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JAN 4th Coastal


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Just now, supernovasky said:

That's about how I've felt. I haven't payed much attention to this storm because it just doesn't seem like we'll get anything more than a fringing. I'd absolutely love to see that precip shield expand like, 10 miles west, then we may be in game.

The upside is enhanced lift in an outer band. I've seen it before (most commonly to my NW lol). This one is a little different. There could be an area of brief heavy snow somewhere along or west of 95. It's really hard to say until it's basically happening. 

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15 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

The thing that I like about the RGEM (and hate about the NAMs ) is wiggle room. Leesburg should be hugging the RGEM like dangling from a rope in the mouth of a volcano

My weenie handbook says we take the depiction of where the back edge sets up from the rgem and superimpose the banding from the 3k nam and boom... 4-8 for all.  

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1 minute ago, Cobalt said:

RGEM precip shield with 3k NAM snow gradient = win win 

Wonder what GFS will do, but I'll hug the RGEM for as long as I can until it caves. 

It was tongue and cheeck of course but every once in a generation we get everything to break our way that way. It's not out of the realm I suppose that the rgem correctly identifies the western extent of the storm but the nam is correct with the intense banding feature on the back edge. Very unlikely since the two factors relate to one another but not impossible. 

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Just now, Bob Chill said:

God that's brutal on the GFS. More precip west of the bay but a worse cutoff...ugh

It's like the precip hits a brick wall.. you can tell by 6z Thursday that precip is much farther West compared to last run, but it ends up in about the same spot. 

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Just now, Bob Chill said:

God that's brutal on the GFS. More precip west of the bay but a worse cutoff...ugh

I’m going to measure on the east side of my yard. 

Dare i say the gfs looks like the NAM in terms of precip? Obviously lighter, but same pattern of pushing that ENE elbow to our north. 

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1 minute ago, Bob Chill said:

God that's brutal on the GFS. More precip west of the bay but a worse cutoff...ugh

LOL that kind of cutoff is actually funny who knows where it sets up but I think it's pretty clear it will be nasty wherever it does. Crazy storm

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2 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

God that's brutal on the GFS. More precip west of the bay but a worse cutoff...ugh

That cutoff is gonna be real. We've seen it before. 1989 in NJ. Nothing to 10" over 15 miles in NJ was the ultimate example. But I'm ok with what the nam and gfs are doing. Are we really that pressed about getting 1"?  If so I apologize I'm not telling anyone what to be happy with. But if I can increase the chances of getting 3-5" at the cost of perhaps not getting 1" I'll take that. It will hurt for those that end up just west but we're increasing the chances some of us get a respectable snow here. 

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1 minute ago, psuhoffman said:

That cutoff is gonna be real. We've seen it before. 1989 in NJ. Nothing to 10" over 15 miles in NJ was the ultimate example. But I'm ok with what the nam and gfs are doing. Are we really that pressed about getting 1"?  If so I apologize I'm not telling anyone what to be happy with. But if I can increase the chances of getting 3-5" at the cost of perhaps not getting 1" I'll take that. It will hurt for those that end up just west but we're increasing the chances some of us get a respectable snow here. 

similar wrt snowfall amounts as temp problems are for us east of the piedmont

I can't remember all the times I got slush or nothing while 10 miles to my west/nw got 2-4"

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1 minute ago, DCTeacherman said:

GFS is 1-3 again for us, ratios perhaps permitting someone close in DC to get to 3.  This may end up surprising some people tomorrow morning. 

It would be ultimately weird (since my school is in DC), going from nothing to 2" within a 30 minute drive. Crazy stuff for sure. 

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7 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

If there was ever a time that I want the GFS's occasional bias of too dry NW to be true...this is the epitome...

i was thinking the opposite lol. Usually to my eyes, the GFS is more widespread with precip than the other models..

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