sim/rad return products and they don't show such a NW move.

http://weather.unisys.com/radar/hires_rad.php?image=rad&inv=0&t=l3&region=at

Here's the NAM 3K for 2PM.....the BEST model for snowfall and it shows nothing like this.

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=nam3km&region=us&pkg=satradar_frzn&runtime=2018010312&fh=7&xpos=0&ypos=0

Here's the NAM for 2pm

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=namconus&region=us&pkg=ref_frzn&runtime=2018010312&fh=7&xpos=0&ypos=218

 

even when you click ahead one hour to 3pm, it's still not like reality

You remind me of us back in 2000.  It warms my heart.  Seriously.  By hook or by crook, you're going to will this thing to us.  But probably not.  :(   Godspeed.  

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3 minutes ago, stormtracker said:

You remind me of us back in 2000.  It warms my heart.  Seriously.  By hook or by crook, you're going to will this thing to us.  But probably not.  :(   Godspeed.  

Man, I can't believe it has been 18 years since that day. But I'll tell you, even though I'm a weenie, I think this turns out decent enough all things considered. One thing I am noticing is that it "looks" like the thing is going faster than models showed in their sim/sat pics. Might help the low get further north, so who knows.

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7 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

 My worry is convection off shore screws up moisture transport and that leads to disappointment even as meager as it is for most folks. However, would not take much to push an upside bust west... 

There will be A LOT of hallucinations over the next 12 hours. lol

I’m very worried about convection. I also wouldn’t be surprised (totally) if I woke up to 4” and it snowing fairly heavily. It’s still a tough forecast. I guess our cold temps ensures that even if we’re robbed of moisture from convection, whatever does fall will accumulate.

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Just now, WxUSAF said:

I’m very worried about convection. I also wouldn’t be surprised (totally) if I woke up to 4” and it snowing fairly heavily. It’s still a tough forecast. I guess our cold temps ensures that even if we’re robbed of moisture from convection, whatever does fall will accumulate.

that could very well be the reasoning behind the tight gradient in the models, so if they overamped things maybe that helps us get to advisory level stuff.

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2 minutes ago, WxUSAF said:

I’m very worried about convection. I also wouldn’t be surprised (totally) if I woke up to 4” and it snowing fairly heavily. It’s still a tough forecast. I guess our cold temps ensures that even if we’re robbed of moisture from convection, whatever does fall will accumulate.

If we woke up to 4" and snow it'd be a freaking regional meltdown.  Absolutely no prep for snow being done right now.

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28 minutes ago, mitchnick said:

I don't care what the models say, the radar returns are moving nicely NW here. I know all about lack of ground obs, but the models have sim/rad return products and they don't show such a NW move.

http://weather.unisys.com/radar/hires_rad.php?image=rad&inv=0&t=l3&region=at

Here's the NAM 3K for 2PM.....the BEST model for snowfall and it shows nothing like this.

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=nam3km&region=us&pkg=satradar_frzn&runtime=2018010312&fh=7&xpos=0&ypos=0

Here's the NAM for 2pm

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=namconus&region=us&pkg=ref_frzn&runtime=2018010312&fh=7&xpos=0&ypos=218

 

even when you click ahead one hour to 3pm, it's still not like reality

I think that's composite radar.  If so, it's not too far off from the NAM 3k.  The NAM 3k predicts a lot of virga over VA and NC around now.  What do ground reports say?

2uEshHT.gif

Just in case dry air is a big issue, I'm going to turn on my sprinklers tonight.

 

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28 minutes ago, arlwx said:

YUCK!

From LWX:

Winter Weather Advisory



URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC
207 PM EST Wed Jan 3 2018

Southern Baltimore-Prince Georges-Anne Arundel-Charles-
Northwest Harford-Southeast Harford-King George-
207 PM EST Wed Jan 3 2018

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO
11 AM EST THURSDAY...

* WHAT...Snow expected. Plan on slippery road conditions,
  including during the morning commute on Thursday. Total snow
  accumulations of 1 to 3 inches are expected.

* WHERE...Portions of central, northern and southern Maryland
  and central Virginia.

* WHEN...From 10 PM this evening to 11 AM EST Thursday.



URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC
207 PM EST Wed Jan 3 2018

District of Columbia-Carroll-Northern Baltimore-
Northwest Montgomery-Central and Southeast Montgomery-
Northwest Howard-Central and Southeast Howard-
Prince William/Manassas/Manassas Park-Fairfax-
Arlington/Falls Church/Alexandria-Stafford-Spotsylvania-
207 PM EST Wed Jan 3 2018

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO
11 AM EST THURSDAY...

* WHAT...Snow expected. Plan on slippery road conditions,
  including during the morning commute on Thursday. Total snow
  accumulations of around one inch are expected.

* WHERE...The District of Columbia, portions of central, north
  central and northern Maryland and central and northern Virginia.

* WHEN...From 10 PM this evening to 11 AM EST Thursday.



URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC
207 PM EST Wed Jan 3 2018
St. Marys-Calvert-
207 PM EST Wed Jan 3 2018

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 10 PM THIS
EVENING TO 11 AM EST THURSDAY...

* WHAT...Snow expected. Plan on slippery road conditions,
  including during the morning commute on Thursday. Total snow
  accumulations of 3 to 5 inches are expected.

* WHERE...St. Marys and Calvert.

* WHEN...From 10 PM this evening to 11 AM EST Thursday.

* 


URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC
207 PM EST Wed Jan 3 2018

Frederick MD-Southern Fauquier-Eastern Loudoun-
207 PM EST Wed Jan 3 2018

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO
11 AM EST THURSDAY...

* WHAT...Snow expected. Plan on slippery road conditions,
  including during the morning commute on Thursday. Total snow
  accumulations of up to one inch are expected.

* WHERE...In Maryland, Frederick MD. In Virginia, Southern
  Fauquier and Eastern Loudoun.

* WHEN...From 10 PM this evening to 11 AM EST Thursday.



URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Mount Holly NJ
1223 PM EST Wed Jan 3 2018

...High Impact Storm including the aftermath of wind driven
record cold on its way to our area...

...A rapidly intensifying ocean storm will produce significant
snowfall and strong winds tonight through Thursday...

MDZ008-012-040530-
/O.EXA.KPHI.WW.Y.0001.180104T0000Z-180104T2200Z/
Cecil-Kent MD-
Including the cities of Elkton and Chestertown
1223 PM EST Wed Jan 3 2018

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO
5 PM EST THURSDAY...

* WHAT...Snow and blowing snow expected. Plan on slippery road
  conditions, including during the morning commute on Thursday. In
  addition, areas of poor visibility are expected. Total snow
  accumulations of 1 to 3 inches with locally higher amounts
  possible.

* WHERE...Cecil and Kent MD counties.

* WHEN...From 7 PM this evening to 5 PM EST Thursday.

*


URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Mount Holly NJ
1223 PM EST Wed Jan 3 2018

...High Impact Storm including the aftermath of wind driven
record cold on its way to our area...

...A rapidly intensifying ocean storm will produce significant
snowfall and strong winds tonight through Thursday...

MDZ015-019-020-040530-
/O.CON.KPHI.WW.Y.0001.180104T0000Z-180104T2200Z/
Queen Annes-Talbot-Caroline-
Including the cities of Centreville, Easton, and Denton
1223 PM EST Wed Jan 3 2018

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 7 PM THIS
EVENING TO 5 PM EST THURSDAY...

* WHAT...Snow and blowing snow expected. Plan on slippery road
  conditions, including during the morning commute on Thursday. In
  addition, areas of poor visibility are expected. Tree branches
  could fall as well. Total snow accumulations of 2 to 4 inches
  are expected with locally higher amounts possible.

* WHERE...Queen Annes, Talbot and Caroline counties.

* WHEN...From 7 PM this evening to 5 PM EST Thursday.



URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Wakefield VA
900 AM EST Wed Jan 3 2018

Westmoreland-Richmond-Brunswick-Dinwiddie-Prince George-
Charles City-New Kent-Eastern Hanover-
Eastern Chesterfield (Including Col. Heights)-Eastern Henrico-
Western King William-Eastern King William-Western King and Queen-
Eastern King and Queen-Western Essex-Eastern Essex-
Including the cities of Lawrenceville, Petersburg, Hopewell,
Mechanicsville, Chesterfield, Chester, Colonial Heights,
Sandston, Aylett, King William, West Point,
King And Queen Court House, Tappahannock, and Dunnsville
900 AM EST Wed Jan 3 2018

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY NOW IN EFFECT FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING
TO NOON EST THURSDAY...

* WHAT...Snow expected. Plan on slippery road conditions,
  including during the morning commute on Thursday. Total snow
  accumulations of 2 to 4 inches are expected, with locally higher
  amounts east of Interstate 95.

* WHERE...Portions of central, east central and south central
  Virginia.

* WHEN...From 10 PM this evening to noon EST Thursday.

Moving in the right direction if nothing else.

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1 minute ago, SnowGolfBro said:

I'm just west of 95.  But the speed of this thing is giving me hope.  It looks like returns could be pressing into EZF by 9pm tonight.  I don't think I've seen any model show that.  However I haven't delved into Deep Thunder lol

Hours of virga is what you will see before anything reaches the ground unless this thing moves in unexpected direction.  If we even see snow west of 95 it will be very early morning I think.

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10 minutes ago, Eskimo Joe said:

If we woke up to 4" and snow it'd be a freaking regional meltdown.  Absolutely no prep for snow being done right now.

True. I do snow removal both residential and commercial...Down in annapolis today running around and people have no clue it's supposed to snow tomorrow. 

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