jm1220 Posted February 7, 2018 Share Posted February 7, 2018 3 minutes ago, canderson said: WOAH CBS 21’s Tom Russell says State College gets 1’. Highly doubtful. If the new NAM’s right, no one south of I-80 probably gets more than 3-4” and much of that would be sleet on the way to a nasty period of ZR. Hopefully it’s wrong, but mid level warm layers are always an issue in PA in SWFEs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sauss06 Posted February 7, 2018 Share Posted February 7, 2018 I'm honestly expecting a duplicate of Sunday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CarlislePaWx Posted February 7, 2018 Share Posted February 7, 2018 1 minute ago, sauss06 said: I'm honestly expecting a duplicate of Sunday. I'll take a duplicate of Sunday. 3.7" of snow followed by sleet then a little zr and ending right as temp hits 32.0. BTW, I wanted to mention this earlier. The total liquid from the Sunday event measured 0.71" which was even wetter than the wettest the NAM ever had. Just a few days earlier everyone was mentioning about how dry the model(s) were and that the gulf connection looked very poor. Then, all of the sudden, amounts increased dramatically, with nearly 3/4" of liquid! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
canderson Posted February 7, 2018 Share Posted February 7, 2018 4 minutes ago, sauss06 said: I'm honestly expecting a duplicate of Sunday. My gut says less snow, more sleet and zr. 1.5” snow, 1” sleet afd a decent amount of zr to Glacier everything. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pasnownut Posted February 7, 2018 Share Posted February 7, 2018 5 minutes ago, sauss06 said: I'm honestly expecting a duplicate of Sunday. Me too. THIS is what normal winters were like for me growing up. Spectator sport....BUT....now I can drive. Tioga here we come..... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard of 93 Posted February 7, 2018 Share Posted February 7, 2018 16 minutes ago, sauss06 said: I'm honestly expecting a duplicate of Sunday. I agree 100 % Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
skiier04 Posted February 7, 2018 Share Posted February 7, 2018 41 minutes ago, canderson said: WOAH CBS 21’s Tom Russell says State College gets 1’. LOL that's hilarious. Yeah seen this one too many times before. Expecting 2-4" then a bunch of sleet up here. Short range models cluing in on the upper level warm nose late in the game as usual. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CarlislePaWx Posted February 7, 2018 Share Posted February 7, 2018 At this point with the NAM, the 3k NAM and the HRRR giving MDT 0.2", 1.1", and 1.4" of snow total respectively, all then follow with between 0.4" and 0.6" of plain rain, it's pretty hard to imagine that the GFS isn't going to start the massive cave to the warm side in the next 30 minutes. All the models have something other than snow falling by no later than 9:00am, with the NAM having it just raining by 7:00am at MDT. That's almost inconceivable at this point that the transition over would take place that quickly. The HRRR has plain rain falling throughout the LSV by 10:00am. Needless to say, anxious to see what the GFS is about to do. Tom Russell's forecast for LSV looks optimistic for snow at this point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
canderson Posted February 7, 2018 Share Posted February 7, 2018 State is closed tomorrow. Im gonna laugh my ass off if by on the meager snow is washed away. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CarlislePaWx Posted February 7, 2018 Share Posted February 7, 2018 OMG...unbelievable...the 0Z GFS still has the exact same amount of snow for MDT as it had for 18Z: 5.1" of snow!!!! How is this possible? I hate to say it since it's been said many times before but.....will the GFS score the proverbial coups with this storm????? WOW. BTW...was just outside and still see stars in the partially clear skies. Now down to 24/17. That would certainly lead to at the very least a longer period of freezing rain before any change over to plain rain. But, what if the GFS is right???? 10:1 had 5.1" at MDT, Kuchera, below, even better at 5.3" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
canderson Posted February 7, 2018 Share Posted February 7, 2018 GFS has done well this winter, let’s hope it’s not off its rocker. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard of 93 Posted February 7, 2018 Share Posted February 7, 2018 7 minutes ago, CarlislePaWx said: OMG...unbelievable...the 0Z GFS still has the exact same amount of snow for MDT as it had for 18Z: 5.1" of snow!!!! How is this possible? I hate to say it since it's been said many times before but.....will the GFS score the proverbial coups with this storm????? WOW. BTW...was just outside and still see stars in the partially clear skies. Now down to 24/17. That would certainly lead to at the very least a longer period of freezing rain before any change over to plain rain. But, what if the GFS is right???? The precip is going to come in & hit us with intense rates from the onset. Just like Sunday, I think it will snow at 1 inch per hour rates for 4 or 5 hours, then we mix & the maybe some plain rain to end it in the afternoon. The cold usually holds in the Susquehanna valley longer than forecasted. This is not some strong low cutting to Erie. The GFS have the low tomorrow staying south of the MD line. The GFS has been very consistent with the snow amounts for the last few days for our area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CarlislePaWx Posted February 7, 2018 Share Posted February 7, 2018 Thanks, Bliz. I agree with you. I want to believe that ultimately the GFS will be right. We'll see what happens come morning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
2001kx Posted February 7, 2018 Share Posted February 7, 2018 New map from DT Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Itstrainingtime Posted February 7, 2018 Share Posted February 7, 2018 While I agree that many in the greater Harrisburg area will experience a significant amount of frozen precip, I'm going to side with Canderson that most will see LESS snow than Sunday. I believe the warm tongue aloft will move much faster and farther north than many expect. Just for fun, I'll say that everyone S&E of UNV will receive 4" or less. I'll go with 2.5" in Carlisle and Marysville, and I'll go with 1.4" officially at MDT. Please troll me hard if you significantly exceed those amounts. I am certainly no expert and those numbers and thoughts are based solely on instinct and a half-century plus of living here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted February 7, 2018 Share Posted February 7, 2018 2 hours ago, skiier04 said: LOL that's hilarious. Yeah seen this one too many times before. Expecting 2-4" then a bunch of sleet up here. Short range models cluing in on the upper level warm nose late in the game as usual. Yup. We both know all too well how these go in State College. One thing to look for is a decent period of freezing rain vs a lot of sleet. The warm layer seems lower in the column than usual. I'm thinking it'll be hard to find totals above 4" anywhere south of I-80. And a lot of these snow maps count sleet as snow, and underestimate the mid level warm push. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Itstrainingtime Posted February 7, 2018 Share Posted February 7, 2018 12 minutes ago, jm1220 said: Yup. We both know all too well how these go in State College. One thing to look for is a decent period of freezing rain vs a lot of sleet. The warm layer seems lower in the column than usual. I'm thinking it'll be hard to find totals above 4" anywhere south of I-80. And a lot of these snow maps count sleet as snow, and underestimate the mid level warm push. If you're right you just made me look smart. Not very often that happens though. (me being smart) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wmsptwx Posted February 7, 2018 Share Posted February 7, 2018 How is IPT looking...out all day. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Itstrainingtime Posted February 7, 2018 Share Posted February 7, 2018 2 minutes ago, Wmsptwx said: How is IPT looking...out all day. Ice, ice, baby... You probably see 4"-5" of snow followed by extended icing. That my friend...is my guess. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wmsptwx Posted February 7, 2018 Share Posted February 7, 2018 Yuck..guess Ill take odds, Williamsport usually is money for mostly snow in these deals. Why in the heck do we have warning for 4 inches...seems silly lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Itstrainingtime Posted February 7, 2018 Share Posted February 7, 2018 5 minutes ago, Wmsptwx said: Yuck..guess Ill take odds, Williamsport usually is money for mostly snow in these deals. Why in the heck do we have warning for 4 inches...seems silly lol. You don't have a warning for 4". That is only my guess. I think snow amounts are going to be lower than a lot of us are hoping for. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
meteo Posted February 7, 2018 Share Posted February 7, 2018 It's already pinging here from the start with sleet Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
canderson Posted February 7, 2018 Share Posted February 7, 2018 CTP downgraded HBG forecast to <1” snow fwiw. Overnight Snow. Low around 23. Light east wind. Chance of precipitation is 80%. Total nighttime snow accumulation of less than one inch possible. Wednesday Snow, freezing rain, and sleet before 10am, then periods of rain or freezing rain between 10am and 1pm, then periods of rain after 1pm. High near 35. Light and variable wind. Chance of precipitation is 100%. New ice accumulation of less than a 0.1 of an inch possible. New snow and sleet accumulation of less than one inch possible. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Voyager Posted February 7, 2018 Share Posted February 7, 2018 They dropped Tamaqua to 1-3 as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MAG5035 Posted February 7, 2018 Author Share Posted February 7, 2018 Yea it's pinging right off the bat here in Altoona, the heavy precip may cool the column off some to go to snow.. but not a good start to this event to be able to get some decent accums down. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
canderson Posted February 7, 2018 Share Posted February 7, 2018 Sleeting, didnt start as snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard of 93 Posted February 7, 2018 Share Posted February 7, 2018 GFS at 6z is holding firm & has Harrisburg at 3 inches of Kuchera ratio snow, & even more if you use the standard ratio map. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Flatheadsickness Posted February 7, 2018 Share Posted February 7, 2018 Started as sleet also here in Newcumberland. Radar shows snow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Flatheadsickness Posted February 7, 2018 Share Posted February 7, 2018 I went for a walk just before it started a it took all but 15 mins for a very slick glaze to form on the roads here Drive with extreme caution. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Voyager Posted February 7, 2018 Share Posted February 7, 2018 Started out here in Camp Hill as sleet mixed with freezing rain... 36 minutes ago, canderson said: Sleeting, didnt start as snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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