Bob Chill Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 5 minutes ago, Hurricanegiants said: Does the 9:00 NAM Trump GFS at this stage 24 hours out? No, not even close. The NAM is not good at all with developing coastal storms. Especially big ones like this. IMHO- the NAM won't really be in its wheelhouse (whatever that is) until 12 hour leads. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 At 17 hrs, versus last run, trough is tugging the slp toward it off GA coast. Idk if it makes a difference, but it can't hurt. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 Just now, mitchnick said: At 17 hrs, versus last run, trough is tugging the slp toward it off GA coast. Idk if it makes a difference, but it can't hurt. Noticed that. Trough is a spot west of 18z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 Just now, WxWatcher007 said: If then. I hope we see the NAM tuck west with the precip, which would herald additional ticks west on the globals. Globals are still the way to go. I see in the NE forum that they're doing recon out for this one. Can't remember the last time I've heard that for a winter event. Mixing tropical and winter is making me feel all kinds of tingly. Seeing a good NAM run is always good of course. But the second the nam run is over we're waiting for confirmation with the globals. lol. We are due for a good nam'ing. If we don't get at least one fantasy nam run I'll be very disappointed in the NAM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 NAM is definitely west at 22hrs higher heights along the entire northeast and MA coast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 Swear 22 hrs looks much better Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 I'll admit that the NAM looks better. lol. Better ridging out in front of the vort. Should be tighter to the coast before it turns. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cae Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 19 minutes ago, Hurricanegiants said: Does the 9:00 NAM Trump GFS at this stage 24 hours out? Do you mean the 00z NAM vs the 18z GFS? On average, skill goes up pretty quickly as leads shorten, even if the model itself isn't as good. Here, I have no idea which model has the best handle on this storm. They're all giving us hints (of varying quality), but we still need to put it all together. It can be frustrating, but overly relying on any one model can lead to bad forecasts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wonderdog Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 Is it trying to go negative at 22 hrs? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 Hr 28 tucked in closer for sure than 18z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SomeguyfromTakomaPark Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 Jeez this is gonna be close. Much better low position. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 Yep better how much? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
feloniousq Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 22 minutes ago, Hurricanegiants said: Does the 9:00 NAM Trump GFS at this stage 24 hours out? At the rate Trump is going tonight we may have an unexpected acute torcher before Thursday. Some below normal temps thereafter, though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 Just now, DCTeacherman said: Jeez this is gonna be close. Much better low position. It will turn but man that is a good spot. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 Snowing at DCA at 33hr, pushing further west at 34... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 Yeah, it’s better. Not sure it’s worth any excitement tho. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
csnavywx Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 Really liking what I see at H7 and H5 already. Much better looking/stronger f-gen. Winds go SE and SSE much earlier. NS s/w a bit slower (trend continues), more neg tilt, better tie in of the SLP with the coastal front. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mosi76 Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 Yeah, it’s better. Not sure it’s worth any excitement tho. I mean it is the NAM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
87storms Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 Just now, stormtracker said: Yeah, it’s better. Not sure it’s worth any excitement tho. ha, yea, but i do like good trends even if it ends up being digital. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cae Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 Looking at the composite reflectivity maps on pivotalweather, it looks like the NAM puts up a sizable virga storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 Small closed low at 5h at 34 hrs off NC Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rtd208 Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 1 minute ago, mosi76 said: I mean it is the NAM You can only use that excuse for so long. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 Yeah, it’s better. Not sure it’s worth any excitement tho. Any snow is exciting to me. Especially snow that sticks everywhere. The .25” from last Saturday was better to me then the 2.5” in early December. I know I’m crazy though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 At 34 it's pivoting in our favor. Don't know when it will be shunted Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AfewUniversesBelowNormal Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 In this case, it's going to snow right through to the end (NAM issues). 2-4" here Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
VA Mad Man Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 2 minutes ago, mosi76 said: I mean it is the NAM When was the last time the NAM was spot on in calling a winter storm? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SomeguyfromTakomaPark Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 Shunted quick, not a lot of precip, and out by 39 but it’s another decent trend. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wonderdog Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 1 minute ago, MD Mad Man said: When was the last time the NAM was spot on in calling a winter storm? At hour 34 it's in its wheelhouse. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mosi76 Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 You can only use that excuse for so long. Don’t get me wrong, I’m a stan for the NAM. But only for entertainment purposes. Especially at this range Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 the problem i think is not how west it goes..its how far north it gets before it turns due east. If we can get it to go North about 50-100 more miles. This run gave me an hour of snow lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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