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JAN 4th Coastal


H2O

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Turns east after 34 hours. But trends were good early. Use weenie rule, discard what it does later. 

The track was about as good as we can hope to 33 hours then it turned east. Had it continued North another 50 miles before the turn we would have done ok. Also it's still showing a very compact qpf depiction on the west side. Bob did an excellent job earlier explaining why that might happen. Typically the nam track would get D.C. into at least a moderate event. It's a bit east for a big one but shouldn't be on the fringe given that track if it had a more typical ccb. Unfortunately the interaction with the northern stream low might screw us over in much the same way miller bs do. 

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Gets a little stupid with the deepening rate starting around tau 30 though. Still suffering a bit with diabatic/latent-heat driven feedback issues if I had to guess. Important changes in the upper levels through that time, however. Definitely pulls the powerhouse elevated WAA in closer to the coast, to the point of mixing in sleet at ORF/LFI.

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3 minutes ago, Ji said:

thats a large storm to get kicked that far east so quickly. Nam3k looking good so far lol

it's just the lack of a phase.  you can see the benefits of the phase as it gets to new england.  still pretty interesting considering we still have 24 hrs left of trends in either direction.  i can picture this being like a hurricane where the western extent isn't nearly as impactful without a phase of sorts.

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4 minutes ago, csnavywx said:

Gets a little stupid with the deepening rate starting around tau 30 though. Still suffering a bit with diabatic/latent-heat driven feedback issues if I had to guess. Important changes in the upper levels through that time, however. Definitely pulls the powerhouse elevated WAA in closer to the coast, to the point of mixing in sleet at ORF/LFI.

One of the best things from the run was it goes to rain in VA beach and cape cod. Those are musts. We're not getting snow if Va beach stays all snow. That would be very rare. 

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6 minutes ago, WxUSAF said:

Convection...

That and the NS s/w starts kicking it out to sea. The dprog/dt from the last run shows just how important slowing down that northern wave is. Another bump or two west and we're talking more serious snows into the eastern metro. As it is, if you're near the bay, this run is pretty darn good.

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1 minute ago, Bob Chill said:

I really like what both nams did through 24 hours in the upperlevels. If we're going to get anything on the edge, that was a good start. 

Time....running out

If the rest of the models start off with similar changes to the Nam,  we could see a better result. 

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2 minutes ago, Ji said:

the NAM3k went west about 300 miles lol and still barely give us snow

The surface track isn't our biggest problem anymore. It's the way the system interacts with the northern stream low. They aren't phasing in time for us instead the circulation around the lakes low is messing with the moisture transport into our area. Put a high there and we would be looking at a nice event here. It's the same reason we get that super compact ccb with developing miller b storms that screw us over when the primary is west of us. Only this time it's a miller a but having a northern steam system to our northwest mutes it in the same way. Have to hope models are wrong about that. Some runs were having the trough interact in a way that was a capture more then a kicker and pulled moisture north up the trough. That was another way. It's a delicate interaction but most runs now have it an unfavorable one for us. 

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