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JAN 4th Coastal

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Just now, Bob Chill said:

oooh, now we're talking. All 3 mesos jumped at the same time. RGEM has been too generous with QPF lately but with .4 we have some wiggle room. 

Can’t hate that.  Even with overdone RGEM QPF lately, cut it by a quarter and I’d still be happy.

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2 minutes ago, mitchnick said:

It's the answer to our prayers.  That's all you need to know. 

I just don't have the patience to look at those maps. Way too much scribble scrabble for me. That could make me go ADHD!! 

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1 minute ago, mitchnick said:

Lookingcat the 700mb rh map on the rgem, there's more after 36 hrs

Oh, that was only through 36 hours? Oh man we need high res maps now...

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1 minute ago, Amped said:

NAM 12km doesn't like NJ or Philly. Storm does an odd hook from NC to Cape Cod.

cMuXhAC.png

We moved past that.  The RGEM is the new face of weenie

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It's going to be a kicker. That's almost certain. We just need it to be lazy and slow about it. And hope the nam tracks are correct.
I always respect your knowledge and our discussions here but I respectfully disagree. This feature that a few are touting as a 'kicker' is amplifying or digging S or just East of South. At 33 hours is the critical frame on the nam. If we are looking at the same feature, that energy amplifying in the OV is damn close to pinching off. There is no mechanism forcing this East to kick. The only thing I see is convective flareup well east of lp popping up around the same time as this 'kick' east. If that feature continue to trend towards more amplification or even closing off the theory of this being a kicker is debunked as the flow will back and the system will stay tucked if not become fully captured. Im not saying this will happen just making my opinion on this 'kicker'. There are so many dynamics going on with this that we could be seeing a rare system where guidance still doesnt have a complete handle even while the storm is upon us. You may also be right and the ov energy moves E and bumps our storm well east but I find it hard to believe a 2ndary amplifying sw in the OV trof is going to jist nudge a sub 960 low off to the NE like that. Best convection should be farther W where strong fetch off warm gulf stream clashes with sjb freezing mid atl 2m temps and rock solid frozen ground. Huge thermal gradient along coast will have bigger influence on storm than many are giving credit.

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Just now, mitchnick said:

6"+ nased on what I've seen. 

Yoda, link to 48 hr black and white please! !!!

It's running on TT now but it will be a bit before the good panels are out. 

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3 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

RGEM looks like the biggest hit on the 12z euro ens with pushing precip all the way to HGR. heh.

Several hours of atleast light snow all the way back  to Hagerstown. Wow. Hopefully the globals continue the trends. Didn't the 0z models have recon data ingested?

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Just now, Rvarookie said:

I think 3-4” is safe call for RIC and DC. Pretty sure the GFS will get folks little excited later

We've still got 24 hours of guidance until we can make that answer. Could be a blip, but the trends are still very exciting, so I'm hopeful.

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Just now, mitchnick said:

Add another inch since that map stops at 36 hrs. Pleeez Lord!!!!!

i'll have pivotal ready in a few to share... both regular and kuchera

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Just now, mitchnick said:

Add another inch since that map stops at 36 hrs. Pleeez Lord!!!!!

Question, why does it show no snow in between Southern North Carolina and South Carolina? Just noise?

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8 minutes ago, BristowWx said:

We moved past that.  The RGEM is the new face of weenie

RGEM definitely tracks the low east of it's 12z run. Precip is west however.

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1 minute ago, Cobalt said:

Question, why does it show no snow in between Southern North Carolina and South Carolina? Just noise?

Because word got to the Rgem programmers JI would be vacationing at the NC/SC beaches this week. 

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3 minutes ago, Rvarookie said:

I think 3-4” is safe call for RIC and DC. Pretty sure the GFS will get folks little excited later

I would not make that call.  We’ve had the rug pulled out closer than this. GFS has a way of gut punching at the last minute.  Now if it holds well I will have to eat it.  Gladly of course.

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If you keep getting caught up in exactly where that SLP center is, you'll miss the important details. The important thing on those runs is that the upper levels are much better for snow on the west side of the circulation and that the low is initially anchored to the coastal front instead of further east, which helps put the better f-gen/deformation zones onshore instead of out over the Atlantic or just brushing the beaches.

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Just now, Scraff said:

Feel like we’re about to pull an Ovi in overtime!! We are sooooooo close...

It's more like that Seahawks vs Packers game where Matt Hasselback said "We want the ball and we're gonna score". We've just gotta avoid the pick 6 this time..

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5 minutes ago, Cobalt said:

We've still got 24 hours of guidance until we can make that answer. Could be a blip, but the trends are still very exciting, so I'm hopeful.

Meh...we don’t need guidance. Once that Jebman fella said he was getting that pain in his foot I knew the snow was a lock

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