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Rjay

Jan 4th 2018 Fish Bomb

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Another positive trend. That gets Most of LI over a foot, puts NYC in the 6-12" range and puts most of the interior in the at least 3" range.

5a4d377c643e5.png

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NJwx85 doesn't really know how to read a model, so take what he posts with a grain of salt.

 

What is happening is that the new NAM has the best lift just kissing NYC, though it hits a wall there as the storm heads off to the east.  Whoever gets under that band will have a warning-level snowfall, whoever doesn't, wont.   Depending on what model you're looking at and/or the cut of your boxers, you can argue for that last band setting up anywhere from NYC to the twin forks, and that's why we're all here gnashing our teeth.  Every model, mas o menos, is within that range. 

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Less of a kick east by the Nam so that it eventually ends up west of the previous run despite the intial Eastward trajectory. 

If that earlier east movement doesn't occur, then we'd all be getting smoked. A lot of that will come down to nowcasting, we've already seen the HRRR making westward adjustments, that could continue.

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3 minutes ago, Snow88 said:

Precip is slightly more west on this run compared to 12z.

Analysis in here by some are horrible

THe QPF is slightly lower, but LP track is basically the same. Really will come down to banding which is impossible to forecast.

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yes, these predictive play by plays are pointless and do not further the education of readers here. stop predicting what the model will do and either post images or quantitative analysis.

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Just now, SnoSki14 said:

Less of a kick east by the Nam so that it eventually ends up west of the previous run despite the intial Eastward trajectory. 

If that earlier east movement doesn't occur, then we'd all be getting smoked. A lot of that will come down to nowcasting, we've already seen the HRRR making westward adjustments, that could continue.

Yeah, no jog and it's back to 6z. What a nightmare to forecast.

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Just now, SnoSki14 said:

Less of a kick east by the Nam so that it eventually ends up west of the previous run despite the intial Eastward trajectory. 

If that earlier east movement doesn't occur, then we'd all be getting smoked. A lot of that will come down to nowcasting, we've already seen the HRRR making westward adjustments, that could continue.

The trend is our friend, let’s see what the 3k does

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Something odd that I've noticed is that the 3KM NAM is firing off tons of organized supercells in the warm sector of the storm, while the HRR has some convection but generally more stratiform type precipitation.  It's been consistent over multiple runs, and I wonder if it relates to the different physics of the models, since both allow convection and (IIRC) incorporate SSTs.  To my eye the 3KM NAM seems overdone, and if not Reed Timmer needs to rent a boat.

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Impressive looking water vapor loop, strong negative tilt to the Jetstream. It would not surprise me if the storm ended up a bit west of all the models once this is set and done.

It reminds me of Jan 25, 2000 a bit.

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NAM hasn't moved much, and is actually a bit deeper, but that 6z run just had crazy dynamics, which actually would seem to match the storm's position and strength. But it's now dropped the intensity of the precip more in line with other guidance.

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Winter Storm Warning just hoisted here for 5"-7" of snow. A Winter Weather Advisory was issued earlier for 2"-4" of snow so amounts have certainly increased.

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1 minute ago, Ericjcrash said:

I likey. Smoked by bands keeps coming N.

nam3km_mslp_pcpn_frzn_neus_22.png

Nice to look at but likely overdone based on other modeling. Not one other major model takes it over or within the benchmark, and it’s hard for me to see how it’s more than a 4-6” storm in NYC with an east of benchmark low. 

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The stronger, more consolidated 250mb jet streak allows for more explosive development off of OBX. This leads to 500mb closing off sooner and precipitation to expand NW later on in the run despite a slightly farther E track. The upper levels continue to trend more favorably as we approach the event. Another west trend at 00z would not surprise me at all.

895CC2E6-CB59-456A-9BB5-AD017BDE7954.thumb.gif.2f31addf84bc904729f32f47ad9986d0.gif

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1 minute ago, UlsterCountySnowZ said:

Nam still cut totals down pretty big 

It’s moving towards other models. I was intrigued somewhat by that 6z run, but it was clear soon after it was a weenie NAM’d run. 

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2 minutes ago, UlsterCountySnowZ said:

Nam still cut totals down pretty big 

Looks to only cut the precip by around .1 in the NYC and LI areas from 12Z

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Winter Storm Warning

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service New York NY
320 PM EST Wed Jan 3 2018

CTZ009-NYZ071>075-176>179-040430-
/O.UPG.KOKX.WS.A.0002.180104T0600Z-180105T0500Z/
/O.EXB.KOKX.WS.W.0001.180104T0600Z-180105T0600Z/
Southern Fairfield-Southern Westchester-New York (Manhattan)-
Bronx-Richmond (Staten Island)-Kings (Brooklyn)-Northern Queens-
Northern Nassau-Southern Queens-Southern Nassau-
320 PM EST Wed Jan 3 2018

...WINTER STORM WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 1 AM THURSDAY TO 1 AM EST
FRIDAY...

* WHAT...Heavy snow and blowing snow expected. Plan on difficult
  travel conditions, including during the morning and evening
  commutes on Thursday. Tree branches could fall as well. Total
  snow accumulations of 5 to 8 inches, with localized amounts up
  to 10 inches especially across Queens and Nassau Counties, are
  expected.

* WHERE...Portions of southern Connecticut and southeast New York
  including the 5 Boroughs of New York City.

* WHEN...From 1 AM Thursday to 1 AM EST Friday.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Winds gusting as high as 50 mph will
  cause areas of blowing and drifting snow.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Winter Storm Warning for snow and blowing snow means severe
winter weather conditions are expected. If you must travel, keep
an extra flashlight, food and water in your vehicle in case of an
emergency. The latest road conditions for the state you are
calling from can be obtained by calling 5 1 1.

$$

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