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Jan 4th 2018 Fish Bomb


Rjay

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I think this is a positive GFS run.  If you look closely - and it's faint, because the GFS doesn't really have the resolution to resolve this - you see the same convergence over NYC at 700mb as you have in the NAM.  That's what we want to see b/c its our snowgrowth zone. 

The odds of getting a hit b/c the placement of the surface low is off by 200 miles or something seems pretty low.  The odds of the models underestimating the westward extent of the deformation zone - a known bias in strong EC storms! - is much higher...

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Recon flight headed in this evening.

A USAF RECONNAISSANCE PLANE IS SCHEDULED TO SAMPLE THE LOW OFF THE SOUTHEAST ATLANTIC COAST THIS EVENING AS THE LOW IS LIKELY TO BE RAPIDLY DEEPENING. THESE ADDITIONAL OBSERVATIONS MAY HELP NARROW THE MODEL SPREAD A LITTLE FURTHER...PARTICULARLY AS ENSEMBLE SENSITIVITY ANALYSIS SHOWS THE ULTIMATE LOW TRACK AND TIMING IS SENSITIVE TO CONDITIONS OFF THE COASTAL CAROLINAS THIS EVENING.

 

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1 minute ago, UlsterCountySnowZ said:

THhis is about as annoying as this storm gets... huge jump north and it “lessens” precip field lol... I hate this storm 

455427E8-5A89-4F51-9FE1-7D7265C0C1E1.gif

It wasn't really a huge jump north-notice the baggy isobars in both frames. The main low is just under a different piece of convection. There was a westward evolution to everything though, so that's good. The GFS verbatim would probably be widespread 10-12" from my area eastward. Where these bands set up tomorrow morning will really be interesting. The really good stuff looks to be between 6am and 12pm or so.

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1 minute ago, NJwx85 said:

Even the 700mb low, shown here, nearly passes over the benchmark. 

sketched_5a4d52fc0d848.png

Oddly, the models are pretty consistently showing a more westerly track for the 700mb low today, and that seems to be why more QPF is getting pushed back into the NY bight, because it's enhancing lift in the saturated snow-growth zone.

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Something occurs between 15z and 18z that causes this to kick ENE at the last second. It's beyond my knowledge as to why this happens.
sketched_5a4d53c894bb3.png&key=cbfe3ed09aa47e8e0b4a33c24e4bbeb66edbefe379dd513c99c6f6bb3adc23a9
sketched_5a4d53da3baa6.png&key=6528a28d32f34a7b1f5cadff92b299ce697220332d5d738fc787e63f660d2889
I'm nowhere near even the level of novice (well below THAT) but doesn't the system at the west coast look a bit stronger in the second image than the first?

Sent from my SM-G930V using Tapatalk

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18 minutes ago, NJwx85 said:

Even the 700mb low, shown here, nearly passes over the benchmark. 

sketched_5a4d52fc0d848.png

I think you want the center of that h7 low closer to you. The best VV's/lift will be  just north and west of that center....someone with RED TAG please correct me if I'm wrong.

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6 minutes ago, weatherlogix said:

You know what's missing - quick quips by Forky. He has been quiet; that lends pause....

the board has been slow for me. i think mid levels look really good for nyc. possibly double digits for the metro

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