pasnownut Posted February 23, 2018 Share Posted February 23, 2018 46 minutes ago, MAG5035 said: Muddy Februarys are worse. Haha why yes..... yes they are. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
canderson Posted February 23, 2018 Share Posted February 23, 2018 I enjoy dark, gloomy, rainy days but at this point by Sunday night I'm going to be covered in mold. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard of 93 Posted February 24, 2018 Share Posted February 24, 2018 Sign me up for the 12z Euro for next Friday & the 18z GFS for Around March 7th !!! Both events as modeled would deliver around 12 inches of snow to the Harrisburg area. This upcoming blocking pattern is going to be fun to watch unfold. I think at least 1 of these events will put CTP in the bullseye for a good March snow event ! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MAG5035 Posted February 24, 2018 Author Share Posted February 24, 2018 18z GFS has got the type of big time storm I'm talking about in LOL-range (hr 264-300) haha. I think there's a good chance in the medium-long range that we will be presented with a storm that gets blocked under given the blocking regime progged. The question will be whether it will be cold enough.. as it appears we'll still be dealing with a western trough that could force a low into attempting to cut.. and otherwise presenting a more moderate temp pattern then there otherwise would be with a western ridge present to align a direct NW flow of cold out of Canada into the central and eastern US. With the strength of the -NAO being progged, any attempt to cut will be met with likely forcing a secondary development on the coast. In the meantime, we're presented with a pretty solid general flooding threat the next few days, especially western half or so of PA but still statewide (and region wide really if you include western PA and rest of the Ohio River Basin). Flash flood guidance values are quite low. As is headwater guidance.. There are several tributaries in the Sus Basin that would be projected to initiate minor flooding with less than an inch of rainfall in up to 12 hours. Depending on where the heavier rain sets up, there could be several instances of up to moderate flooding certainly attainable for a good portion of Central PA. 6 hr Flash flood guidance (MARFC) 3 Hr Flash Flood guidance ( OHRFC) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard of 93 Posted February 24, 2018 Share Posted February 24, 2018 The best potential pattern of the year is starting in less than 1 week. The 0z Euro had an awesome “Snow -a-Cane” like solution last night that delivered about 10 inches of snow from the Susquehanna Valley on east. It stalls out & strengthens a low off the Mid-Atlantic coast & backs the precip in from off the coast. If this first chance next Friday & Saturday doesn’t come to fruition, then we have another good chance around March 7th. This blocking pattern is Exactly what history tells us to look for to get a KU type winter storm. This place will be very busy for the next 2 weeks with all of the model run swings that we will see ! Buckle Up ! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
anotherman Posted February 24, 2018 Share Posted February 24, 2018 Bring it on! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pasnownut Posted February 24, 2018 Share Posted February 24, 2018 12 minutes ago, Blizzard of 93 said: The best potential pattern of the year is starting in less than 1 week. The 0z Euro had an awesome “Snow -a-Cane” like solution last night that delivered about 10 inches of snow from the Susquehanna Valley on east. It stalls out & strengthens a low off the Mid-Atlantic coast & backs the precip in from off the coast. If this first chance next Friday & Saturday doesn’t come to fruition, then we have another good chance around March 7th. This blocking pattern is Exactly what history tells us to look for to get a KU type winter storm. This place will be very busy for the next 2 weeks with all of the model run swings that we will see ! Buckle Up ! I'll tell ya what buddy....I got dizzy from watching the loop de loop on the euro.... 1% chance of that happening, but if it did.....that would be one to remember purely from an evolution standpoint. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pasnownut Posted February 24, 2018 Share Posted February 24, 2018 and yeah we are headed into fun times starting middle of next week (at least we'll be into the mid range w/ opps). Its not a cold look, but maybe cold enough look. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
canderson Posted February 24, 2018 Share Posted February 24, 2018 We should be shoveling this rain. It’s ridiculous we are all getting 3” or whatever instead of 24-32”. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Itstrainingtime Posted February 24, 2018 Share Posted February 24, 2018 13 minutes ago, canderson said: We should be shoveling this rain. It’s ridiculous we are all getting 3” or whatever instead of 24-32”. It'll be interesting to see what happens. Rain this morning almost seems tropical with sudden downpours. Streams are running high and eventually the Susky will rise as well...I guess the threat of mainstream flooding remains low... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard of 93 Posted February 24, 2018 Share Posted February 24, 2018 46 minutes ago, canderson said: We should be shoveling this rain. It’s ridiculous we are all getting 3” or whatever instead of 24-32”. I think we’ll be shoveling snow in the first 2 weeks of March. The -NAO & MJO are heading to the promised land for snow. This pattern is just waiting to produce a blockbuster storm somewhere on the east coast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pasnownut Posted February 24, 2018 Share Posted February 24, 2018 5 minutes ago, Blizzard of 93 said: I think we’ll be shoveling snow in the first 2 weeks of March. The -NAO & MJO are heading to the promised land for snow. This pattern is just waiting to produce a blockbuster storm somewhere on the east coast. MJO is strongly in 7 and hoping it traverses to 8 in same amplitude. that would give us the cold we need. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard of 93 Posted February 24, 2018 Share Posted February 24, 2018 7 minutes ago, pasnownut said: MJO is strongly in 7 and hoping it traverses to 8 in same amplitude. that would give us the cold we need. We are no longer stuck in phase 7 after a lengthy stay. The MJO has moved into phase 8 & 1 & looks to be headed into phase 2 & 3 by mid March. These are all good phases for March cold & snow in the east. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pasnownut Posted February 24, 2018 Share Posted February 24, 2018 1 hour ago, Blizzard of 93 said: We are no longer stuck in phase 7 after a lengthy stay. The MJO has moved into phase 8 & 1 & looks to be headed into phase 2 & 3 by mid March. These are all good phases for March cold & snow in the east. Hadn't looked for a couple days, but now that i did, I'm so glad to see that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
2001kx Posted February 24, 2018 Share Posted February 24, 2018 So much F****** rain I step outside into a foot of mud...Should be snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm Posted February 24, 2018 Share Posted February 24, 2018 Euro continues to look interesting.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
2001kx Posted February 24, 2018 Share Posted February 24, 2018 9 minutes ago, Superstorm said: Euro continues to look interesting. . Looks about right = 2" here Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
canderson Posted February 25, 2018 Share Posted February 25, 2018 What killed the rain we were supposed to have overnight and today? It’s almost sunny now and we got very little rain since yesterday afternoon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
2001kx Posted February 25, 2018 Share Posted February 25, 2018 1 hour ago, canderson said: What killed the rain we were supposed to have overnight and today? It’s almost sunny now and we got very little rain since yesterday afternoon. Must be nice. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CarlislePaWx Posted February 25, 2018 Share Posted February 25, 2018 1 hour ago, canderson said: What killed the rain we were supposed to have overnight and today? It’s almost sunny now and we got very little rain since yesterday afternoon. I had 0.66" of rain since midnight so I'm not sure what you are talking about. My creek (Conodo...) is in the process of overflowing its banks right now and is continuing to rise. In the past 24 hours (since 1PM yesterday) I've had 0.83" of rain total. Meanwhile, how come everyone stopped talking about the fantastic pattern we're supposed to be going into later in the week??? Are we still on for the snow storm(s) potential? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard of 93 Posted February 25, 2018 Share Posted February 25, 2018 1 hour ago, canderson said: What killed the rain we were supposed to have overnight and today? It’s almost sunny now and we got very little rain since yesterday afternoon. It poured earlier this morning around Harrisburg.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
anotherman Posted February 25, 2018 Share Posted February 25, 2018 2 hours ago, CarlislePaWx said: I had 0.66" of rain since midnight so I'm not sure what you are talking about. My creek (Conodo...) is in the process of overflowing its banks right now and is continuing to rise. In the past 24 hours (since 1PM yesterday) I've had 0.83" of rain total. Meanwhile, how come everyone stopped talking about the fantastic pattern we're supposed to be going into later in the week??? Are we still on for the snow storm(s) potential? From my understanding, it looks like we have to wait longer than we expected. Trends not looking so great lately. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pawatch Posted February 25, 2018 Share Posted February 25, 2018 On 2/24/2018 at 9:07 AM, pasnownut said: and yeah we are headed into fun times starting middle of next week (at least we'll be into the mid range w/ opps). Its not a cold look, but maybe cold enough look. Thursday/Friday looks like there might not be much cold. Guess we will see how things look Wednesday for P-types. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WEATHERBUFF Posted February 25, 2018 Share Posted February 25, 2018 57 minutes ago, pawatch said: Thursday/Friday looks like there might not be much cold. Guess we will see how things look Wednesday for P-types. It may depend on how far north you are and also their elevation. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pasnownut Posted February 25, 2018 Share Posted February 25, 2018 2 hours ago, pawatch said: Thursday/Friday looks like there might not be much cold. Guess we will see how things look Wednesday for P-types. Yeah it will be interesting to see how this pans out. I’m a little less impressed than I was a couple days ago. Clock is ticking. Still may finish with somewhat of a bang. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
canderson Posted February 25, 2018 Share Posted February 25, 2018 5 hours ago, CarlislePaWx said: I had 0.66" of rain since midnight so I'm not sure what you are talking about. My creek (Conodo...) is in the process of overflowing its banks right now and is continuing to rise. In the past 24 hours (since 1PM yesterday) I've had 0.83" of rain total. Meanwhile, how come everyone stopped talking about the fantastic pattern we're supposed to be going into later in the week??? Are we still on for the snow storm(s) potential? I only had .35 from yesterday at 6 pm to this morning at 9 am. They cancelled the flood watches early this morning. Models had iirc forecast around 1.25 overnight into afternoon today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MAG5035 Posted February 26, 2018 Author Share Posted February 26, 2018 Model agreement is pretty solid on the general specifics of this storm system at the end of the week. This looks like a significant storm system that will come up into the midwest toward Chicago but be forced to form a secondary coastal storm due to the extremely robust NAO block that is progged to develop. We haven't had negative NAO anomalies that significant since 2010. With the block in place, the 850 U-wind anomalies (easterly flow) dumping into the NE off the Atlantic via the strong secondary coastal are progged at greater than -6 st deviations. A very strong signal for a major northeast coastal storm. This all sounds fantastic until we weigh in what we have going against us. The big one is we have no cold established or available. In the wake of the recently departed weekend system temps will trend more toward normal this week but still be biased to the + side. There's no antecedent cold,arctic air mass. The best cold temp anomalies in the hemisphere are progged to be residing in Europe and Russia/Siberia. The anomalous cold we have available on our side is being relegated to western Canada into the Pac NW due to an also very robust -PNA dumping a western trough. This is a major issue to overcome with this upcoming storm threat, which is a shame really. We're essentially eliminating the clean snowstorm option right off the bat as the strong -PNA draws the relatively strong storm system into the midwest up to at least our latitude before the NAO block forces the storm to the coast. If we had just SOME semblance of a western ridge this would be a way different outcome (probably at least some established cold in place and a further south low track). Honestly IMO we probably wouldn't benefit from a strong +PNA ridge as that and a -5 NAO would probably present a suppression problem for our region. Not trying to be all doomsday about this but just laying out the possible shortcomings of this that jumps out at me. This storm is definitely not off the table as far as getting a decent snow event. However, we will likely need to rely on the dynamics of the prospective developing coastal to deliver our snow, as the parent low initially coming up into the midwest is going to likely start things as rain at first. And we all know that can be a hit or miss ordeal. Without a good cold airmass readily able to be tapped from the developing coastal, the low levels will likely be an issue (925 to the surface) in cooling. The new Euro for example looked good at first glance in central PA, but snow maps are only showing maybe an inch or two in a thin section of the central counties. It appears 925 and surface temps were too marginal. This is a pretty close setup, I think if heavy precip and banding is present.. it probably would be enough to dynamically cool the column wherever it sets up.. and interior and elevational locations would be set to benefit the best out of that setup. Low track will be important as well. If the low cuts up and transfers too far north, we'll miss the best precip. With how strong the NAO is progged to be, there is of course the chance this trends south some in time.. which would help our chances. That wouldn't necessarily resolve our antecedent temp issues though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Atomixwx Posted February 26, 2018 Share Posted February 26, 2018 In short: It's gon' rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Itstrainingtime Posted February 26, 2018 Share Posted February 26, 2018 Horst just updated his weather discussion disco...don't read it if you're like me and hoping for more snow. In a nutshell: Rain later this week. Rain later next week. Blocking breaks down, spring potentially arrives the following week. (this is for the Lanco area, you guys up in the far interior/mountain areas could quite likely flip to snow during both storms...but unlikely to happen down this way) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CarlislePaWx Posted February 26, 2018 Share Posted February 26, 2018 Just now, maytownpawx said: Horst just updated his weather discussion disco...don't read it if you're like me and hoping for more snow. In a nutshell: Rain later this week. Rain later next week. Blocking breaks down, spring potentially arrives the following week. (this is for the Lanco area, you guys up in the far interior/mountain areas could quite likely flip to snow during both storms...but unlikely to happen down this way) Well...it was fun while it lasted. As for records from Feb I think I read a post (from djr?) that this would be a top 10 precip (liquid) month at MDT. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.