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Central PA - Jan/Feb 2018


MAG5035

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2 hours ago, heavy_wx said:

The GEFS has been showing the amplification of a ridge over the north Atlantic; this ridge starts to retrograde/build westward over Greenland by the 10-15 day time-frame. WIth that feature, it's then a question of how much does a trough from the tropospheric PV over Northern Canada build southeastward upstream of that ridge. That type of upper-level trough would allow for a better cold air source in the Northeast US. The operational GFS is also suggesting some strengthening of the subtropical jet around the 15-day time-frame, another factor that may give us more luck with storm chances.

In any case, March is often a relatively snowy month climatologically, especially in the northern and high-elevation portions of Central PA.

Great to hear from you heavy.

Yeah as the strato appears split right now at least the odds of getting the downwelling on our side of the globe has some merit. Just wish the PNA would cooperate is it would help to give more time to buckle the flow and let em grow a bit. 

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6 hours ago, maytownpawx said:

There are a lot of people I would love to troll if we're shoveling a crap ton of snow in a few weeks...

Lol if the 12z Euro has it's way, you'll be able to do that in a few days. It pulled the canderson P-Day miracle out a hat with a significant snowstorm for most of our region (heavy snow favoring southern half). 95 corridor from Baltimore to Boston gets whacked. There's support from the Canadian which also has a similar big snowstorm. Some rumblings of it on GEFS ensemble guidance but GFS/GEFS not really there with it too much at the moment (too far southeast/weak). We're talking mid-range with this.. approx in the 108-120hr range so it's certainly a viable threat if it starts showing up more consistently in the next model cycle or so. This would be on the heels of the next system (mostly rain) that should briefly drop in a frontal passage with some decent cold. Timing is big, so is amplitude.. Euro simply has a more amplified shortwave than the GFS with some southern stream interaction despite a zonal and progressive flow. It's enough to fire off a bigger storm. Will be interesting to see what further runs do with this. Models had been playing around with a potential system but much further south. 

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59 minutes ago, sauss06 said:

The temps look to be in the mid 30s Saturday, or am i looking wrong

Yeah no doubt temp profile is not ideal, but the front will have pushed through, and while the surface may be lagging (which I know hurts backyard totals), the column seems ok up here, so I'd think you'd lose some early, and then start counting vertical flake counts shortly after... :)

I also saw the 6z GFS and it is less amped ( but like showme, i'm no fan of off hour runs, and only look at them for continuity of trends).  I'm hoping the 12z gets back on track, as while I know the Euro is still king in many minds, the GFS now has some street cred.

Nut

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19 minutes ago, pasnownut said:

Nooners keeping hope alive for a Saturday Night Special for many of us. 

Will be interesting to see what happens.  Also looks like late next week starts the trend back to winter...or whats left of it.

Nut

Anything we get this weekend is a pure bonus. It would be awesome to score during such a hostile pattern. Right now our area looks pretty good, still a good ways to go yet though. 

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1 hour ago, maytownpawx said:

Also...watch temperatures tomorrow. Think many southern tier areas get well into the 60s and even approach 70 on a few thermometers...

A friend of mine and i were just discussing what impact Thursday and Fridays Temperatures may have on the Saturday potential. Saying that, we've all done this dance before being warm the day before a nice snowfall. 

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13 minutes ago, sauss06 said:

A friend of mine and i were just discussing what impact Thursday and Fridays Temperatures may have on the Saturday potential. Saying that, we've all done this dance before being warm the day before a nice snowfall. 

Dont forget Friday night will get below freezing (25ish), so it will help to cool surface in advance.  25 in mid feb will firm up the base nicely.  likely will have cloud cover by early morning, I'd think we wouldnt waste much.


 

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30 minutes ago, sauss06 said:

A friend of mine and i were just discussing what impact Thursday and Fridays Temperatures may have on the Saturday potential. Saying that, we've all done this dance before being warm the day before a nice snowfall. 

It was just a few weeks ago where the temp was almost 60 and then the temps dropped like a rock and we got a nice snow storm.

3 days ago we was talking about winter being over and BOOM!! This storm pops up..You never know.

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4 minutes ago, pawatch said:

It was just a few weeks ago where the temp was almost 60 and then the temps dropped like a rock and we got a nice snow storm.

3 days ago we was talking about winter being over and BOOM!! This storm pops up..You never know.

i agree 100%. Heck we can go all the way back into the 90s prior to one of our "big ones" with warm temps just prior to. 

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4 hours ago, Flatheadsickness said:

o yes I can remember a hand full of the best feb and march storms with warm air leading up to the storm.  

 

yup....and I can also hearing the snow screaming "Im melting" after some as well.  Would be nice to have some come, and stay for a while for sure.  So far with the exception of the cold shot of late Dec., the pattern hasn't been one for this.  Take what we can get and it is what it is.

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2 hours ago, canderson said:

My storm is coming along nicely. 

The Canderson storm President’s Weekend storm is alive & well !

Most models today have the LSV getting between 3-6 inches of snow. CTP in their discussion seemed confident in what they termed a light to moderate snow event. Hopefully the 0z runs tonight keep it going!

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43 minutes ago, Blizzard of 93 said:

The Canderson storm President’s Weekend storm is alive & well !

Most models today have the LSV getting between 3-6 inches of snow. CTP in their discussion seemed confident in what they termed a light to moderate snow event. Hopefully the 0z runs tonight keep it going!

Well...so far...the NAM did not keep it going. 

Edit: It still looks okay, just less snow than 18z. 

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