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Central PA - Jan/Feb 2018


MAG5035

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15 minutes ago, sauss06 said:

 

Its like a heat wave. 24 degrees.  i think i'm gonna set my saw horses up in the driveway and do some woodworking instead of the shop,  maybe enjoy a couple frosty adult beverages. 

anyone think we hit zero on Saturday early morning? 

I'd say we have a decent shot at zero on Saturday and even better on Sunday as things stand now. If, if we have fresh snow cover and light winds i could see many rural areas in the -10 range Sunday morning. 

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3 minutes ago, maytownpawx said:

I'd say we have a decent shot at zero on Saturday and even better on Sunday as things stand now. If, if we have fresh snow cover and light winds i could see many rural areas in the -10 range Sunday morning. 

That's what i was thinking too. 

 I just told my co-worker i wouldn't be surprised if we don't see a coating here. I like Horsts call for your area. 

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32 minutes ago, sauss06 said:

 

Its like a heat wave. 24 degrees.  i think i'm gonna set my saw horses up in the driveway and do some woodworking instead of the shop,  maybe enjoy a couple frosty adult beverages. 

anyone think we hit zero on Saturday early morning? 

I'm very bullish on the cold Saturday. I am thinking MDT has a shot to get to -5 overnight.

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36 minutes ago, sauss06 said:

 

Its like a heat wave. 24 degrees.  i think i'm gonna set my saw horses up in the driveway and do some woodworking instead of the shop,  maybe enjoy a couple frosty adult beverages. 

anyone think we hit zero on Saturday early morning? 

Certainly a shot at it that morning and also Sunday morning as well. I think the only way H-burg doesn't get under zero for a low is the gusty winds keeping the b-layer mixed but it's gonna be around zero either way, the airmass is just that cold. I actually think some point Sat night has a better chance with calmer surface winds before flow aloft veers southwesterly and we begin to moderate out of the deep freeze Sunday. 

Also noticed the 12z Euro suddenly doesn't get 850 above zero over most of the state with the next system passage early next week, can't say I'm surprised. Cold and progressive has been the name of the game. Despite this impending coastal looking to be a complete monster in terms of strength and moving near or over the benchmark, it's moving rapidly.. and thus the primary target area of the worst of this storm (New England as always) is looking at "only" a 10-14" type snowstorm with probably some localized higher amounts in the best banding but probably under 20". It's going to be a heck of a hard hitter though. Speaking of the coastal, I see CTP has their easternmost counties up for a 1-3" advisory. 

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37 minutes ago, maytownpawx said:

MAG, any updated thoughts after seeing today's guidance/obs/images? 

It seemed like guidance solidified today with the western edge of precip getting into places like York and Lancaster and points northeast but not much further west than that.  Harrisburg is probably going to be right on the edge of the steadier light snowfall.

For watching satellite imagery of this particular storm developing plus just in general I highly reccomend the College of Dupage GOES 16 site . GOES 16 just recently became officially operational and a lot of it's data and views are available on this site. The website is also much more friendly to navigate now. 

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1 minute ago, MAG5035 said:

It seemed like guidance solidified today with the western edge of precip getting into places like York and Lancaster and points northeast but not much further west than that.  Harrisburg is probably going to be right on the edge of the steadier light snowfall.

For watching satellite imagery of this particular storm developing plus just in general I highly reccomend the College of Dupage GOES 16 site . GOES 16 just recently became officially operational and a lot of it's data and views are available on this site. The website is also much more friendly to navigate now. 

Thank you so much, very appreciative! 

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15 minutes ago, canderson said:

MAG hinted at this I believe the other day but Monday is looking more and more like an potential ice event for SC PA.

depends on what model your huggin.  18z GFS went poof w/ Monday but is loaded with chances, and in my weenie eyes, was one of the more exciting (moisture induced) runs I've seen in quite a while. 

I'd lock that puppy in and roll em....  Looked very exciting.  

I'm also not thinking beyond next week, as I know some are already talking bout the warm up/winters over stuff.  We have a lot to get through till mid month, and plenty will change (for better/worse) in that time.  

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59 minutes ago, pasnownut said:

depends on what model your huggin.  18z GFS went poof w/ Monday but is loaded with chances, and in my weenie eyes, was one of the more exciting (moisture induced) runs I've seen in quite a while. 

I'd lock that puppy in and roll em....  Looked very exciting.  

I'm also not thinking beyond next week, as I know some are already talking bout the warm up/winters over stuff.  We have a lot to get through till mid month, and plenty will change (for better/worse) in that time.  

I’m happy that we are in the game tomorrow. A few days ago, it looked like would be shut out this time. I’ll be good with possibly getting a few inches of snow tomorrow. The radar looks fantastic down in VA & the Carolinas. This storm could still deliver a few surprises if it does not jump east once it gets to the VA Capes.

With the storm getting down to the extreme low pressure forecast, it should throw good precip back to the Susquehanna Valley. We have seen lows in the 980’s throw good snows back to CTP in the past, so this storm should at least deliver something decent to us, even if we are on the western edge this time.

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1 hour ago, Voyager said:

0z NAM went "uh uh, no way, zip, nada", for Schuylkill County. It doesn't get anything but flurries west of I-81. In fact, Allentown, Lancaster, and Reading get hardly anything on this run. Virtually all of PA gets shafted, save for Philly and far SEPA.

And the 02HRRR just showed a nice uptick after a couple steps back. Extrapolated I’d be happy to see it in a couple hours. But I will be in bed. 

Pick whatever model you like to believe and hug it for all it’s worth. I think it’s time to watch radar and enjoy.... or for some...wish it away. 

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3 minutes ago, Anduril said:

Be nice if we got something from this storm but really...were any of is expecting it after the way models had trended?

I always thought we might back into being close...and here we are. No, I never saw anything several days ago, but just went with patience and needed to see how the 500/700’s evolved. In truth for me it’s already a win and if I can get the 2-3” to verify I will be happy. I never Expected to be in the jackpot. 

Gnight all. Gonna be up early to watch it snow...I think..lol

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7 minutes ago, Anduril said:

Be nice if we got something from this storm but really...were any of is expecting it after the way models had trended?

The NAM 12k and 3k sucked me in this afternoon. Up until then, I was a skeptic. Now, of course, with the much drier NAM's and HRRR, I'm back to being skeptical. Watching the western edge of the precip shield down in NC and VA slowly getting eroded even as heavy echos are racing in off the Atlantic isn't helping. I'm kind of thinking that if the I-81 corridor sees anything, it will be a BRIEF period of light snow or flurries giving perhaps a dusting to a half inch at best.

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1 minute ago, pasnownut said:

Oh...and the stingy GFS shows a better westward tick to qpf field. What that means....well...well see in the morning.

Im good no matter. It’s a big @ss storm and I’ve enjoyed tracking it. 

The RGEM also delivers 1 to 3 inches of snow to all of the Susquehanna Valley. It brings the 1 inch line all the way back west to Juniata & Franklin county.

The radar has Virga over the LSV currently. There is precip streaming in off of the Atlantic. The western extent of the precip in Virginia is back to Charlottesville. 

I think from Harrisburg on east will get at least a couple of inches out of this storm.

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54 minutes ago, MAG5035 said:

The Euro at 0z caved & now brings 2–4 inches of snow to the Harrisburg, York & Lancaster area.

The radar continues to look great & is pushing good snow bands well into the Susquehanna Valley.

Light snow is underway in Marysville, with a light coating already on the car tops. MDT also is reporting light snow at the 3 am hourly report.

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5 hours ago, Voyager said:

The NAM 12k and 3k sucked me in this afternoon. Up until then, I was a skeptic. Now, of course, with the much drier NAM's and HRRR, I'm back to being skeptical. Watching the western edge of the precip shield down in NC and VA slowly getting eroded even as heavy echos are racing in off the Atlantic isn't helping. I'm kind of thinking that if the I-81 corridor sees anything, it will be a BRIEF period of light snow or flurries giving perhaps a dusting to a half inch at best.

I 81 never was supposed to be in. I am in the fringe/screw zone but this storm was for the fishies a few days ago. Now blizzard warnings have popped for eastern locals. Good for them. We’ll get ours. 

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25 minutes ago, pasnownut said:

Hope you “ cash in”. ;)

 

Not expecting much.  Good luck to our eastern posters.  This event truly could have been special even with a 3-6” snow and then the winds and blowing snow for 2 days after.   Combined with the brutal temps and possible ice storm next week to track, that’s winter.   I might be able to get my 2” snowpack to blow around from last storm instead.    

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