F5TornadoF5 Posted January 2, 2018 Share Posted January 2, 2018 FWIW, JMA a bit wetter to the west than last 12z run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted January 2, 2018 Share Posted January 2, 2018 Gfs doesn't give anyone more than 4" outside of eastern Mass Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mike1984 Posted January 2, 2018 Share Posted January 2, 2018 Wouldn’t be concerned about precip amounts right now. Just track of low, which is improving Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 2, 2018 Share Posted January 2, 2018 3 minutes ago, Stormlover74 said: Gfs doesn't give anyone more than 4" outside of eastern Mass It came west That's all that matters Globals will most likely trend towards the mesos Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ericjcrash Posted January 2, 2018 Share Posted January 2, 2018 4 minutes ago, Snow88 said: It came west That's all that matters Globals will most likely trend towards the mesos Aloft it (should've) ame west. SLP is clearly east at our lat Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted January 2, 2018 Share Posted January 2, 2018 Mesos may have a better handle on this storm given how complex the phasing mechanisms are. Also the more powerful the storm ends up, the further west it'll be. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted January 2, 2018 Share Posted January 2, 2018 RGEM: 6z vs. 12z: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
White Gorilla Posted January 2, 2018 Share Posted January 2, 2018 Trends definitely our friends today. Go West Young Low! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
David-LI Posted January 2, 2018 Share Posted January 2, 2018 I remember the last few winters the GFS catching up to the NAM last minute. I wouldn't worry about it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted January 2, 2018 Share Posted January 2, 2018 The UKMET is west again Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 2, 2018 Share Posted January 2, 2018 I just saw the cmc Not bad at all Alot of snow for CNJ and SNJ. Few inches here for the coast Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted January 2, 2018 Share Posted January 2, 2018 23 minutes ago, Stormlover74 said: Rgem through 7am. Hopefully that heavier stuff comes right up the coast Based on the GGEM it probably doesn’t. We see the same thing where ACY and places like SBY see more as that back edge “dies” but it’s probably still a 5-8 inch snow near nyc with 14-16:1 ratios Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted January 2, 2018 Share Posted January 2, 2018 4 minutes ago, SnowGoose69 said: The UKMET is west again Can you post the french site link? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Nibor Posted January 2, 2018 Share Posted January 2, 2018 Ggem continues to show an expansive precip shield. The SLP is east of the benchmark but precip makes it back to central PA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted January 2, 2018 Share Posted January 2, 2018 18 minutes ago, mike1984 said: Wouldn’t be concerned about precip amounts right now. Just track of low, which is improving Yeah but being west of the city I'm still concerned about the extent of the back edge of the heavier snows, even with a good track Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted January 2, 2018 Share Posted January 2, 2018 15 minutes ago, David-LI said: I remember the last few winters the GFS catching up to the NAM last minute. I wouldn't worry about it. Even the Euro had to catch up to the NAM for January 16. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
F5TornadoF5 Posted January 2, 2018 Share Posted January 2, 2018 Heavier Precip comes to a halt south of LI on CMC, interesting solution. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted January 2, 2018 Share Posted January 2, 2018 For the RPM fans. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted January 2, 2018 Share Posted January 2, 2018 3 minutes ago, bluewave said: For the RPM fans. way east of previous runs (which were probably too far west anyway) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mikem81 Posted January 2, 2018 Share Posted January 2, 2018 3 minutes ago, bluewave said: For the RPM fans. This forum would rather see the frame before..... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zelocita Weather Posted January 2, 2018 Share Posted January 2, 2018 RPM from frame before is a beast Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted January 2, 2018 Share Posted January 2, 2018 13 minutes ago, Nibor said: Ggem continues to show an expansive precip shield. The SLP is east of the benchmark but precip makes it back to central PA. It may have the best handle on the precip shield out of all the globals. That cutoff further north is due to the kick east that the models show, which is questionable right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted January 2, 2018 Share Posted January 2, 2018 4 minutes ago, mikem81 said: This forum would rather see the frame before..... That was a twitter feed freebie. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted January 2, 2018 Share Posted January 2, 2018 There is probably a sweet spot somewhere for the metro in this event where we are close enough for decent snow amounts but not close enough for the winds to destroy the ratios. Somewhere in between will get 15-20:1 ratios while east of there a bit may be 10-11:1 and still not in the very high QPF Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted January 2, 2018 Share Posted January 2, 2018 It may require additional time before the guidance moves into general agreement. The possible difficulties among the global models and big differences with the mesoscale models may well be the result of a complex phasing situation with which the guidance has noted difficulty in the medium range. From Kocin, Uccellini et al. on the December 2010 Boxing Day blizzard: The entire suite of European, Canadian and U.S. models didn’t converge on the correct forecast scenario until 36 to 48 hours prior to the onset of the heaviest snow, generally late on the 24th through early on the 25th. Furthermore, the significant model differences on 24 December 2010 contributed to forecaster uncertainty... It wasn’t until the 1200 UTC 25 December model cycles that all the models converged on a solution that put New York City squarely in the area of heavy snowfall and blizzard conditions on 26 December... ...we do note that this case was marked by the complex phasing of different short-wave upper-level troughs upstream of the cyclogenetic event. These phasing characteristics are a marker for La Nina patterns which existed for the Winter 2010/2011, which are known to be particularly difficult to forecast with certainty in the medium range. http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/winter_storm_summaries/event_reviews/2010/December25_27_2010_Blizzard.pdf Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
F5TornadoF5 Posted January 2, 2018 Share Posted January 2, 2018 ukmet Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted January 2, 2018 Share Posted January 2, 2018 12z UKMET is shift East of the 00z run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mikem81 Posted January 2, 2018 Share Posted January 2, 2018 1 minute ago, NJwx85 said: 12z UKMET, East of previous run Doesnt look east to me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
F5TornadoF5 Posted January 2, 2018 Share Posted January 2, 2018 2 minutes ago, NJwx85 said: 12z UKMET is shift East of the 00z run. I don't see it that way, but my eyes are tired haha Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
allgame830 Posted January 2, 2018 Share Posted January 2, 2018 Just now, mikem81 said: Doesnt look east to me. Yes correct and SnowGoose69 specified it was west again a little while ago..... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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