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JAN 4th Coastal

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7 minutes ago, osfan24 said:

Yeah I just saw Boston does get crushed at the end of the run. Ugh.

Not surprised about the NAM though, not that it's terrible, but when I saw the SREF's cut back drastically, I had a feeling the NAM would take a step back as well.

Not really worth mentioning but the SREF's didn't really cut back that drastically. .5 contour still goes through the cities. Probably lost some of the 20" and 30" runs this go around. 

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looking at the nam, i don't know that too many conclusions can be drawn. only concern is we're getting closer, not farther, from the event. onto the gfs and euro.

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8 minutes ago, losetoa6 said:

3knam at 500 looks like an overall better trough alignment to me . Lakes low is slightly further west this run allowing hieght rises to the east ne.

Both nams shifted the polar low in Quebec west. WIll parobably only be a factor for New England.

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7 minutes ago, losetoa6 said:

This storm is very trackable still imo.

I don't think this story is finished yet.  This storm is like an nuclear explosion on the 3k...those are hard to predict until they happen

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4 minutes ago, Amped said:

Both nams shifted the polar low in Quebec west. WIll parobably only be a factor for New England.

I think it leaves room to come more north towards our latitude  before it turns the jets on ne...assuming phasing between the first 2 vorts is similar to the 18z nam...but in 6 hours it will change LOL 

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22 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

Nams remind me of the euro with the shield to the west of the low. Not identical of course but they both have the same bulge to the west. 

It's doing the same thing, messy reorganization of the precip as the northern stream system temporarily interferes and kicks it east. Only it's doing it right at our latitude screwing our eastern zones instead of NYC to Boston. 

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2 minutes ago, wkd said:

Bottom of the trough at 42 on the 0z 3km nam looks horrible compared to the same time on the 18z.

I actually thought the 18z 3k was slightly worse then 12z. 12z just didn't go out far enough but it might have nukes us had it. It's been a slight degradation both runs since. At 60 12z was slightly better then 54 on 18z. But I didn't want to ruin the party saying that. 

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This will Be an interesting 48 hours of weather to track regardless of what happens in your back yard.   It’s currently snowing in cocoa beach Florida

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Rgem would get precip to dc. How much us debatable but it certainly looks on its way to pushing that western bulge west of the bay. Delmarva would do well

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5 minutes ago, ryanconway63 said:

This will Be an interesting 48 hours of weather to track regardless of what happens in your back yard.   It’s currently snowing in cocoa beach Florida

How did you hear this. Weather Bug shows 55 deg there

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8 minutes ago, ryanconway63 said:

This will Be an interesting 48 hours of weather to track regardless of what happens in your back yard.   It’s currently snowing in cocoa beach Florida

Not according to the National Weather Service 55 and rain.

http://forecast.weather.gov/MapClick.php?CityName=Cocoa+Beach&state=FL&site=MLB&textField1=28.3355&textField2=-80.6269&e=0#.Wkr92DdryUk

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6 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

Rgem would get precip to dc. How much us debatable but it certainly looks on its way to pushing that western bulge west of the bay. Delmarva would do well

Looks like 10 mm through DC

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GFS hanging back the southern shortwave more.  Typical GFS. Seeing as it's 66hrs out, I'm going to say it's still not hanging it back  enough.

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8 minutes ago, Amped said:

GFS hanging back the southern shortwave more.  Typical GFS. Seeing as it's 66hrs out, I'm going to say it's still not hanging it back  enough.

Gets zero precip into VA excluding far southeastern VA and flurries for the Delmarva 

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16 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

Rgem would get precip to dc. How much us debatable but it certainly looks on its way to pushing that western bulge west of the bay. Delmarva would do well

Looks like 12mm

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2 minutes ago, HighStakes said:

If this thing is coming west the GFS isn't going to catch on until 18z or 0z tomorrow. It shouldn't be a surprise to anyone whod been through this drill.

I just compared the gfs at 60 to the euro at 72. Low strength and placement is very similar. Gfs is only a little east with low. I think the only thing the gfs is missing is the western bulge. Something going on there across guidance with the gfs being odd man out on that. 

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