Wmsptwx Posted February 3, 2018 Share Posted February 3, 2018 Its a dud. Next! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pawatch Posted February 3, 2018 Share Posted February 3, 2018 24 minutes ago, Wmsptwx said: Its a dud. Next! I'll wait till tomorrow before I call it a dud. Looks like cold air from the north will be pushing in tomorrow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pawatch Posted February 3, 2018 Share Posted February 3, 2018 Nam 3KM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
canderson Posted February 3, 2018 Share Posted February 3, 2018 GFS says the NAM is over saturated lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wmsptwx Posted February 3, 2018 Share Posted February 3, 2018 GFS has been really consistent. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
canderson Posted February 3, 2018 Share Posted February 3, 2018 3 minutes ago, Wmsptwx said: GFS has been really consistent. It’s by far the best model this year. You can ignore everything else - esp the euro. Ithandkes these waves which we’ve had all season very well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pasnownut Posted February 3, 2018 Share Posted February 3, 2018 2 hours ago, pawatch said: It looks like the main low heads up west of Buffalo. Is it even going to come close to the secondary? I thought it look like the storm could be a straight shot from NY to Maine. Also doesn't look like much precipitation, and the icing line appears to keep moving west. Now that we have sampling will the models start having a better picture and adjust good/bad. There is a northern and southern vort and the northern one looks to be the stronger. They do not look to phase in...hence the lesser qpf distribution. The northern low is killing the midlevels and as there is no hp in place to hold the cold, it gets bullied outta the way. Had the southern storm been the main show it had a chance to stay south of us and not flood mid levels further north which while still dealing with mixing might have minimized damage. That’s how I see it anyway. I think goalposts are narrowing as there’s not much surprise left based on current evolution. I wanna be so wrong (and if I am someone feel free to chime in), but am fearful it’s close to reality. I’d expect a tick se tomorrow but likely not enough to save me and some others other than some pitty cat paws Lets hope for surprises. Gnight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowalot Posted February 3, 2018 Share Posted February 3, 2018 11 hours ago, maytownpawx said: Good for you! Wife and I always have a great time at the Fulton. Welcome to Lancaster. Great show. Saw it Tuesday! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard of 93 Posted February 3, 2018 Share Posted February 3, 2018 The overnight models came in a little colder for the Super Bowl Sunday storm. Most bring around 2 inches of snow to the Harrisburg area. If the best precip arrives in a 6 hour thump like the Euro shows for Sunday afternoon, I doubt that the Harrisburg area flips to rain until the end when the rates drop off. The storm for this coming Wednesday also trended in a very positive direction for CTP. Most models have the low tracking further southeast, which keeps the cold in longer. The I-80 crew could really cash in if this trend continues. I don’t think that those us us north of the PA turnpike are out of the game for a few inches of snow before any mix or changeover takes place. The EPS had around 40 of the 51 ensemble members showing at least a few inches of snow for the Harrisburg area by next Thursday am. This upcoming pattern will be very interesting to track, & hopefully most of us can get some snow on the board with these 2 events this week! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MAG5035 Posted February 3, 2018 Author Share Posted February 3, 2018 3 hours ago, Blizzard of 93 said: The overnight models came in a little colder for the Super Bowl Sunday storm. Most bring around 2 inches of snow to the Harrisburg area. If the best precip arrives in a 6 hour thump like the Euro shows for Sunday afternoon, I doubt that the Harrisburg area flips to rain until the end when the rates drop off. The storm for this coming Wednesday also trended in a very positive direction for CTP. Most models have the low tracking further southeast, which keeps the cold in longer. The I-80 crew could really cash in if this trend continues. I don’t think that those us us north of the PA turnpike are out of the game for a few inches of snow before any mix or changeover takes place. The EPS had around 40 of the 51 ensemble members showing at least a few inches of snow for the Harrisburg area by next Thursday am. This upcoming pattern will be very interesting to track, & hopefully most of us can get some snow on the board with these 2 events this week! Euro had a nice front end thump of warm advection snows for a most of the region with the mid-week storm. That's already progress from the solutions it had with a cutting system and it has settled in around where other guidance has it currently. Also starting to see more high support to the north as well on guidance, so could be interesting. That one should be a more moisture laden system than tomorrow's. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pawatch Posted February 3, 2018 Share Posted February 3, 2018 Mag The 850 looks pretty cold for Wednesday. Also looks like things is starting to set up today for tomorrow's storm. Just not a whole lot of precipitation. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Atomixwx Posted February 3, 2018 Share Posted February 3, 2018 12 hours ago, sauss06 said: I think I have 1 spot in my yard with a lil snow, you want me to text you a picture of that ? Text him a picture of your balls instead. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pasnownut Posted February 3, 2018 Share Posted February 3, 2018 18 minutes ago, Atomixwx said: Text him a picture of your balls instead. alrighty then.... sauss....I'm gonna be fine buddy. Text me a pic of your beer chillin the snow tomorrow. Mine will be chillin in a puddle . hehe Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pasnownut Posted February 3, 2018 Share Posted February 3, 2018 1 hour ago, MAG5035 said: Euro had a nice front end thump of warm advection snows for a most of the region with the mid-week storm. That's already progress from the solutions it had with a cutting system and it has settled in around where other guidance has it currently. Also starting to see more high support to the north as well on guidance, so could be interesting. That one should be a more moisture laden system than tomorrow's. yeah I saw that, but lets just say im skeptical...snakebit whatever.... Im likely toast for that one anyway, but hope the trend helps you Central peeps Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pawatch Posted February 3, 2018 Share Posted February 3, 2018 2 minutes ago, pasnownut said: alrighty then.... sauss....I'm gonna be fine buddy. Text me a pic of your beer chillin the snow tomorrow. Mine will be chillin in a puddle . hehe You need to make a trip up north. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pasnownut Posted February 3, 2018 Share Posted February 3, 2018 5 minutes ago, pawatch said: You need to make a trip up north. yeah man. Next 2 weekend i hope to do just that. Was just hoping to have a little backyard fluffage. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
anotherman Posted February 3, 2018 Share Posted February 3, 2018 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pasnownut Posted February 3, 2018 Share Posted February 3, 2018 9 hours ago, Wmsptwx said: GFS has been really consistent. OTOH all models have consistently had you sitting in the catbird seat for this one. I'm not sure if you debbie downing your way into a nice surprise, or if you are just wishing it away. If you dont want the snow, lets trade houses tomorrow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pawatch Posted February 3, 2018 Share Posted February 3, 2018 5 minutes ago, anotherman said: Cranky is always a good read. Looks like we got some clippers heading our way. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pasnownut Posted February 3, 2018 Share Posted February 3, 2018 1 minute ago, anotherman said: Yeah its been getting some convo from HM and a few others, but unfortunately there can be lag time for downwelling to show up. Ive read 2 weeks to 4/5 weeks. Lets hope its quick. Would be nice. A cold @ss stormy spring would kick us square in the chicklets. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pawatch Posted February 3, 2018 Share Posted February 3, 2018 Keep an eye on how much the model runs change today for tomorrow. I know it is almost go time...Think were going to see colder. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard of 93 Posted February 3, 2018 Share Posted February 3, 2018 54 minutes ago, pawatch said: Keep an eye on how much the model runs change today for tomorrow. I know it is almost go time...Think were going to see colder. The 12z 3k NAM & the 12z RGEM say that you are correct with the colder trend! The NAM has 2-3 inches from roughly I-81 to the northwest around Harrisburg, & 3-6 closer to I-80. The RGEM is even colder& further southeast with frozen precip & has a bullseye of 6 inches near Harrisburg! Let’s go team Canada! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowPlowGuy88 Posted February 3, 2018 Share Posted February 3, 2018 23 minutes ago, Blizzard of 93 said: The 12z 3k NAM & the 12z RGEM say that you are correct with the colder trend! The NAM has 2-3 inches from roughly I-81 to the northwest around Harrisburg, & 3-6 closer to I-80. The RGEM is even colder& further southeast with frozen precip & has a bullseye of 6 inches near Harrisburg! Let’s go team Canada! I’ll take the RGEM solution. I’m an eagles fan but we’re killing it this winter with snow and ice mitigation. Definitely making up for the last two lackluster plow seasons. I’m an eagles fan but my truck has a radio, lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wmsptwx Posted February 3, 2018 Share Posted February 3, 2018 Odd WWA advisory screw zone for IPT and UNV. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pasnownut Posted February 3, 2018 Share Posted February 3, 2018 3 minutes ago, Wmsptwx said: Odd WWA advisory screw zone for IPT and UNV. I'll still take what you are getting (2-4) over what I'm getting......screwed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wmsptwx Posted February 3, 2018 Share Posted February 3, 2018 Why no advisory for 2 to 4? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Itstrainingtime Posted February 3, 2018 Share Posted February 3, 2018 9 minutes ago, Wmsptwx said: Why no advisory for 2 to 4? Perhaps it's not enough snow in the amount of time it will fall to meet the WWA threshold? It does seem odd, though the advisories to your south and east seem warranted with the amount of sleet and freezing rain expected. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wmsptwx Posted February 3, 2018 Share Posted February 3, 2018 Weird bc most models have us better qpf wise than true central. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
canderson Posted February 3, 2018 Share Posted February 3, 2018 Driving to Lancaster around noon tomorrow, hope roads aren’t icey! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pasnownut Posted February 3, 2018 Share Posted February 3, 2018 59 minutes ago, Wmsptwx said: Why no advisory for 2 to 4? That is strange. I wouldn’t worry about it. You should be in a nice spot 18z gfs juice juiced up a bit as well. Please enjoy it for me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.