WinterWxLuvr Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 Just now, clskinsfan said: Ha. CMC is identical to my post above about the cutoff. I hope this thing can pull some LE streamers down over my area on Friday. That is the only snow we will see out here. Don't hold your breath on that one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RichmondTarHeel Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 1 minute ago, Cobalt said: This is my inner weenie chiming in too, but DT said that the RGEM was his secret weapon a while back. I hope he's right.. When does DT release his First Last Next Call Map? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cobalt Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 FWIW Deep Thunder We'll see how this "model" performs here.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
showmethesnow Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 5 minutes ago, high risk said: The next version of the HRRR (implementation late spring) will extend to 36h at 00,06,12,18z. Here is precip from the 12z run this morning. A little better on the west side of DC. 36 hours, because 18 hrs of HRRR postings is not enough. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MN Transplant Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 9 minutes ago, high risk said: The next version of the HRRR (implementation late spring) will extend to 36h at 00,06,12,18z. Here is precip from the 12z run this morning. A little better on the west side of DC. If that is the same as what shows up publicly on the rapidrefresh.noaa.gov site, it is better (western edge, not necessarily for mitchnick) than the 06z run Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
high risk Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 6 minutes ago, yoda said: Is that 0.10-0.25 QPF that DCA is in? Just wanted to make sure of the QPF zones... looks like .20 at DCA or so Fair question, and the labels could be better, but it's 0.10" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 1 minute ago, high risk said: Fair question, and the labels could be better, but it's 0.10" Thanks I def like it... looks like 0.15-0.20 total QPF in DCA Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
high risk Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 1 minute ago, MN Transplant said: If that is the same as what shows up publicly on the rapidrefresh.noaa.gov site, it is better than the 06z run Your plot is the ESRL run; mine is the official NCEP parallel. ESRL does plot the NCEP (EMC) version on their page. The two should be fairly similar, but there will be some diffs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 53 minutes ago, StantonParkHoya said: I GUARANTEE there will be a death band set up over Leesburg. I don't care if the storm is over Bermuda, it always happens. I hope so so we can have that whine train pull out of the Leesburg station. IJS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RichmondTarHeel Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 HRDerPS says Norfolk/VA beach gets plain rain Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quasievil Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 9 minutes ago, Cobalt said: FWIW Deep Thunder We'll see how this "model" performs here.. Probably more like the "Whatever gives NE the most snow" Model. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 24 minutes ago, Ger said: At what point did we know the March '17 event was busting too far west? That kind of bled the wrong way the last 48 hours in general right up until gametime if you used the globals. The NAM's were actually pretty spot on from about 48 hours out having that huge warm layer blasting way further NW then the rest of the guidance. Then the UKMET had a run showing similar somewhere around 36 hours out. Most threw them out...its the NAM and just a bad UK run...you know how we roll. In the end the Nam was dead on and the warm layer blasted way up through here and into southern PA when none of the globals had mixing issues for these areas even 12 hours out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RevWarReenactor Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 2 minutes ago, NovaTarHeel said: HRDerPS says Norfolk/VA beach gets plain rain That's a mess. Looks like rain gets into Atlantic City/Cape May and the Delaware/MD beaches, yet no precip expansion to the west. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MD Snow Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 3 minutes ago, Mdecoy said: That's a mess. Looks like rain gets into Atlantic City/Cape May and the Delaware/MD beaches, yet no precip expansion to the west. Yeah it screws everyone west of the bay. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MN Transplant Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 3 minutes ago, Mdecoy said: That's a mess. Looks like rain gets into Atlantic City/Cape May and the Delaware/MD beaches, yet no precip expansion to the west. The 0.10" line is well east of the other guidance so far. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
feloniousq Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 Isn't that just by 1 AM? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGolfBro Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 2 minutes ago, losetoa6 said: Latest 3hr pressure falls. Looks like highest towards SE coast of N. Carolina . Hopefully our storm rides right over the Obx . On radar you can see the storms firing up just of the coast pushing north west. Seems like a good bet our storm will get started around that area Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ellinwood Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 Is map. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cae Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 Just getting caught up on the runs since last night. The Euro wasn't as bad as I feared. Both the Euro and the 3k NAM are telling me the same thing. #PSUSnowMagnet Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Interstate Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 I wonder why NY City is still only under an Winter Storm Watch? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RichmondTarHeel Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 Raining along the SC and GA coast. Not sure if that matters to us yet or not, but I think they were expecting snow or at least a mix. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PDIII Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 1 minute ago, Interstate said: I wonder why NY City is still only under an Winter Storm Watch? because there is a chance they get less than 5 inches Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 48 minutes ago, DCTeacherman said: GFS is 1-3 again for us, ratios perhaps permitting someone close in DC to get to 3. This may end up surprising some people tomorrow morning. PHI currently working on nudging the advisories west for Delmarva it seems...would stand to think that LWX nudgets advisory back to Fairfax, Montgomery, Howard, Baltimore, Harford sometime this afternoon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SomeguyfromTakomaPark Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 1 minute ago, Eskimo Joe said: PHI currently working on nudging the advisories west for Delmarva it seems...would stand to think that LWX nudgets advisory back to Fairfax, Montgomery, Howard, Baltimore, Harford sometime this afternoon. Yeah it seems like the cold road temps, cold air temps, and timing of this will make it relatively high impact given the low (expected) snow totals. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RichmondTarHeel Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 Should we start an obs thread so we can get some good radar extrapolation from the South? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 11 minutes ago, cae said: Just getting caught up on the runs since last night. The Euro wasn't as bad as I feared. Both the Euro and the 3k NAM are telling me the same thing. #PSUSnowMagnet LOL at what the 3k did to places in east central NC and interior southeast VA. Places went from over 1" qpf to 0 in 2 runs. Not exactly consistent. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cae Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 43 minutes ago, mitchnick said: You must not have seen the 6z run then. Horrendous....around .05 qpf. This is good imho. Something strange seems to be going on with the off-hour GGEM runs. The 00z runs and 12z runs have been showing a fairly consistent story for two days now, but the 06z and 18z have been very different - much drier. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattie g Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 16 minutes ago, Interstate said: I wonder why NY City is still only under an Winter Storm Watch? Who f***ing cares? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Interstate Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 Models still having a hard time. Especially in the North East. CMC gives Conn 2-4 and GFS give 8+. I will take either IMY... 4ish Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 FWIW, 12z UKIE looks a lot better QPF wise... remember 00z UKIE gave us zilch Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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