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JAN 4th Coastal

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I just looked at 3k for fun.  957 off OBX and the precip shield doesn't make it past 95.  It did shift west from 0z as others have noted.  the cutoff is so sharp you can drive from no snow to serious snow in like a 10 mile drive or less. 

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2 minutes ago, PennQuakerGirl said:

So the margin is pretty razor thin, huh? 

Short of seeing the models try to kick out a double barreled/elongated low again around OBX the precip will have a sharp cutoff. So it will be razor thin from the haves and have nots. So every little bit helps to adjust that track/precip westward. From what I have seen from the recent runs I actually somewhat expect that we will see another shift west on the 12Z runs. Now whether it is enough to get DC/Balt in play I guess we will see.

 

***(And actually the 06Z RGEM does have an elongated low and looks as if it may be considering trying to redevelop a secondary right off of OBX. Doesn't get it done here but that may be something to watch for in later runs as that would be a game changer)***

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11 minutes ago, losetoa6 said:

I personally am excited ...snow/ no snow to track this system the next couple days because simply put.. it's super rare to get a winter season  low of this  strength at our latitude ...sub 970 . 93' is the last I believe . 960 mb over Salisbury . Look out on the backside..winds and cold will be epic 

The infrared satellite pictures will probably be one for the text books. It’s a shame though that it won’t likely go down as the Cobalt 2018 storm locally. Maybe we still get scraped though.

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23 minutes ago, losetoa6 said:

I personally am excited ...snow/ no snow to track this system the next couple days because simply put.. it's super rare to get a winter season  low of this  strength at our latitude ...sub 970 . 93' is the last I believe . 960 mb over Salisbury . Look out on the backside..winds and cold will be epic 

I geezed last night and fell asleep at 9. Looks Like I picked the right night to do it. Lol

Anyway,  by way of comparison,  1/25/00 was a 980 off the NJ coast. It'll be a shame if we get a total whiff like the Gfs is still showing.  I think that the gfs is a better model than often given credit, so a total whiff remains on the table in my mind.

The low off Florida is just now getting going. See Unysis sutface maps. Tonight's 0z run will have everything the models need to know wrt Florida low and northern stream. So although 12z may see final directional moves (east or west), 0z will be the run to live or die by imho.

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You can see the players on the field on this water vapor loop: 1) Northern stream moving south out of Canada entering the Dakotas; 2) Southern stream around Kansas; 3) Clouds gathering over Florida with the surface low.

http://weather.unisys.com/satellite/sat_wv.php?inv=0&t=l3&region=us

Moisture convergence map proves models correct with progged storm development off SE coast of Florida. 

http://weather.unisys.com/surface/sfc_con.php?image=qc&inv=0&t=cur&expanddiv=hide_bar

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9 hours ago, losetoa6 said:

 This storm is very trackable still imo.

Yeah, might as well keep tracking as RGEM, and NAM to some degree, giving false hope. I'll watch a few more runs to see what happens. Knew when I woke up and saw only 54 posts since I went to bed that it probably wasn't good news.

 

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I know it’s been good for some here but RGEM has performed poorly this winter in MBY with regard to QPF. it’s been way too wet. I’m taking whatever totals it shows for me with a grain of salt. 

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It is interesting that the RGEM is getting precip back over our area. Evan as far as out here. It has performed very well so far this winter. But is still a little bit at range. It looks like it is getting precip into the area with some kind of inverted trough?

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11 minutes ago, nj2va said:

I know it’s been good for some here but RGEM has performed poorly this winter in MBY with regard to QPF. it’s been way too wet. I’m taking whatever totals it shows for me with a grain of salt. 

 

8 minutes ago, clskinsfan said:

It is interesting that the RGEM is getting precip back over our area. Evan as far as out here. It has performed very well so far this winter. But is still a little bit at range. It looks like it is getting precip into the area with some kind of inverted trough?

these two posts back to back are lol

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1 minute ago, mappy said:

 

these two posts back to back are lol

They do live in totally different areas I assume you know.

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21 minutes ago, clskinsfan said:

It is interesting that the RGEM is getting precip back over our area. Evan as far as out here. It has performed very well so far this winter. But is still a little bit at range. It looks like it is getting precip into the area with some kind of inverted trough?

It is extremely light NW of I-95 though, and it could just be virga out there. On the total precip map, the 0.1" line is SE of the cities at hr 48. Not much more over me, about .15" or so. Looks really nice down along the coast, with 0.5"+. Question is, where does it go beyond this point, and my guess is it is headed NE and out.

eta- There does appear to be an inverted trough, so I would say that is at least contributing to the depiction of more precip further inland.

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 I am hoping that the “day” models will bring hope. It makes everything better. Hope meaning comments like “tick West” and “deeper Low” and “hugging the coast”. Yes, me and everyone else. Oh, to see the GFS and King come into surprise agreement in a good way today. 

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RGEM was a false prophet with that southern slider last January.  It way overdid the precip on the NW extent, IIRC it had like 0.4-0.5 back through DC and we only ended up with like 0.1.  

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RGEM was a false prophet with that southern slider last January.  It way overdid the precip on the NW extent, IIRC it had like 0.4-0.5 back through DC and we only ended up with like 0.1.  

How did it do with the Dec 8-9 storm last month?


.

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5 minutes ago, nj2va said:

It predicted about double QPF what I actually got. I’ll see if I can find the runs leading up to it but I’m skeptical of RGEM QPF.  

The 18z run before the Dec 8/9 event had me at 0.4”+ with SE DC in 0.5”. I wound up with like 1.5” or so on much less QPF. I find that it’s been consistently too wet for my location so I’m treading lightly. 

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15 minutes ago, nj2va said:

The 18z run before the Dec 8/9 event had me at 0.4”+ with SE DC in 0.5”. I wound up with like 1.5” or so on much less QPF. I find that it’s been consistently too wet for my location so I’m treading lightly. 

Yeah me too.  When it's an outlier from the globals I don't weigh it heavily.  

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7 minutes ago, mitchnick said:

They're going with the Gfs it would seem.

In their AFD they mentioned going with consensus/blend, and re evaluate later this afternoon. 0z Euro backed off a bit too.

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14 minutes ago, DCTeacherman said:

Yeah me too.  When it's an outlier from the globals I don't weigh it heavily.  

Yeah, good advice.  I’m down for some mood flakes in DC.  The beach cameras at Ocean City, etc will be fun to watch on Thursday.  

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