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JAN 4th Coastal

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6 minutes ago, pasnownut said:

if you are referencing the eastern folk....I'm happy for them.  Ever storm is not for everyone...we all know that.  its been fun to watch all the same and in truth is still further west than i think many would have thought 2 days ago.  Me included.

Nut

This storm is absolutely critical though. We only get the kind of Arctic air mass that's following it maybe once in 4-5 years. -25C 850's are special, I'm not gonna say I wouldn't be upset if we wasted all that upper level cold on worthless bare ground instead of maxxing it out with at least an inch of snowcover. I want -2F not 8F Saturday night, there's an entire world of difference. 

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7 minutes ago, pasnownut said:

if you are referencing the eastern folk....I'm happy for them.  Ever storm is not for everyone...we all know that.  its been fun to watch all the same and in truth is still further west than i think many would have thought 2 days ago.  Me included.

Nut

I am too, i hope they get about 2 feet lol. Would be nice if Wes got crushed by about 14 inches of snow.

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1 minute ago, pasnownut said:

I'd just be thinking about how you like em served IF you need to eat em. Hasnt happened yet, but in truth, yeah it has surprised as to how far west it has come.  I didnt think it would go this far as well when looking at trough, 500's etc.  No matter, this IS why we do what we do here.  All good no matter the result.

 

Gfs re-invited the double barrel tucked idea back on the table. My guess is it went a little nuts with convection but those were some tasty words that should keep me satisfied for another 6 hours.

Digital commas are as pretty as digital snow.

gfs_ir_us_8.png

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The I-95 corridor is not where the most drastic change happened in one single run. It’s the eastern NC up through the Delmarva beaches area— the GFS *finally* looks like the other models that have been consistently showing a major snowstorm for those areas. We know the 12Z Euro went dry there too, but that could reverse in the subsequent runs back to what it was showing yesterday.

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4 minutes ago, pasnownut said:

tell that to the folks 25 miles to the west of said cutoff. lol

been there....did that far too many times.

 

but....but......didn't Mr Chill and others declare a couple days back that this would be all-or-nothing affair? Fringe was not an option! So if it's not going to be nothing, then we have to get hammered.

And yeah, the latest RGEM and GFS are really gonna STING if verified, we on the western side have been getting the short end of the stick on every event so far this season.

 

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4 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

Gfs re-invited the double barrel tucked idea back on the table. My guess is it went a little nuts with convection but those were some tasty words that should keep me satisfied for another 6 hours.

Digital commas are as pretty as digital snow.

 

GFS says the western edge convection goes wild and puts the low there.  NAM says the eastern edge convection is where it's at.  

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2 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

You can see what the gfs is doing. Hard time resolving convection. 3 low centers and it chose the weenie one to be primary. 

gfs_mslp_pcpn_eus_6.png

But it's similar to a lot of different runs. Are you gonna come up with something other than the basic opinion "weenies"?

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I have a feeling this thing is going to keep ticking West until I-95 gets dumped on and our friends to the East worry about mixing.  Of course, I have 0 met knowledge and I'm only whishcasting, but I see this type of thing happen often.

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My takeaway from this whole deal is that just like we see nice storms go POOF in seemingly the nicest of setups, they also can trend back from less than ideal setups into something.  It really is the fascination I think many of us have with Meteorology, and the challenges associated (of course IMBY snow totals trump everything). 

I think it safe to say that so far the 2017-18 shows us all to well to not discount the unexpected.  Not good for the hairline I know.

 

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1 minute ago, WeathermanB said:

But it's similar to a lot of different runs. Are you gonna come up with something other than the basic opinion "weenies"?

I'm working on my fingerpaint snow map now. I'll post it later. 

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2 minutes ago, WeathermanB said:

But it's similar to a lot of different runs. Are you gonna come up with something other than the basic opinion "weenies"?

lol

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It's mostly noise, though the NS s/w is a little further west/slower on this run. Diabatic PV production from all of that convection is continuing to cause havoc. This just isn't going to be modeled as well as we'd all like because of it.

Better to take a blend and hedge slightly NW towards the coastal front for now. I still think that's going to be an important player.

That nasty advected dry boundary layer wedge on the NW side is going to be a player as well. Could be a brutal cutoff on the west side of wherever that band decides to set up.

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1 minute ago, pasnownut said:

My takeaway from this whole deal is that just like we see nice storms go POOF in seemingly the nicest of setups, they also can trend back from less than ideal setups into something.  It really is the fascination I think many of us have with Meteorology, and the challenges associated (of course IMBY snow totals trump everything). 

I think it safe to say that so far the 2017-18 shows us all to well to not discount the unexpected.  Not good for the hairline I know.

 

never ever never give up on a storm when its along the southeast coast.

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2 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

I'm working on my fingerpaint snow map now. I'll post it later. 

If you can make it as confusing as one of DT's maps I can t wait to see it.  Make sure it is labeled "first call"

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12 minutes ago, MountainGeek said:

 

but....but......didn't Mr Chill and others declare a couple days back that this would be all-or-nothing affair? Fringe was not an option! So if it's not going to be nothing, then we have to get hammered.

And yeah, the latest RGEM and GFS are really gonna STING if verified, we on the western side have been getting the short end of the stick on every event so far this season.

 

with respect to the many talents that are on here, there was enough writing on the wall to see why it was written off by some A Teamers.  While I'm not at that level, I've always rooted for the underdog, and have seen "surprises" enough to know that while odds are sometimes slim, sometimes they are able to be overcome, like we see with this storm.  Trough axis/500's and pattern recognition largely argued against what is happening.  No matter the result, that is/was undeniable, and my weenie eyes saw what they did, but knew that at 4-5 days out, time was on our side.

carry on...

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The 30 36 and 42 hour marks on the 18Z run seem to indicate an issue with where the Low will really be. Seems like an interesting model variance. The next run may cause a further issue.

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1 minute ago, ryanconway63 said:

I thought DT said this storm couldnt happen.....

It hasn’t happened yet.  There’s enough uncertainty with the western edge of precip that its anyone’s guess right now whether places like DC and Baltimore see nothing, flurries, or the elusive 1”.  Certainly makes this storm fun to track.

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2 minutes ago, yoda said:

Should we care about the ensembles on the 18z GFS, or is it too close in?

ops and mezzos starting tonight should start to carry the weight

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11 minutes ago, WeathermanB said:

But it's similar to a lot of different runs. Are you gonna come up with something other than the basic opinion "weenies"?

Offense, but you’re terrible.

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7 minutes ago, csnavywx said:

It's mostly noise, though the NS s/w is a little further west/slower on this run. Diabatic PV production from all of that convection is continuing to cause havoc. This just isn't going to be modeled as well as we'd all like because of it.

Better to take a blend and hedge slightly NW towards the coastal front for now. I still think that's going to be an important player.

That nasty advected dry boundary layer wedge on the NW side is going to be a player as well. Could be a brutal cutoff on the west side of wherever that band decides to set up.

That's my biggest takeaway today I think.  Well, that and the interaction of the northern stream s/w expanding the western shield of the precip or not.  Both are going to be hard to model and both have high risk.  I'm fully expecting to wake up to frozen brown on Thursday.  

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2 minutes ago, nj2va said:

It hasn’t happened yet.  There’s enough uncertainty with the western edge of precip that its anyone’s guess right now whether places like DC and Baltimore see nothing, flurries, or the elusive 1”.  Certainly makes this storm fun to track.

I agree. Even if DC doesn't get much, this storm will probably be historic for some. Pretty sure I saw a statistic that said that SE South Carolina counties haven't have a winter storm warning in nearly 1700 days or something like that, so this is pretty insane. 

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4 minutes ago, yoda said:

Should we care about the ensembles on the 18z GFS, or is it too close in?

As long as they show better chances of getting snow to the cities they are still very valuable. 

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