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Jan 4th 2018 Fish Bomb


Rjay

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Jeff Beradelli, a meteorologist who used to post on these forums used to say, "The devil is in the details".  With that being said, it seems the general consensus is that the longer range models were not picking this system up well.  Perhaps we would need to throw that information out and only go with the present vorticity maps and perhaps 12-24 hours forecasat and extrapolate the rest?  Take a look at the present water vapor loops.  Right now, the flow has all the southern moisture being sucked out to sea.  Obviously the trough will bend within the next 12-48 hours, but how much?  The water vapor shows the incoming energy quite well, but several phases need to take place, pretty quickly.  The high pressure is south and west of our area, which is not typical of an east coast snow storm.  At this point, I would forecast a near miss, despite the model trends (I've been wrong too often).  I'm sure we will all learn something from this storm.

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1 minute ago, Dark Star said:

Jeff Beradelli, a meteorologist who used to post on these forums used to say, "The devil is in the details".  With that being said, it seems the general consensus is that the longer range models were not picking this system up well.  Perhaps we would need to throw that information out and only go with the present vorticity maps and perhaps 12-24 hours forecasat and extrapolate the rest?  Take a look at the present water vapor loops.  Right now, the flow has all the southern moisture being sucked out to sea.  Obviously the trough will bend within the next 12-48 hours, but how much?  The water vapor shows the incoming energy quite well, but several phases need to take place, pretty quickly.  The high pressure is south and west of our area, which is not typical of an east coast snow storm.  At this point, I would forecast a near miss, despite the model trends (I've been wrong too often).  I'm sure we will all learn something from this storm.

Thanks for weighing in. I will temper expectations, there is too much uncertainty but when someone with training looks at things and makes an observation, I tend to take that seriously.

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Thanks for weighing in. I will temper expectations, there is too much uncertainty but when someone with training looks at things and makes an observation, I tend to take that seriously.
This is, and has been from day one, all about the Vorts and how they will phase. This is why the models have been bouncing around. All of our players are on the field and have been sampled at this point. Not foolproof, but a good idea.
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The really big problem we have to contend with is the way the low gets to where it gets... if this were a typical Miller-A that kind of end-location would be golden for everyone here. since it's coming from the Bahamas, however, we need it to take more of a north track then a NE track.

 

Not out of the realm of possibility that this isn't done trending, however. If we can keep getting a sharper trough moving forward that will greatly help with trying to cut the corner.

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Improved alot at h5
Surface doesn't match up
This model use to be good. It's going to take until tomorrow for this model to catch on
Not a miss. What you are seeing is the third piece of energy acting as a kicker and therfore it shunts the storm east in a quick manner. In reality, the question becomes where the crucial third piece of energy comes into play. If it phases with it around the mid Atlantic, then you have an unprecedented storm. If it acts more as a kicker, you have a significant storm for the area with fierce winds at the coast, but she's in and out. The 12km Nam was a perfect phase for all three which allows it to slow down coming up the coast and absolutely explode. Again, as has been the case this whole saga, it all comes down to kick or phase.
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Essentially, the 12z ECMWF cut QPF from a line running from Islip to New Haven and westward. It increased QPF in such cities as Boston (0.43" to 0.71"), Groton (0.28" to 0.45"), Providence (0.37" to 0.55") and Westhampton (0.36" to 0.40") from its 0z run.

However, one should keep in mind that QPF output from this far out are subject to a lot of uncertainty. The improved dynamics could suggest a larger precipitation field to the west. So one should take the QPF reductions with a large dose of caution, especially as the mesoscale models and UKMET offered a different solution.

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Just now, NJwx85 said:

Basically the further East circle is where the Euro closes off the 500mb low. We need it instead to be located within further West circle.

sketched_5a4bcbcca9843.png

Exactly.

Its not impossible it happens either, if it's sharper and is able to turn that corner. This is painstakingly close to a massive storm for coastal areas, QPF be damned

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1 minute ago, allgame830 said:

Yea sooo many people are to into the surface depiction.... h5 was much improved that has to transfer down the surface as we move forward.  we still have time its only Tuesday 12z!

H5 is still not good, this shows the disconnect.

sketched_5a4bcc3f10cb1.png

Basically that mega solution tucked into the coast that the Euro had a few days looked more like the image below, with the big closed low cut off over the deep South.

sketched_5a4bccbfc1795.png

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Euro is about 20 mbs stronger and notably further NW from yesterday's run.

That's a big adjustment given how close we are to the storm. If the storm ends up as strong as the Euro shows then I think it'll end up on the BM. 

The bigger question is how dynamic and expansive will the precip shield be, you would think that a bombing system relatively close to the BM would produce a stronger, more expansive precip shield. 

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