jm1220 Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 That really is a nice look aloft but looks like a real struggle to place the low due to convection obviously. The convection firing east will want to take the low along it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 Looks better at 500 to me, I haven’t even looked at surface Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherlogix Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 The end result isn't going to be anywhere near 6Z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
larrye Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 37 minutes ago, Snow88 said: The Euro has blew chunks this winter Everyone discounted the Nam before and got burned in 2016. SREF shifted west Yes, but wasn't that more or less a one-time occurrence? More often than not ... much more often than not ... the NAM is usually overdone on QPF, no? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
F5TornadoF5 Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherlogix Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 4 minutes ago, UlsterCountySnowZ said: Looks better at 500 to me, I haven’t even looked at surface huh? How does the 12Z look better than the 6Z? The contours shifted 50+ miles east. Seems like the the northern stream is forcing it east Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 3 minutes ago, UlsterCountySnowZ said: Heavier convection is still West, not concerned with slp placement Not nearly as intense as 6z for the western flank. Crazy amounts should come way down Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 1 minute ago, UlsterCountySnowZ said: Looks better at 500 to me, I haven’t even looked at surface The setup looks a little east to me vs 6z. It might still be nice but likely not a nuke this far west anymore. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherlogix Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 The NAM is literally the worst model ever. Even more useless than a broken clock Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 1 minute ago, F5TornadoF5 said: Still looks nice here but back more to reality along with other models. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
F5TornadoF5 Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 1 minute ago, F5TornadoF5 said: Wow, that might still get the death band back this far west. Crazy dynamics popping off with that closed 500 low. Still intrigued to see the rest of 12z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherlogix Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 still spits out quite a snow event Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 Nam is still a nice snow event. Actually a tad stronger, it just focused its slp placement a tad east this run Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 Nam is still very nice for the coast Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 Just now, qg_omega said: NAM is such a horrible model, its cut back by 1+ inches over the NYC area in 6 hours. It should NOT be used in ANY forecast. That's going to happen with that kind of a tight gradient. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 Models are going to struggle with all the convection firing up over the ocean and dynamics that come into play, that’s obvious now. But if there’s going to be a real stronger trend here for us, it’s about now or never time. I’d expect other 12z models to jump on board, or else I’d call the NAM still overdone. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 Hi res had no issue with slipping the slp from convection Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 6-10 inches on the Nam with ratios for NYC Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
F5TornadoF5 Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 3k Edit: out of order a bit Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
qg_omega Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 Just now, Snow88 said: 6-10 inches on the Nam with ratios for NYC down from 24 inches on the 6z NAM, why does anyone even look at this model? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 3 minutes ago, Snow88 said: 6-10 inches on the Nam with ratios for NYC 1 minute ago, qg_omega said: down from 24 inches on the 6z NAM, why does anyone even look at this model? Stop looking at qpf, and u won’t get burned Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherlogix Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 6 minutes ago, Snow88 said: 6-10 inches on the Nam with ratios for NYC why are you assuming high ratios? The 6Z nam had temps between H650 and H8 at like -7C or so, need it to be colder than that (-11 to -15) for optimal snow growth and higher ratios Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 Just now, weatherlogix said: why are you assuming high ratios? The 6Z nam had temps between H650 and H8 at like -7C or so, need it to be colder than that (-11 to -15) for optimal snow growth and higher ratios 850s support high ratio Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 Nam hi res has over a foot for the NYC area. Wow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 1 minute ago, weatherlogix said: why are you assuming high ratios? The 6Z nam had temps between H650 and H8 at like -7C or so, need it to be colder than that (-11 to -15) for optimal snow growth and higher ratios The NAM was the only model that warm in that layer. Most were -10C or so at 10,000 feet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherlogix Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 LOL... 12Z vs. 6Z, same timeframe Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherlogix Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 8 minutes ago, Snow88 said: 850s support high ratio Snow isnt typically made at h85 and it's only -8. So no Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RDRY Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 1 minute ago, weatherlogix said: LOL... 12Z vs. 6Z, same timeframe With a storm of this intensity, it's like trying to forecast thunderstorms for a higher res model. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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