pasnownut Posted January 15, 2018 Share Posted January 15, 2018 many of us enjoy.....not just me. if you trust the NAM snow maps (I only use for precip distribution, not quantity distribution.) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pasnownut Posted January 15, 2018 Share Posted January 15, 2018 and for comparision/consensus. North ans west won over the weekend. Can central/south/east win in the next 48?? Oh the drama... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CarlislePaWx Posted January 15, 2018 Share Posted January 15, 2018 I trust them....I trust them....LOL! Especially since I am close to one of the jackpot zones. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pasnownut Posted January 15, 2018 Share Posted January 15, 2018 1 minute ago, CarlislePaWx said: I trust them....I trust them....LOL! Especially since I am close to one of the jackpot zones. with a setup like this i want you to jackpot, cause then I'm safe as ours comes from part #2. Nut Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wmsptwx Posted January 15, 2018 Share Posted January 15, 2018 I didnt get more that 1.4 inches Fri night lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pasnownut Posted January 15, 2018 Share Posted January 15, 2018 1 minute ago, Wmsptwx said: I didnt get more that 1.4 inches Fri night lol. well thats 1.399 more than down here.... not loling.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
canderson Posted January 15, 2018 Share Posted January 15, 2018 My parents in East Texas are forecast to get 1-3}” snow tonight too! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wmsptwx Posted January 15, 2018 Share Posted January 15, 2018 26 minutes ago, pasnownut said: well thats 1.399 more than down here.... not loling.... Have a feeling you'll cash in tonight man Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
canderson Posted January 15, 2018 Share Posted January 15, 2018 GFS looks nice for tomorrow, Voyager looks to even get close to 6”. MDT appears a solid 3-4”. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sauss06 Posted January 15, 2018 Share Posted January 15, 2018 i might want to get my snow blower out Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
canderson Posted January 15, 2018 Share Posted January 15, 2018 10 minutes ago, sauss06 said: i might want to get my snow blower out Haven’t touched a shovel yet, every snow so far has been broomworthy. May try the leaf blower tomorrow - timing will suuuuuck for getting home though Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Voyager Posted January 15, 2018 Share Posted January 15, 2018 1 hour ago, canderson said: GFS looks nice for tomorrow, Voyager looks to even get close to 6”. MDT appears a solid 3-4”. It kind of hard to believe that I could possibly end up in a jackpot zone. That NEVER happens...lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Itstrainingtime Posted January 15, 2018 Share Posted January 15, 2018 Advisories up for most south and east of 81. 3"-5" is the forecast here, I'm taking the under on that one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm Posted January 15, 2018 Share Posted January 15, 2018 Advisories up for most south and east of 81. 3"-5" is the forecast here, I'm taking the under on that one. I’ll take over.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
canderson Posted January 15, 2018 Share Posted January 15, 2018 GFS appears to cut Harrisburg’s precip by more than half. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jns2183 Posted January 15, 2018 Share Posted January 15, 2018 GFS appears to cut Harrisburg’s precip by more than half.Still says 3”. The NAM (12K & 3K) seem locked in on 4”-5”. Pro Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MAG5035 Posted January 15, 2018 Author Share Posted January 15, 2018 I'm hoping I don't end up in this sucker hole between the weakening clipper (and associated downscoping off the Alleghenies) and the developing coastal low that has been depicted on most operational guidance. Bedford County to the south of me would be lucky to see an inch much less an advisory on the GFS, 3K NAM, or Euro. SREF's look better but still show the same weakness. Ratios should be pretty decent in the better snows that are supposed to develop in the Sus Valley. 700 lift isn't too strong but it's pretty widespread and corresponds to the lower end of the DGZ temp wise (generally -10 to 12ºC). Advisory totals should be pretty easily attainable. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
canderson Posted January 15, 2018 Share Posted January 15, 2018 12 minutes ago, Jns2183 said: Still says 3”. The NAM (12K & 3K) seem locked in on 4”-5” . Pro I’ll go relook, might have misread then. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard of 93 Posted January 15, 2018 Share Posted January 15, 2018 The NAM& RGEM both have the Harrisburg area around 5 inches, while the GFS & Euro we’re closer to 3 inches. I think the CTP call for 3 to 5 is a good bet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Itstrainingtime Posted January 16, 2018 Share Posted January 16, 2018 4 hours ago, Superstorm said: I’ll take over. . Horst seemed unimpressed, was calling for an inch or two this morning. No updates since though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jns2183 Posted January 16, 2018 Share Posted January 16, 2018 Saw this on Twitter. Total snowfall so far this winter. Pro Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
2001kx Posted January 16, 2018 Share Posted January 16, 2018 would guess around 2" so far and still snowing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MAG5035 Posted January 16, 2018 Author Share Posted January 16, 2018 45 minutes ago, 2001kx said: would guess around 2" so far and still snowing. Light snow falling currently. There's been pretty much a dusting of accumulation overnight as snow has been more off than on. Looks like radar is starting to solidify more down this way. Surprised CTP didn't add the rest of their NW counties to the advisory since it seems Clearfield, Elk, etc have been in some decent bursts of snow overnight. They have added the central counties to it, likely on trends from the near term guidance such as the HRRR and RAP, which in the overnight runs have been pretty robust with developing a solid shield of snow over the central counties later this morning. The frontal system has been a bit better than originally advertised with somewhat slower movement and better precip. My uncle from Paducah, KY ended up with several inches of snow from this system, with 4-7" pretty common looking at the reports in that region. I don't believe very much snow was expected there originally from what I understand. Looking at Paducah's AFD during the day yesterday they were thinking up to 1-2" and then eventually had to upgrade to winter storm warnings early Monday eve (4" is criteria down there) when a lot of 4+ reports started coming in with snow still going. I guess we'll see if this overachieving translates up this way today. Ratios in the stronger bands will be something to consider, as we could get some extra fluff factor. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm Posted January 16, 2018 Share Posted January 16, 2018 Never should underestimate jet dynamics.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Voyager Posted January 16, 2018 Share Posted January 16, 2018 Woke up to about a quarter inch so far here in Tamaqua. The snow, while light in intensity, was a bit heavier than I thought it would be at this point in time. I was expecting not much more than some very light pixie dust, but at least for now it's light and steady with what looks like decent sized flakes. That may change during the day, and the "blob", for lack of a better term, over Schuylkill County may shift east to where we see a lull in the action for a bit. Time will tell... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
2001kx Posted January 16, 2018 Share Posted January 16, 2018 2.5" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard of 93 Posted January 16, 2018 Share Posted January 16, 2018 I’m shocked that there are not more school closings in the LSV this morning. Light snow already falling & it should only increase as the day goes on. They must be worried about adjusting too many days off later in the school calendar. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Voyager Posted January 16, 2018 Share Posted January 16, 2018 2 minutes ago, Blizzard of 93 said: I’m shocked that there are not more school closings in the LSV this morning. Light snow already falling & it should only increase as the day goes on. They must be worried about adjusting too many days off later in the school calendar. Up this way, most of them announced their closings last night already. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Itstrainingtime Posted January 16, 2018 Share Posted January 16, 2018 15 minutes ago, Blizzard of 93 said: I’m shocked that there are not more school closings in the LSV this morning. Light snow already falling & it should only increase as the day goes on. They must be worried about adjusting too many days off later in the school calendar. Me too...guessing that the snow didn't start early enough? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Itstrainingtime Posted January 16, 2018 Share Posted January 16, 2018 Light snow, about a 1/2" here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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