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Jan 4th 2018 Fish Bomb


Rjay

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1 minute ago, purduewx80 said:

Seeing some consistency from the experimental Deep Thunder (an IBM/NCAR model that will replace the RPM down the road).  NYC sort of on the gradient...the 12Z run spits out 8.9" at NYC but much of Queens and Brooklyn are 12+. 

Lock it up. Any idea when it will be implemented? And images please 

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4 minutes ago, purduewx80 said:

Seeing some consistency from the experimental Deep Thunder (an IBM/NCAR model that will replace the RPM down the road).  NYC sort of on the gradient...the 12Z run spits out 8.9" at NYC but much of Queens and Brooklyn are 12+. 

It will be interesting too see how it performs with this event.

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3 minutes ago, HeadInTheClouds said:

I wish people would stop posting things like "ukie looks east" or "ukie looks west" without giving more details as to how much east or west. Is it 10 miles or 100 miles? BTW Ukie does not look any further east than last run from what was posted. 

The surface low is a good 75-100 miles WSW of where it was 24 hours ago for the 7 am Thursday timepoint.

output_oipLkL.gif

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1 minute ago, RU848789 said:

The surface low is a good 75-100 miles WSW of where it was 24 hours ago for the 7 am Thursday timepoint.

output_oipLkL.gif

Yeah it didn’t move the precip field a whole lot though outside of SNE.  The real oddball change was the screw job that occurred vs the prior run QPF wise from ACY down into the Delmarva 

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3 minutes ago, SnoSki14 said:

Model consensus still suggests a near miss overall with the main impacts out on E. LI and New England. 

However we'll probably see constant adjustments from now until when the storm gets going. 

Plenty of nowcasting likely too with short term models trends as the storm is ongoing. 

yes, the main impacts will likely be eastern long Island and New England but what do you consider a near miss. Is 3-6 a near miss in your eyes because thats very possible for NYC?

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7 minutes ago, SnoSki14 said:

Model consensus still suggests a near miss overall with the main impacts out on E. LI and New England. 

However we'll probably see constant adjustments from now until when the storm gets going. 

Plenty of nowcasting likely too with short term models trends as the storm is ongoing. 

And BTW there is still no model consensus. 

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14 minutes ago, Ericjcrash said:

Lock it up. Any idea when it will be implemented? And images please 

unsure. it’s still experimental. i was not impressed during hurricane season and this is our first winter with access, so it remains to be seen how well it will perform.  its consistency stands out for the time being. don’t think i’m allowed to post but will try to find out. 

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4 minutes ago, SnowGoose69 said:

5 or more years ago we could toss that because the UKMET was always too far to the east on coastals but it doesn’t generally have that issue anymore

Seems like it can also be too far east with big amped up systems like we are seeing now. But for some reason it can lead with weaker systems like Feb 16 and back in December.

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