pasnownut Posted February 2, 2018 Share Posted February 2, 2018 1 hour ago, anotherman said: Did they just warm everything up or is there no precip? Northern stream low wants to be the bully and warms mid/low levels in the SE. Much of the state is still fine for snow. oops. Didn’t see the boss already told you. Thx mag. U da man. Can I trade houses with anyone NW it poconos for the next week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pawatch Posted February 2, 2018 Share Posted February 2, 2018 Thanks Mag for your thoughts! Myself I was thinking by tomorrow morning we would know how most of the pieces are gonna fit. NWS 1-5" that's a pretty safe forecast Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pasnownut Posted February 2, 2018 Share Posted February 2, 2018 1 hour ago, pawatch said: Thanks Mag for your thoughts! Myself I was thinking by tomorrow morning we would know how most of the pieces are gonna fit. NWS 1-5" that's a pretty safe forecast better than mine...lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pasnownut Posted February 2, 2018 Share Posted February 2, 2018 FWIW 12z GFS (the new King) has ticked a bit colder at 700/850's for Sunday, so while some say were cooked. I say....not yet. small differences make a big difference in many of our yards....so thats why I'm saying it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wmsptwx Posted February 2, 2018 Share Posted February 2, 2018 Qpf looking meager on GFS though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Itstrainingtime Posted February 2, 2018 Share Posted February 2, 2018 5 minutes ago, Wmsptwx said: Qpf looking meager on GFS though. Yes. We've lost a lot of the southern stream connection to the gulf. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pasnownut Posted February 2, 2018 Share Posted February 2, 2018 7 minutes ago, Wmsptwx said: Qpf looking meager on GFS though. I think thats normal bias for it at this juncture. I'm more worried about thermal profiles. Whether its 3 or 8" of snow is irrelevant to many in here. Most of us want the big numbers but are still trying to pull of a second snow on the tail end of what was to be torchmageddon. ya know....spittin in the faces of those warm model runs of a couple weeks ago....lord knows we get plenty of warm spitballs on a daily basis it seems. heheh Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wmsptwx Posted February 2, 2018 Share Posted February 2, 2018 Hope it works out, just dont like combo of marginal temps with light precip. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pasnownut Posted February 2, 2018 Share Posted February 2, 2018 14 minutes ago, Wmsptwx said: Hope it works out, just dont like combo of marginal temps with light precip. Can’t argue there but it’s all we got. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wmsptwx Posted February 2, 2018 Share Posted February 2, 2018 Euro must have been garbage lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pasnownut Posted February 2, 2018 Share Posted February 2, 2018 24 minutes ago, Wmsptwx said: Euro must have been garbage lol. its been garbage all winter..... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MAG5035 Posted February 2, 2018 Author Share Posted February 2, 2018 39 minutes ago, Wmsptwx said: Euro must have been garbage lol. Well it's certainly not great (48hr QPF), though it did produce about 2" of snow (10-1) for most of the region but Laurel's and NE PA were the only areas that did any better than that. Not a fan of the QPF hole in the central counties. Euro was one of the couple models that was resisting that drastic of a downsloping shadow so not enthused that it's showing up on it now in the short term. Still cuts the mid-week storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pasnownut Posted February 2, 2018 Share Posted February 2, 2018 13 minutes ago, MAG5035 said: Well it's certainly not great (48hr QPF), though it did produce about 2" of snow (10-1) for most of the region but Laurel's and NE PA were the only areas that did any better than that. Not a fan of the QPF hole in the central counties. Euro was one of the couple models that was resisting that drastic of a downsloping shadow so not enthused that it's showing up on it now in the short term. Still cuts the mid-week storm. In fairness, I busted on the Euro because of its traditional "king" status, as the Euro has struggled more than "normal"...whatever that is anymore. With exception of the GFS, they all have. That downsloping IMO is because the northern stream LP is staying dominant, so its qpf distribution follow something similar to a standard clipper where i get scraps at best. I've been hoping the NS low woould poop out and the southern stream would ramp up, but 18Z NAM's showing nothing of the sort. Do you agree, and how bad do you think this can get w/ antecedent airmass having little staying power? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
canderson Posted February 2, 2018 Share Posted February 2, 2018 Going to have to be in Lancaster Sunday afternoon and was a bit worried about the safety of driving down. I feel pretty confident our drive there and back will be nothing too bad, especially with the roads vacant because the Super Bowl. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pasnownut Posted February 2, 2018 Share Posted February 2, 2018 2 minutes ago, canderson said: Going to have to be in Lancaster Sunday afternoon and was a bit worried about the safety of driving down. I feel pretty confident our drive there and back will be nothing too bad, especially with the roads vacant because the Super Bowl. We've been out of this for a day now.... you win....again. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Atomixwx Posted February 2, 2018 Share Posted February 2, 2018 7 minutes ago, canderson said: Going to have to be in Lancaster Sunday afternoon and was a bit worried about the safety of driving down. I feel pretty confident our drive there and back will be nothing too bad, especially with the roads vacant because the Super Bowl. You need to stay the **** home some. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Atomixwx Posted February 2, 2018 Share Posted February 2, 2018 22 minutes ago, MAG5035 said: Not a fan of the QPF hole in the central counties. Why? This seems to be the case lately. The area from Bedford up to about Lock Haven seems to be an island of evaporative power. This would just be more of the same. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
canderson Posted February 2, 2018 Share Posted February 2, 2018 2 minutes ago, Atomixwx said: You need to stay the **** home some. Ha! I go crazy if I sit at home more than like 4 hours at a time - I have to be out and about doing something. Sunday is seeing Mousetrap at the Fulton! We still have that Presidents' Day snowstorm I'm banking on ... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
canderson Posted February 2, 2018 Share Posted February 2, 2018 7 minutes ago, pasnownut said: We've been out of this for a day now.... you win....again. Winning ... by losing. I'm like a Nunes memo or something. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Atomixwx Posted February 2, 2018 Share Posted February 2, 2018 22 minutes ago, canderson said: Winning ... by losing. I'm like a Nunes memo or something. You are fake news. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MAG5035 Posted February 2, 2018 Author Share Posted February 2, 2018 2 minutes ago, Atomixwx said: Why? This seems to be the case lately. The area from Bedford up to about Lock Haven seems to be an island of evaporative power. This would just be more of the same. Not suggesting the Euro is full of it with the QPF hole if that's how you read it. I'm not a fan of it because it would probably happen with that solution and the precip hole's over my head lol. Hey I'm almost as much of a snow fan as snownut haha. It has just been a result of the storm track this winter so far and lack of storms that draw moisture from the Gulf and/or Atlantic. Most of our systems have been progressive weak northern stream waves that drop down from western Canada and with most of them the parent low pressure has went above PA. You usually want clipper type lows to at least go below PA to maintain the best snows across PA. Without any good moisture source the mean westerly flow has been hard on getting decent snows in that particular area. The downslope off the Alleghenies kill the precip. This system finally has a chance to pull up more meaningful moisture from the Gulf but if it's too disorganized/progressive we're going to have to rely on the snows produced from the northern stream wave and we'll end up with the precip hole once again. 18z NAM coming in looks better precip wise, but the stronger SW flow transporting the Gulf moisture up into PA and a dominant northern low is also transporting P-type issues all the way to IPT. This has turned into a tough setup since there's no high to supply cold air and no or late secondary low development. I am kinda concerned this ends up a slightly colder/wetter version of yesterday's system, which might not be enough for the LSV. We are starting to see a more stormy pattern than we had in late Dec/early Jan. The midweek storm would figure to be a better event QPF wise than this one and potentially a decent winter storm but the low has to pass underneath us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Itstrainingtime Posted February 2, 2018 Share Posted February 2, 2018 33 minutes ago, canderson said: Ha! I go crazy if I sit at home more than like 4 hours at a time - I have to be out and about doing something. Sunday is seeing Mousetrap at the Fulton! We still have that Presidents' Day snowstorm I'm banking on ... Good for you! Wife and I always have a great time at the Fulton. Welcome to Lancaster. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WEATHERBUFF Posted February 2, 2018 Share Posted February 2, 2018 48 minutes ago, pasnownut said: In fairness, I busted on the Euro because of its traditional "king" status, as the Euro has struggled more than "normal"...whatever that is anymore. With exception of the GFS, they all have. That downsloping IMO is because the northern stream LP is staying dominant, so its qpf distribution follow something similar to a standard clipper where i get scraps at best. I've been hoping the NS low woould poop out and the southern stream would ramp up, but 18Z NAM's showing nothing of the sort. Do you agree, and how bad do you think this can get w/ antecedent airmass having little staying power? nam has not been good, besides it's out of it's range. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
canderson Posted February 2, 2018 Share Posted February 2, 2018 11 minutes ago, maytownpawx said: Good for you! Wife and I always have a great time at the Fulton. Welcome to Lancaster. We're there often, many friends there. The Fulton always does a good job, trying brunch at Aussie and the Fox (been for dinner, always good, but first time for brunch). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pasnownut Posted February 2, 2018 Share Posted February 2, 2018 14 minutes ago, WEATHERBUFF said: nam has not been good, besides it's out of it's range. Regarding qpf I agree but I look at the 12k for thermal profiles. I guess I’m just running outta ways to find snow. Lol Joking aside I didn’t dream up what I thought was a lock for the nw 3/4 of the state and can’t figure what has changed in the last 18 hrs to see such notable changes. This one seemed locked in for 3 straight days on most models and starting last night I could see it slipping away (thermally). There wasn’t a good high in place for days but it seemed stable in the models. Now... It’s just killin me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pasnownut Posted February 2, 2018 Share Posted February 2, 2018 46 minutes ago, Atomixwx said: You are fake news. Weather maps are fake news!! and the 18z gfs says hope is still alive. I’m just laughing out loud. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sauss06 Posted February 3, 2018 Share Posted February 3, 2018 3 hours ago, pasnownut said: Weather maps are fake news!! and the 18z gfs says hope is still alive. I’m just laughing out loud. I think I have 1 spot in my yard with a lil snow, you want me to text you a picture of that ? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pasnownut Posted February 3, 2018 Share Posted February 3, 2018 48 minutes ago, sauss06 said: I think I have 1 spot in my yard with a lil snow, you want me to text you a picture of that ? Lol. I sure hope u don’t have too. My wife pointed out a big grey snow pile at Park city and I asked her how silly it would be to bring my snowmobiles down to play in it. Hehe....sorta Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pawatch Posted February 3, 2018 Share Posted February 3, 2018 It looks like the main low heads up west of Buffalo. Is it even going to come close to the secondary? I thought it look like the storm could be a straight shot from NY to Maine. Also doesn't look like much precipitation, and the icing line appears to keep moving west. Now that we have sampling will the models start having a better picture and adjust good/bad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
canderson Posted February 3, 2018 Share Posted February 3, 2018 My point and click says rain after 1 pm. Go figure. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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