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MAG5035

Central PA - Jan/Feb 2018

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23 minutes ago, Blizzard of 93 said:

MDT recorded 3.4 inches of snow with the overnight daily report, with .34 precip. This is surprising considering the surrounding reports from all directions.

yeah, that is "surprising"....

Looking at overnights, and after a few days off, i think we'll be sniffing out our next storm.  Overnights look to continue to have a nice look to them and while i know the drill w/ LR stuff,  GEFS evolves into a pattern that says bombs away!!

So thankful for a normal winter.  It's good for the soul.  Enjoy the snow.  Gonna be gone by tomorrow.

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2 hours ago, Blizzard of 93 said:

MDT recorded 3.4 inches of snow with the overnight daily report, with .34 precip. This is surprising considering the surrounding reports from all directions.

I've spent years on here defending both CTP's discussions/forecasts and also MDT's snowfall measurements. Last evening I kind of called out CTP for their lack of timely response in issuing a warning. Now after reading this I'm calling out MDT's snowfall total. That's bunk. I ended up with just a hair under 5". The airport sits pretty squarely between myself and Canderson. If Canderson had over 5" and i had just under, I'm sorry...but the airport had more than 3.4". You have to go south of Rt. 30 in Lanco to find reports as low as the airports. 

By the way Blizzard...Euro paints a big fat 75 for me on Wednesday. Just sayin' :)

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1 hour ago, pasnownut said:

yeah, that is "surprising"....

Looking at overnights, and after a few days off, i think we'll be sniffing out our next storm.  Overnights look to continue to have a nice look to them and while i know the drill w/ LR stuff,  GEFS evolves into a pattern that says bombs away!!

So thankful for a normal winter.  It's good for the soul.  Enjoy the snow.  Gonna be gone by tomorrow.

I was part of a huge group helping by BIL move yesterday. Conversation quickly turned to snow and one of the dudes said "yeah...what do they call this...an onion snow?"

I turned around and politely said that buddy, you might be shoveling your azz off in onions in a couple of weeks...

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1 hour ago, pasnownut said:

yeah, that is "surprising"....

Looking at overnights, and after a few days off, i think we'll be sniffing out our next storm.  Overnights look to continue to have a nice look to them and while i know the drill w/ LR stuff,  GEFS evolves into a pattern that says bombs away!!

So thankful for a normal winter.  It's good for the soul.  Enjoy the snow.  Gonna be gone by tomorrow.

Joe Bastardi is fired up about the pattern for early March. The combination of the MJO moving through 8-1-2-3 along with a west based -NAO should provide the potential for a major east coast storm. 

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4 minutes ago, maytownpawx said:

I was part of a huge group helping by BIL move yesterday. Conversation quickly turned to snow and one of the dudes said "yeah...what do they call this...an onion snow?"

I turned around and politely said that buddy, you might be shoveling your azz off in onions in a couple of weeks...

It looks like I was wrong about my “no chance of 70” declaration last week! 

Tuesday & Wednesday will feel nice, but meanwhile most of us will be tracking a good winter storm in early March!

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11 hours ago, CarlislePaWx said:

Well, the snow started back up again not long after my last post several hours ago.  We had the slow-motion large wet flakes falling gracefully to the ground.  Every tree is solidly covered with snow.  The woods behind my home look like a snow-covered evergreen forest...which they aren't.  It's still snowing lightly as I write this just before 11pm.  I took another measurement and found an additional 0.3" of snow has fallen, now giving me a storm total of 6.6".  Really nice event.  Just wish it didn't have to melt and get washed away so quickly tomorrow and Monday.  Even though we're headed for the 70's next week I'd be willing to bet there's at least one more snowstorm waiting for us before winter winds down.  Just think of those great March storms in the past, including last winter!

I'm waiting until the snow completely stops before I do my meltdown.  Assuming 10:1 I should end up with another 0.66" of liquid, which brings my YTD liquid up to 6.75", definitely ahead of precip normals...at this point.  BTW, even though my temp is 30.7 I can hear water (melting snow) running down my leaders too.

Coop reports 5.5” with 0.50” liquid.   That’s 0.12” difference in such a short distance 

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3 hours ago, Blizzard of 93 said:

Joe Bastardi is fired up about the pattern for early March. The combination of the MJO moving through 8-1-2-3 along with a west based -NAO should provide the potential for a major east coast storm. 

Yeah we need amplitude for the MJO and seeing the nao Loki h more west based give me hooe for a fun finish. 

30 miles on the sleds this morning. We snuck one in between the grips of warmth

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2 hours ago, Superstorm said:

Does anyone think MDTs lower elevation and being surrounded by pavement play a role in the low measurement?


.

I think th data might be wrong, CTPs snowfall map has them at 5”.

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3 hours ago, Cashtown_Coop said:

Coop reports 5.5” with 0.50” liquid.   That’s 0.12” difference in such a short distance 

Hi again.  Well I had quite the surprise at midnight when I melted down the 6.6" of snow.  It only produced 0.45" of liquid!  That's basically 15:1 for the event.  I would appreciate MAG's or anyone else's input on my higher ratio.  The one thing I think I remember from the Jan'16 storm where there were multiple hours of 3 to 4"/hour snow rates is that my ratio for that storm was at least 12:1, maybe even higher.  Is it possible or typical when under intense snowfall rates of > 2"/hour for several hours to have the water content of that snow become drier?  That's the only thing I can use to explain the disparity.  For those of us who melt down our snow, both you (Cash) and Vogan? had ratios of around 11:1, but I don't think you were under that ridiculously intense band for 2 continuous hours like I was.

The funny thing is that I brought my tipping bucket rain gauge inside and manually tipped it during the event (simulating a heated gauge with real-time melting) and tipped it to read 0.62" of liquid at midnight.  Then I melted it down and discovered my 0.17" over-recording which was sent out to Wunderground.  It's ok.  The gauge actually needs to be recalibrated as it is currently under-recording rainfall events.  I'm just going to let it under-record the next few rain events until I catch back up to my +0.17" departure...haha.  Those purists out there, please forgive me.  If I were 15 or 20 years younger I'd be having a fit over what I had done since you can't go back into Wunderground and manually edit precip amounts.  That aspect about them still annoys me to this day!

Anyway, thanks for reading, and on to the next big one in a few weeks.  :)

 

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1 hour ago, canderson said:

I think th data might be wrong, CTPs snowfall map has them at 5”.

Yes, the Map they put out had all of Dauphin county at least in the 4-6 range for snow totals. The daily climate summary posted at 130am & the public information statement posted earlier today had MDT at only 3.4 inches, unless they update it later, which I’ve seen them do in the past.

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The GEFS at 12z is showing the impacts of the new blocking pattern that should arrive by the end of February. The snow mean jumped between Feb 28th to March 5th from nearly nothing to around 4 inches for the LSV, with more to the north & west. There are a few nice snow hits showing in this period already. It should be fun to see future runs as they start to show the potential impacts that this -NAO & good phases of the MJO could produce.

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49 minutes ago, Blizzard of 93 said:

The GEFS at 12z is showing the impacts of the new blocking pattern that should arrive by the end of February. The snow mean jumped between Feb 28th to March 5th from nearly northing to around 4 inches for the LSV, with more to the north & west.

I wonder if my company will let me stay in SoCal until April... ;)

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8 hours ago, maytownpawx said:

I was part of a huge group helping by BIL move yesterday. Conversation quickly turned to snow and one of the dudes said "yeah...what do they call this...an onion snow?"

I turned around and politely said that buddy, you might be shoveling your azz off in onions in a couple of weeks...

Yeah I’ve heard a few say it’s over. While they may be right....I just giggle to myself and smiled. 

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2 hours ago, Blizzard of 93 said:

The GEFS at 12z is showing the impacts of the new blocking pattern that should arrive by the end of February. The snow mean jumped between Feb 28th to March 5th from nearly nothing to around 4 inches for the LSV, with more to the north & west. There are a few nice snow hits showing in this period already. It should be fun to see future runs as they start to show the potential impacts that this -NAO & good phases of the MJO could produce.

Preach it brother.....

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1 hour ago, canderson said:

Only if you get a laptop ... 

My mom wants to give me hers. She hardly uses it because she hates Windows 10 and still does most everything on her old desktop.

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Just for fun, go check out the 18z GFS for around 12-13 days from now. It has a strong coastal that takes over 2 days to go up the coast due to the strong blocking. These good looks should continue to show in different variations for the period of the first week of March.

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12 hours ago, canderson said:

Early March looks promising. March 4th I think I’ll key in on. 

take it and run, you called Saturdays storm like 6 months out :lol::rolleyes:

 

I didn't measure Saturday, but multiple people around me did and the majority had 6 so thats what i'm putting in my book. i have 22" for season total so far, what are you all showing?

Between the rain and this snow, my yard is a swamp. I hope Tuesday and Wednesday dry it up a little. I'm with you guys, i think 75 is doable, at least Wednesday anyhow!

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Im tellin ya....folks here at work thing they are done with winter....

I looked at ensembles and tellies and just get giddy.  

 

I fall for it 

EVERY

STINKIN 

TIME

Man i hope it holds.  I can bear this warmup if this early March pattern half delivers what it could...

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21 minutes ago, pasnownut said:

Im tellin ya....folks here at work thing they are done with winter....

I looked at ensembles and tellies and just get giddy.  

 

I fall for it 

EVERY

STINKIN 

TIME

Man i hope it holds.  I can bear this warmup if this early March pattern half delivers what it could...

I am lock and step with you pal. I've been watching this potential pattern since the first indications started showing up weeks ago. T minus about 2 weeks and counting. So close...yet so freaking far away.

Everyone here at work is talking spring today as well. I usually jump in ruin their little fun, but no more. I'm staying silent. Watching. Hoping. And waiting for that day when I sit by quietly and listen for one of them to say "hey...did you hear that it might actually snow on such and such day?" And I'll smile. And I'll wait some more. I'll wait for one of them to get up the courage and come ask the old man who's known as the big office weather weenie and say "Mike...it's not really going to snow again is it?" 

And then I'll look at them with a straight face and say eh...probably not. I mean after all...you all said winter's over, right?

And then the next day...I'll lower the boom. And then watch chaos ensue. God I hope it happens...

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20 minutes ago, maytownpawx said:

I am lock and step with you pal. I've been watching this potential pattern since the first indications started showing up weeks ago. T minus about 2 weeks and counting. So close...yet so freaking far away.

Everyone here at work is talking spring today as well. I usually jump in ruin their little fun, but no more. I'm staying silent. Watching. Hoping. And waiting for that day when I sit by quietly and listen for one of them to say "hey...did you hear that it might actually snow on such and such day?" And I'll smile. And I'll wait some more. I'll wait for one of them to get up the courage and come ask the old man who's known as the big office weather weenie and say "Mike...it's not really going to snow again is it?" 

And then I'll look at them with a straight face and say eh...probably not. I mean after all...you all said winter's over, right?

And then the next day...I'll lower the boom. And then watch chaos ensue. God I hope it happens...

Holy heck....I have a long lost twin (except I really struggle w/ keeping quiet when a good pattern/storm is looming-shocker i know).

I can tell you how I've learned to prefer crow served up as well.....

but when it works and it happens (which I'm usually good at metoring my doses of digs at the warmies)....i relish the moments when I get to drop the hammer, because for 9 months out of the year, i hear the gloating about the warm crap and just wipe my sweaty brow and suck it up.  They know these few precious months mean a lot to me (and actually I'm not alone here) as we have a group of snowhounds that come to me for the "well...whats the call". 

I tell em everytime....its up in the air...:P

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On 2/18/2018 at 8:50 AM, Blizzard of 93 said:

Joe Bastardi is fired up about the pattern for early March. The combination of the MJO moving through 8-1-2-3 along with a west based -NAO should provide the potential for a major east coast storm. 

As long as he bans the term "American Pie February". This is the second year in a row he's used it and we've had record breaking warmth in both haha (esp after tomorrows projected highs).

The Phase 7 MJO really did slow this whole process down. It has spent every single day in February in the phase and counting. If it would have more quickly progressed to 8 like it went through 5 and 6, we might have been talking about this shift in the pattern already occurring. We are starting to see most guidance project it going through at least 8-1 now instead of going into the circle, so that's a plus. They are also starting to show this -NAO development a lot more solidly now and it certainly looks like the real deal. There's a lot in this potential upcoming pattern that screams volatility and we have really extreme teleconnection indices being projected. PNA as low as -6 (ESRL site) , NAO to -4 (also ESRL), AO diving down towards -5. The PNA is also supposed to be swinging toward neutral (a major swing in amplitude) as the NAO dives. So we're talking a massive shift in the pattern, and usually these types of shifts turn into big storms. So certainly the threat is there, and now I think the big coastal threat will be on the table. The presence of a blocking regime via the NAO allows for the longer duration coastals with the anomalous easterly flow from the Atlantic that are hallmarks of the big ones, and something we've really been lacking this winter to this point. After worrying that the NAO amplitude might not be enough to offset the really negative PNA, I also wonder about the projected amplitude of the NAO now if the PNA neutralizes. A -3 to -4 type NAO invites the possibility of storms getting suppressed below us, or at least the prospect of a confluent type setup that has a razor edge in the event of a big snow event. At any rate it's going to be interesting to watch how this all shakes out as we wait out this warm week. Model forecasts are going to be highly changeable. As such, individual events that will prob pop up in the longer range shouldn't be the main focus. Rather, the big picture of the pattern should be first as it comes into focus. Things may pop up in the medium range as well, much like our last event did. 

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Here's an excerpt from Horst today on the coming weeks:

Next week will be a period of pattern evolution...a gradual, but discontinuous shift towards a somewhat colder pattern for the first week or so of March. A cold front may arrive Sunday evening with a shower or t-storm, ahead of a possible clipper system next Tuesday (a chance of snow for parts of PA...perhaps even here). Mild air may try to battle in for a day around month's end, however, the jet stream pattern will be shifting significantly with a large ridge building over Greenland, the polar vortex building back across Hudson Bay, and a complex split flow attacking the west coast of North America. As of today (Feb 19th), it's impossible to say just how early March will play out...but given the changes I see coming it does increase the odds of an early March cold spell and another snow event (perhaps significant). Stay tuned! --Horst

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