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Jan 4th 2018 Fish Bomb


Rjay

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2 minutes ago, nick5892 said:

Moved to denville nj this year. I think we can do a bit better than that. We shall see 

Based off 12Z model consensus so far this morning (EURO not yet arrived) I'd forecast 2-3" southeast Morris tapering to 1-2" NW on the Sussex border where I am.

Only NAM suggests you go above those numbers for Morris County.   I'll give the NAM its due in that it nailed the Jan 2016 event ahead of other guidance but even a blind squirrel can find a nut once and a while.

Ratios 10-1 on average.  Winds will assure most of that.  Temp profile marginal for 12-1.

Storm is also moving quickly along and banding likely won't save the day this far west.

 

 

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2 minutes ago, Ericjcrash said:

Pretty obvious WSW needs to be hoisted for NYC. 

...I wonder if the NWS will hoist blizzard warning for suffolk county?..if they do it

might be east of the william floyd..still have winter storm warning..no change yet..their

discussion is from this morning.

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Based off 12Z model consensus so far this morning (EURO not yet arrived) I'd forecast 2-3" southeast Morris tapering to 1-2" NW on the Sussex border where I am.
Only NAM suggests you go above those numbers for Morris County.   I'll give the NAM its due in that it nailed the Jan 2016 event ahead of other guidance but even a blind squirrel can find a nut once and a while.
Ratios 10-1 on average.  Winds will assure most of that.  Temp profile marginal for 12-1.
Storm is also moving quickly along and banding likely won't save the day this far west.
 
 

My kids will happily shovel that if it pans out.


.
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3 minutes ago, MANDA said:

Based off 12Z model consensus so far this morning (EURO not yet arrived) I'd forecast 2-3" southeast Morris tapering to 1-2" NW on the Sussex border where I am.

Only NAM suggests you go above those numbers for Morris County.   I'll give the NAM its due in that it nailed the Jan 2016 event ahead of other guidance but even a blind squirrel can find a nut once and a while.

Ratios 10-1 on average.  Winds will assure most of that.  Temp profile marginal for 12-1.

Storm is also moving quickly along and banding likely won't save the day this far west.

 

 

They should be higher than that even with some wind. NWS Albany is expecting 15-20:1 by me in Poughkeepsie area. 

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3 minutes ago, tim said:

...I wonder if the NWS will hoist blizzard warning for suffolk county?..if they do it

might be east of the william floyd..still have winter storm warning..no change yet..their

discussion is from this morning.

They won't hoist it until it is actually happening, as per new guidelines they put out this year.

 

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3 minutes ago, tim said:

...I wonder if the NWS will hoist blizzard warning for suffolk county?..if they do it

might be east of the william floyd..still have winter storm warning..no change yet..their

discussion is from this morning.

Based on the new boundary’s expect a blizzard warning for SE Suffolk and NE Suffolk 

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Just now, Sn0waddict said:

Posistion and strength are identical to the 12z yesterday run.

Yes, but more importantly heights are more backed north of the system. This would, at least in theory, aim its trajectory less eastward and more NNE'ward...

will have to see how it plays out

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