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Jan 4th 2018 Fish Bomb


Rjay

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Nice to see the mid level frontogenesis developing nicely in SC - and slightly west of where modeled - as the flow stretches parallel to the temp gradient.  That's what we need for snows in NYC. 

Also clear CSI signal down there with the multibands starting to show up to the SE of the main frontogenesis band.    Going to be a good storm for the coastal mid atlantic, that's for sure.

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4 minutes ago, Ericjcrash said:

You want to see convection as far NW as possible. Gives credence to NAM, it' even more pronounced than the NAM had.

This is wrong.  The key for us isn't the convection, it's the location of frontogenesis in the comma head.

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8 minutes ago, Stormlover74 said:

 

 

Very complex.  Yesterday, it didn't appear that the trough would dig as rapidly as it did in such a short time.  Now, the water vapor loop is showing the trough tilting negatively, with momentum carrying it to at least southern Virginia.  You would need the momentum to continue to bring significant snow westward.  The latest Euro was showing that.  Whether or not that happens I could not say.  At least the NWS is actually forecasting possible amounts at this time.

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1 minute ago, North and West said:

Do we know where that is?

 

Yes.  Look at where the most inland (and most intense) snowband is forming down in SC.  You'll notice it's oriented NE/SW, parallel to the temp gradient.  That's your frontogenic forcing causing lift and precipitation.  You want that as far west as possible, and to have as little eastward translation over time as possible.

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