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H2O

JAN 4th Coastal

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2 hours ago, batmanbrad said:

if the models keep improving like the GFS just did, PhineasC might change his mind and go for Delaware again?

Looks like a pretty good bet lower DE will see 5-6". His criteria to head there was a foot. So since that does not look likely, it is still Oakland.

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1 minute ago, Bob Chill said:

At least models account for it so the qpf output is an accurate depiction of what happens on the ground with each run. I've seen it work both ways but agree that it's more common to see less than more QPF at verification. One thing that could potentially bump things on the edge is banding. Outer bands can often outproduce model qpf output. This storm has the potential to throw back a decent band somewhere in MD. Could be one of the times where the outer band outproduces with an under performing zone in between. Something like i95 or ROCKVILLE for instance get's 2-3" while Mitch only gets 1". Yea, something like that.  

I was thinking that banding features could probably boom people somewhere in the Delmarva area depending on how far West the precip shield goes. Could happen like you described it.

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3 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

At least models account for it so the qpf output is an accurate depiction of what happens on the ground with each run. I've seen it work both ways but agree that it's more common to see less than more QPF at verification. One thing that could potentially bump things on the edge is banding. Outer bands can often outproduce model qpf output. This storm has the potential to throw back a decent band somewhere in MD. Could be one of the times where the outer band outproduces with an under performing zone in between. Something like i95 or ROCKVILLE for instance get's 2-3" while Mitch only gets 1". Yea, something like that.  

There you go HoCo and the Chill Deathband. 

These nearly always verify.

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52 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

There's actually more spread in the members than I thought. A few whiffs along the corridor but most push at least a trace in. Half get .1 to i95. A couple outliers push .3 to dca. One gets .1 all the way to HGR. Lower resolution and shorter leads don't give much weight to the members but the outliers are notable for the short lead time. 

I'm pulling for the .1 to HGR:rolleyes:

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4 minutes ago, Deck Pic said:

Nothing matters for another 6 hours. Enjoy your evenings. 

The thing that pisses me off about the euro is it walked away from a good event while the gfs is walking towards a good event. GFS never once teased us with a digital bomb and I'm thankful for it. Euro basically served up a steak and lobster and left us with a bowl of free peanuts. The gfs left us hungry the whole time and finally slid a bowl of mac and cheese down the bar. Hopefully @ 0z the gfs tosses in a can of PBR to wash it down. 

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8 minutes ago, Cobalt said:

I was thinking that banding features could probably boom people somewhere in the Delmarva area depending on how far West the precip shield goes. Could happen like you described it.

somewhere between salisbury and milford will pop with double digits no doubt, has been that way for just about every storm the past 2 years

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6 minutes ago, losetoa6 said:

I'm pulling for the .1 to HGR:rolleyes:

Me too, lol.  

It's early, but the 'easterners' have really taken a nice lead over the I-81 crew in snowfall so far.  I went back and compared MRB seasonal snowfall to BWI to see how common it is for the metro areas to exceed here for a season.  21 times in 92 years BWI has had more, so more common than I would have guessed.  Might be one of those years.

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Just now, Bob Chill said:

The thing that pisses me off about the euro is it walked away from a good event while the gfs is walking towards a good event. GFS never once teased us with a digital bomb and I'm thankful for it. Euro basically served up a steak and lobster and left us with a bowl of free peanuts. The gfs left us hungry the whole time and finally slid a bowl of mac and cheese down the bar. Hopefully @ 0z the gfs tosses in a can of PBR to wash is down. 

The Euro since it’s upgrade 2 times ago ( not the most recent one) has been prone beyond 96 hours to have bombs that end up not verifying.  Inside 72 it’s main problem is it’s a very slow adjuster.  It’s still usually the closest of any other global at 80-90 most of the time so it scores best but I find it’s sometimes catching up to the RGEM and NAM on QPF and other meso features inside 48 

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51 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

There's actually more spread in the members than I thought. A few whiffs along the corridor but most push at least a trace in. Half get .1 to i95. A couple outliers push .3 to dca. One gets .1 all the way to HGR. Lower resolution and shorter leads don't give much weight to the members but the outliers are notable for the short lead time. 

I mentioned this earlier with the EPS. The member spread, ranging from next to nothing to heavy snow, was notable even towards the coast, where the forecast (and highest probability) is for warning criteria snow. So, still some pretty high uncertainty, which one could interpret (spin) a few different ways- ranging from a decent potential for this to improve (more snow west side of the low), to a pretty high bust potential for the whole MA region, lol.

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1 minute ago, SnowGoose69 said:

The Euro since it’s upgrade 2 times ago ( not the most recent one) has been prone beyond 96 hours to have bombs that end up not verifying.  Inside 72 it’s main problem is it’s a very slow adjuster.  It’s still usually the closest of any other global at 80-90 most of the time so it scores best but I find it’s sometimes catching up to the RGEM and NAM on QPF and other meso features inside 48 

Agreed. No op is good with synoptic events beyond 96 hours and are very prone to large swings. Inside of 72 it's typically hard to beat the euro in general but I have seen exactly what you are talking about with slow adjustments. Personally, I think the GFS is much better than people give it credit for. It's a very good model. Prone to busts like any op but some people rag the hell out of it and all that tells me is their bias gets in the way of their ability to properly use the tools provided. We'll see how this storm goes down but it sure seems to me that the GFS has lead the way with consistency. It's been a rock in general while other globals have moved around quite a bit. 

What's up with the NAVGEM? Did they upgrade it or something? It's been a lot better this year than I remember in the past. Maybe it's because I haven't paid much attention but it's certainly not a joke model like it's made out to be. 

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1 minute ago, Bob Chill said:

The thing that pisses me off about the euro is it walked away from a good event while the gfs is walking towards a good event. GFS never once teased us with a digital bomb and I'm thankful for it. Euro basically served up a steak and lobster and left us with a bowl of free peanuts. The gfs left us hungry the whole time and finally slid a bowl of mac and cheese down the bar. Hopefully @ 0z the gfs tosses in a can of PBR to wash it down. 

Yeah, that kooky run or two of the Euro was interesting while it was there!  And it wasn't for this upcoming event, but the GFS did give us that ridiculous 36-hour (or whatever it was) non-stop snow event for the period right after Christmas in one run!  That's a filet mignon with lobster, with a caviar appetizer and whatever fancy French dessert afterward (plus some Veuve Cliquot champagne to top it off)!

So we're down to mac and cheese now, or perhaps stale bread crumbs!  I'll pass on the PBR, thank you!

Anyhow, on topic, it is true that the GFS never really was overly enthusiastic in this area for the Thursday event.  Maybe a run or two looked kind of good several days back, I can't recall.  But it's been adamant that it won't be much here.  That said, Thursday sure looks like it could be bitter with brisk winds and cold temperatures, regardless of anything else!  More chapped skin, I guess...humidifiers continue to work overtime.:lol:

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7 minutes ago, SnowGoose69 said:

The Euro since it’s upgrade 2 times ago ( not the most recent one) has been prone beyond 96 hours to have bombs that end up not verifying.  Inside 72 it’s main problem is it’s a very slow adjuster.  It’s still usually the closest of any other global at 80-90 most of the time so it scores best but I find it’s sometimes catching up to the RGEM and NAM on QPF and other meso features inside 48 

Not sure when the upgrades took place, but when the euro nailed Sandy from about a week out (eventually the Nam was the next to come around to the final euro solution), I thought I recalled everyone saying the euro was the best at handling these super low pressured storms off coming up the east coast.... has that since changed??

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2 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

Agreed. No op is good with synoptic events beyond 96 hours and are very prone to large swings. Inside of 72 it's typically hard to beat the euro in general but I have seen exactly what you are talking about with slow adjustments. Personally, I think the GFS is much better than people give it credit for. It's a very good model. Prone to busts like any op but some people rag the hell out of it and all that tells me is their bias gets in the way of their ability to properly use the tools provided. We'll see how this storm goes down but it sure seems to me that the GFS has lead the way with consistency. It's been a rock in general while other globals have moved around quite a bit. 

What's up with the NAVGEM? Did they upgrade it or something? It's been a lot better this year than I remember in the past. Maybe it's because I haven't paid much attention but it's certainly not a joke model like it's made out to be. 

It's not running right now for 18z for whatever reason, but I agree with you. It's been very consistent, and showed it by leading the way during the Dec 8-9 snow event. 

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11 minutes ago, THEREALTOR1 said:

Not sure when the upgrades took place, but when the euro nailed Sandy from about a week out (eventually the Nam was the next to come around to the final euro solution), I thought I recalled everyone saying the euro was the best at handling these super low pressured storms off coming up the east coast.... has that since changed??

The Euro was upgraded in 2012 I think and January 2016.  Prior to the 2012 upgrade I found it was much better in the 84-108 hour period.  Since that I don’t think it’s as good 

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8 minutes ago, SnowGoose69 said:

The Euro was upgraded in 2012 I think and January 2016.  Prior to the 2012 upgrade I found it was much better in the 84-108 hour period.  Since that I don’t think it’s as good 

Copy that.  I knew there was an upgrade, that wasn't very popular, and just couldn't remember when it took place

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44 minutes ago, SnowGoose69 said:

The Euro was upgraded in 2012 I think and January 2016.  Prior to the 2012 upgrade I found it was much better in the 84-108 hour period.  Since that I don’t think it’s as good 

The thing is, we compare the "old euro" with the new one versus the old gfs, and it was better. I just think the upgrades to the gfs make the euro far less impressive. Gfs is just not as prone to wacky high snow totals 3+ days out that the euro has been doing. 

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38 minutes ago, WVclimo said:

Me too, lol.  

It's early, but the 'easterners' have really taken a nice lead over the I-81 crew in snowfall so far.  I went back and compared MRB seasonal snowfall to BWI to see how common it is for the metro areas to exceed here for a season.  21 times in 92 years BWI has had more, so more common than I would have guessed.  Might be one of those years.

That is interesting. That number would probably be significantly lower at DCA considering they cant measure snow there and all.

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This is what I was talking about earlier from the BOS AFD:

Quote
Uncertainty....

As mentioned above this storm is still 2 days away and the
average model error at this time range is 50-75 miles. Thus
this applies to the axis of heaviest snow and the location of
the rain-snow line. Hence adjustments in later forecasts are
expected. Will models continue to trend westward in later runs?
Given the amplitude of the long wave pattern, system developing
over the Gulf Stream and convection possibly building the
downstream ridge more than models are simulating all suggest an
eastward trend is unlikely with some additional westward
adjustment possible. We`ve been told recon flights will collect
data shortly and this will likely help improve model
performance.

Will it matter for us?  Don't know, but this is still an intriguing tidbit to see

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it would be legendary if dc somehow gets 2-4" from this.  that would really create a lot of debate.  certainly doesn't look like it, though.  gotta trust the models, seasoned mets, and active hobbyists.

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56 minutes ago, C.A.P.E. said:

Looks like a pretty good bet lower DE will see 5-6". His criteria to head there was a foot. So since that does not look likely, it is still Oakland.

Yup, locked in to go to Oakland this time. Funny though over the last two winters now how I have had the opportunity to chase good snow in Millville, DE. They are on a run for that area.

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GFS did have a subtle but fundamental change @ 18z compared to all previous runs the last few days. This is the last 4 run trend gif. You can see what 18z did. It pulled the 540 contour under and also backed the 534 contour. That opened the door for the westward shift with the precip shield. The shield meets less resistance. It's not a door open but a door crack kind of thing and something I will definitely pay attention to @ 0z. Also, you can see the trough axis keeps incrementally bumping west as well. These tiny little changes could end up making a big difference in our yards. Any by big difference I mean snow instead of no snow. 

I jumped to quick to the conclusion earlier with the dominant surface low being the furthest west and how that could easily change in future runs. But in reality the upper levels made a nice jump in our favor for allowing the western precip to push further west. We can only hope this is a sign and not a blip. 

658EI08.gif 

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43 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

Agreed. No op is good with synoptic events beyond 96 hours and are very prone to large swings. Inside of 72 it's typically hard to beat the euro in general but I have seen exactly what you are talking about with slow adjustments. Personally, I think the GFS is much better than people give it credit for. It's a very good model. Prone to busts like any op but some people rag the hell out of it and all that tells me is their bias gets in the way of their ability to properly use the tools provided. We'll see how this storm goes down but it sure seems to me that the GFS has lead the way with consistency. It's been a rock in general while other globals have moved around quite a bit.

I would agree that GFS needs a bit more credit on any given day. That said, it was very poor at the surface compared to the Euro throughout December with the active pattern.

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4 minutes ago, 87storms said:

it would be legendary if dc somehow gets 2-4" from this.  that would really create a lot of debate.  certainly doesn't look like it, though.  gotta trust the models, seasoned mets, and active hobbyists.

Heh, my previous post shows how we can get there. Just need 2 more incremental bumps and it could happen. Storm will be booking so getting something like 4" or .4 qpf is going to be tough but I have to admit I think I see how it could happen for us if EVERYTHING breaks right. 

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3 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

Heh, my previous post shows how we can get there. Just need 2 more incremental bumps and it could happen. Storm will be booking so getting something like 4" or .4 qpf is going to be tough but I have to admit I think I see how it could happen for us if EVERYTHING breaks right. 

yea was just looking at the post.  this storm almost seems like a quasi jan 25/boxing day mix.  i guess the question at this point is how much of that will be jan 25 versus a whiff.  they do carry similar vibes...to me at least.

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Anyone check out https://twitter.com/crankywxguy last few tweets? His maps showing the various moving pieces of the puzzle seem to indicate a more western track is indeed possible. Def interesting to look at what is actually happening in the atmosphere currently as opposed to all the hand wringing over the wobbles occurring during every model run (not criticizing, I do it too haha...). Thoughts on his ideas? 

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