UlsterCountySnowZ Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 Hi res rgem snack I95, sharp cutoff Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Drz1111 Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 9 minutes ago, purduewx80 said: no it does not. vorticity is not a measure for location of vertical motion. it can be inferred but it’s misleading to say the bright red is where the band ends up. I was going to say the same thing. That was a misleading post. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zelocita Weather Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 3 minutes ago, UlsterCountySnowZ said: Hi res rgem snack I95, sharp cutoff snack I-95? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherfreeeeak Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 4 minutes ago, UlsterCountySnowZ said: Hi res rgem snack I95, sharp cutoff Do you mean the HRDPS? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JetsPens87 Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 4 minutes ago, LovintheWhiteFluff said: Essentially a negative tilted trough will allow it to stay closer to the coast. A progressive or positive tilted trough will allow it to be further off the coast. Yes to an extent, and in a normal situation definitely. This however is far from a normal situation and there is so much energy kicking in on the backside of the trough that really doesn’t phase very well that it still winds up pushing it east even though it’s negatively tilted. A better process would be to watch surface reflections of the processes occurring in my opinion. I just don’t want people under the impression that a bit more negatively tilted would mean a drastically different solution (not implying that is what you’re conveying). We saw last night how even an improved shortwave strength and orientation can still be pushed east very quickly on the model guidance. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 1 minute ago, weatherfreeeeak said: Do you mean the HRDPS? That is the hi res RGEM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hudsonvalley21 Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 6 minutes ago, LovintheWhiteFluff said: Here is an article on negative tilted troughs. http://www.theweatherprediction.com/habyhints/127/ And some reading on 500mb wind direction. http://www.atmo.arizona.edu/students/courselinks/fall12/atmo336/lectures/sec1/info500mbII_2ndpass.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mikem81 Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 UKIE looks better Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mikem81 Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
F5TornadoF5 Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 Ukmet looks better imo Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zelocita Weather Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 Finally forming almost unanimous consensus of a 3-6" for most of the region, with more from around the city and east... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NYCGreg Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 No one should be speaking in absolutes as it relates to banding. It is impossible to predict for any model or person. You hope that when the event gets going you are under the bands that form. Sure, certain areas have a better shot at getting banding, but we have seen time and again these models struggle mightily with dynamic events. I'm not sure why we are surprised now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Monmouth_County_Jacpot Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 Anyone know when flight recon data will be added to models?? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 3 minutes ago, F5TornadoF5 said: Ukmet looks better imo It's not bad for Long Island. I don't know why I'm surprised that the same areas are once again going to get the shaft. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mikem81 Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 3 minutes ago, NJwx85 said: See the track difference between 0Z and 12Z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hudsonvalley21 Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ericjcrash Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 2 minutes ago, hudsonvalley21 said: Weenie angle so it appears way negative lol, but thats beautiful. Look at how she' digging. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastonSN+ Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 Deep thunder on Mike V. Twitter shows central CT jackpot of 23 inches. Shows 7.9 for Manhattan. The trend is in line with the other models it seems with a track a bit further east, and the precip expanding further west. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hudsonvalley21 Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 1 minute ago, EastonSN+ said: Deep thunder on Mike V. Twitter shows central CT jackpot of 23 inches. Shows 7.9 for Manhattan. The trend is in line with the other models it seems with a track a bit further east, and the precip expanding further west. Thanks for posting. I was wondering what that model was showing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
F5TornadoF5 Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 Ukmet precip totals higher quite a bit West compared to 00z which was bad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mikem81 Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 2 minutes ago, F5TornadoF5 said: Ukmet precip totals higher quite a bit West compared to 00z which was bad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
F5TornadoF5 Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 1 minute ago, mikem81 said: That was yesterday's run Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mikem81 Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 2 minutes ago, mikem81 said: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mikem81 Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 Just now, mikem81 said: Its not pasting correctly, but shows around 15-20 MM in 5 boroughs; 20-25 on LI Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 Ukmet s about 5-8” maybe more NYC, sharp cut off Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sn0waddict Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 Btw the gefs track stayed identical,was 3mb stronger and bumped up precip a bit. .5 contour now goes to nyc and Danbury. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Drz1111 Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 why are people posting yesterday's UKMET over and over. If you don't know how to embed, don't. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 Current UKMET run: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wetbulbs88 Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 1 minute ago, UlsterCountySnowZ said: Ukmet s about 5-8” maybe more NYC, sharp cut off It's an important run. Ukie was an eastern outlier. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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