Ericjcrash Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 Just now, Brasiluvsnow said: Euro ? Just started. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 1 minute ago, Drz1111 said: But Baton Rouge, Natchez, etc are not. There’s very little precip right now, as was modeled. Radar is quiet unless you use the fake WSI conposite weenie-dar. I always found NWS mosaic to be accurate, usually only green echo is what’s making it to surface Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ericjcrash Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 Just now, UlsterCountySnowZ said: I always found NWS mosaic to be accurate, usually only green echo is what’s making it to surface Too delayed for my liking. Radarscope ftw Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 Yikes... Just looked at weather.com and saw they were calling this storm Grayson. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 Tick better for euro Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brasiluvsnow Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 Just now, UlsterCountySnowZ said: Tick better for euro I was just waiting to see if anyone had input on the run,,,I'm shot gotta sleep thanks Billy ( again ) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HeadInTheClouds Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 2 minutes ago, UlsterCountySnowZ said: Tick better for euro What does QPF look like? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 Can't see maps yet but seeing a crazy hit for eastern New England (going by comments on the NE forum) may not be great for NYC area. Although the kicker not being so much an influence and not the crazy bomb/stacking east of Wilmington, NC like the NAM might not be so bad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 Just now, HeadInTheClouds said: What does QPF look like? 1-2 outside city, 2-5 roughly around, more towards Long Island Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ericjcrash Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 2 minutes ago, UlsterCountySnowZ said: 1-2 outside city, 2-5 roughly around, more towards Long Island Ouch. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rtd208 Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 More interested in trends on the Euro then snowfall amounts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DiehardFF Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 A few shifts west and we are in good shape. Looks like all models but maybe the CMC/UKIE went east with precip. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 2 minutes ago, UlsterCountySnowZ said: 1-2 outside city, 2-5 roughly around, more towards Long Island So pretty much the 0z model consensus then. Maybe (hopefully) some room for further improvements at 12z but things are trending to a 3-6" type storm in NYC, less west and possibly a foot well east in Suffolk. Decent but the main story on this for most of us will be the cold behind it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Enigma Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 This is and always has been a New England storm. From NYC west, we should be grateful for any scraps we get. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rtd208 Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 If I had to make a call for snowfall amounts for NYC and NE NJ (Not LI or further north and west) I would go with 3"-5" and make any adjustments after the 12z runs tomorrow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HeadInTheClouds Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 4 minutes ago, DiehardFF said: A few shifts west and we are in good shape. Looks like all models but maybe the CMC/UKIE went east with precip. We don't have much time left. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ericjcrash Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 2 minutes ago, HeadInTheClouds said: We don't have much time left. If you wanted to weenie out and ride the 3k NAM you don't need any time. Either way getting a cyclone this strong will be epic. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted January 3, 2018 Author Share Posted January 3, 2018 13 minutes ago, jm1220 said: Can't see maps yet but seeing a crazy hit for eastern New England (going by comments on the NE forum) may not be great for NYC area. Although the kicker not being so much an influence and not the crazy bomb/stacking east of Wilmington, NC like the NAM might not be so bad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HeadInTheClouds Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 1 minute ago, Ericjcrash said: If you wanted to weenie out and ride the 3k NAM you don't need any time. Either way getting a cyclone this strong will be epic. I would love for the 3K to verify but sadlly it won't. This will be epic in eastern sections only and I understand the dynamics involved but I want snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Drz1111 Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 UA pattern on Euro more favorable. QPF meh. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 i love to track, I’ll be more than happy to follow and get 1-2’’ or nothing , or 6".... idk why people so greedy it’s Jan 3 lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NYCGreg Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 The models generally had a westward trend tonight. And we've had surprises with snow amounts in systems far less dynamic than this. Who's to say we don't have something like that in store for this either? It's not as if we need drastic swings to make significant changes to accumulations here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rtd208 Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 Like I said in a previous post, more concerned about improvements aloft versus QPF amounts. Curious to see what the EPS/ensembles show. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 GEPS look somewhat like gefs.... .5 into nyc, and .2-.4 a decent ways inland Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NYCGreg Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 Just now, Rtd208 said: Like I said in a previous post, more concerned about improvements aloft versus QPF amounts. Curious to see what the EPS/ensembles show. Completely agree. Many pro mets have expressed the same sentiments on Twitter. No one knows the end result, and the upper air patterns may never translate to the surface, but one small step at a time is all we need, even if we are 30 hours or so from start time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 3 minutes ago, NYCGreg said: The models generally had a westward trend tonight. And we've had surprises with snow amounts in systems far less dynamic than this. Who's to say we don't have something like that in store for this either? It's not as if we need drastic swings to make significant changes to accumulations here. Xmas day...that band set up 150 miles west of modeled...not impossible to get a surprise here Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted January 3, 2018 Author Share Posted January 3, 2018 4 minutes ago, Rtd208 said: Like I said in a previous post, more concerned about improvements aloft versus QPF amounts. Curious to see what the EPS/ensembles show. There were small improvements Have at it Old run Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted January 3, 2018 Author Share Posted January 3, 2018 New run Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted January 3, 2018 Author Share Posted January 3, 2018 Old vs new Strong jet streak to our north Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 1 minute ago, Rjay said: Old vs new Strong jet streak to our north Everything I see points to a better precip shield, with better back flow...idk why models are so stingy on western side Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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