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Jan 3-4th Coastal Crusher OBS


buckeyefan1

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Setting here in Wilm.. Nothing to report just yet..

I'm assuming there is a YUGE amount(s) of Dry air @ the Surface to overcome.. As the "WALL" of dry air is just over the SC Border.. looking across the River into Brunswick county I can see the virga falling, then "poof"... 

Current Obs..

Temp is at 36

Heavy overcast, (Low cloud deck)..

Dew point of 2 F

Humidity of 56%

Winds NNE at 15 mph +/-

Here is the KILM AFD from 10:30am

Near term /through tonight/...
as of 1030 am Wednesday...the 12z Charleston SC sounding revealed there has been a lot of warm advection aloft overnight, Raging Warm nose? enough to push temperatures at 850 mb and 900 mb all the way up
to +2 degrees c. Compared with the 06z runs of the GFS and NAM, this is 1-2 degrees c warmer than either model predicted and poses an interesting challenge for precipitation type today. The latest runs of the rap seem to have a better handle on the observed thermal evolution, and is the basis for our forecast update this morning. We have expanded the area of sleet and freezing rain predicted this afternoon across areas 20-50 miles inland from the South Carolina coast, essentially trading off some of the quantitative precipitation forecast that was snow into sleet. This necessitates minor downward revisions in snowfall forecasts for Georgetown, Myrtle Beach, and coastal Brunswick County, NC, but also implies conditions will actually be more treacherous with a greater proportion of ice occurring in this event.

Radar observes the back edge of the precipitation across Georgia lines up from Statesboro to just west of Valdosta. This is very close to virtually all model guidance, and suggests that despite a poor thermal depiction the models do know where lift and moisture are present.

Very dry low level conditions and the imminent onset of precipitation across eastern South Carolina suggests temperatures aren't going to budge much today. I've bumped high temperatures down for most areas with the exception of around Wilmington, Burgaw, Whiteville and Lumberton where a later onset of precipitation should allow temperatures to rise several degrees above freezing, at least until the precip gets cranking during the late afternoon.

Concerns developing this evening as the warm nose retreats include moderate to potentially heavy snow developing across
southeastern NC and potentially as far south as Conway and Myrtle Beach. This is as the mid-level vortex passes overhead and strong dynamic lift occurs up within a very cold portion of the atmosphere. Snow ratios could actually increase beyond the typical 10:1 given the unusually cold snow generation zone aloft, and I have some concerns that our 2-3 inch snowfall forecasts could be low in spots.

No changes are planned to the previously issued Winter Storm
Warning or Winter Weather Advisory.
 

 

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 

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4 minutes ago, SENC said:

Setting here in Wilm.. Nothing to report just yet..

I'm assuming there is a YUGE amount(s) of Dry air @ the Surface to overcome.. As the "WALL" of dry air is just over the SC Border.. looking across the River into Brunswick county I can see the virga falling, then "poof"... 

Current Obs..

Temp is at 36

Heavy overcast, (Low cloud deck)..

Dew point of 2 F

Humidity of 56%

Winds NNE at 15 mph +/-

Here is the KILM AFD from 10:30am

Near term /through tonight/...
as of 1030 am Wednesday...the 12z Charleston SC sounding revealed there has been a lot of warm advection aloft overnight, Raging Warm nose? enough to push temperatures at 850 mb and 900 mb all the way up
to +2 degrees c. Compared with the 06z runs of the GFS and NAM, this is 1-2 degrees c warmer than either model predicted and poses an interesting challenge for precipitation type today. The latest runs of the rap seem to have a better handle on the observed thermal evolution, and is the basis for our forecast update this morning. We have expanded the area of sleet and freezing rain predicted this afternoon across areas 20-50 miles inland from the South Carolina coast, essentially trading off some of the quantitative precipitation forecast that was snow into sleet. This necessitates minor downward revisions in snowfall forecasts for Georgetown, Myrtle Beach, and coastal Brunswick County, NC, but also implies conditions will actually be more treacherous with a greater proportion of ice occurring in this event.

Radar observes the back edge of the precipitation across Georgia lines up from Statesboro to just west of Valdosta. This is very close to virtually all model guidance, and suggests that despite a poor thermal depiction the models do know where lift and moisture are present.

Very dry low level conditions and the imminent onset of precipitation across eastern South Carolina suggests temperatures aren't going to budge much today. I've bumped high temperatures down for most areas with the exception of around Wilmington, Burgaw, Whiteville and Lumberton where a later onset of precipitation should allow temperatures to rise several degrees above freezing, at least until the precip gets cranking during the late afternoon.

Concerns developing this evening as the warm nose retreats include moderate to potentially heavy snow developing across
southeastern NC and potentially as far south as Conway and Myrtle Beach. This is as the mid-level vortex passes overhead and strong dynamic lift occurs up within a very cold portion of the atmosphere. Snow ratios could actually increase beyond the typical 10:1 given the unusually cold snow generation zone aloft, and I have some concerns that our 2-3 inch snowfall forecasts could be low in spots.

No changes are planned to the previously issued Winter Storm
Warning or Winter Weather Advisory.
 

 

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 

Capture.PNG

Ice storm incoming. I told you buddy. We had this chat. It happens here all the time.

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