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JAN 4th Coastal


H2O

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8 minutes ago, SnowGoose69 said:

The Euro was upgraded in 2012 I think and January 2016.  Prior to the 2012 upgrade I found it was much better in the 84-108 hour period.  Since that I don’t think it’s as good 

Copy that.  I knew there was an upgrade, that wasn't very popular, and just couldn't remember when it took place

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44 minutes ago, SnowGoose69 said:

The Euro was upgraded in 2012 I think and January 2016.  Prior to the 2012 upgrade I found it was much better in the 84-108 hour period.  Since that I don’t think it’s as good 

The thing is, we compare the "old euro" with the new one versus the old gfs, and it was better. I just think the upgrades to the gfs make the euro far less impressive. Gfs is just not as prone to wacky high snow totals 3+ days out that the euro has been doing. 

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38 minutes ago, WVclimo said:

Me too, lol.  

It's early, but the 'easterners' have really taken a nice lead over the I-81 crew in snowfall so far.  I went back and compared MRB seasonal snowfall to BWI to see how common it is for the metro areas to exceed here for a season.  21 times in 92 years BWI has had more, so more common than I would have guessed.  Might be one of those years.

That is interesting. That number would probably be significantly lower at DCA considering they cant measure snow there and all.

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This is what I was talking about earlier from the BOS AFD:

Quote

Uncertainty....

As mentioned above this storm is still 2 days away and the
average model error at this time range is 50-75 miles. Thus
this applies to the axis of heaviest snow and the location of
the rain-snow line. Hence adjustments in later forecasts are
expected. Will models continue to trend westward in later runs?
Given the amplitude of the long wave pattern, system developing
over the Gulf Stream and convection possibly building the
downstream ridge more than models are simulating all suggest an
eastward trend is unlikely with some additional westward
adjustment possible. We`ve been told recon flights will collect
data shortly and this will likely help improve model
performance.

Will it matter for us?  Don't know, but this is still an intriguing tidbit to see

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56 minutes ago, C.A.P.E. said:

Looks like a pretty good bet lower DE will see 5-6". His criteria to head there was a foot. So since that does not look likely, it is still Oakland.

Yup, locked in to go to Oakland this time. Funny though over the last two winters now how I have had the opportunity to chase good snow in Millville, DE. They are on a run for that area.

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GFS did have a subtle but fundamental change @ 18z compared to all previous runs the last few days. This is the last 4 run trend gif. You can see what 18z did. It pulled the 540 contour under and also backed the 534 contour. That opened the door for the westward shift with the precip shield. The shield meets less resistance. It's not a door open but a door crack kind of thing and something I will definitely pay attention to @ 0z. Also, you can see the trough axis keeps incrementally bumping west as well. These tiny little changes could end up making a big difference in our yards. Any by big difference I mean snow instead of no snow. 

I jumped to quick to the conclusion earlier with the dominant surface low being the furthest west and how that could easily change in future runs. But in reality the upper levels made a nice jump in our favor for allowing the western precip to push further west. We can only hope this is a sign and not a blip. 

658EI08.gif 

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43 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

Agreed. No op is good with synoptic events beyond 96 hours and are very prone to large swings. Inside of 72 it's typically hard to beat the euro in general but I have seen exactly what you are talking about with slow adjustments. Personally, I think the GFS is much better than people give it credit for. It's a very good model. Prone to busts like any op but some people rag the hell out of it and all that tells me is their bias gets in the way of their ability to properly use the tools provided. We'll see how this storm goes down but it sure seems to me that the GFS has lead the way with consistency. It's been a rock in general while other globals have moved around quite a bit.

I would agree that GFS needs a bit more credit on any given day. That said, it was very poor at the surface compared to the Euro throughout December with the active pattern.

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4 minutes ago, 87storms said:

it would be legendary if dc somehow gets 2-4" from this.  that would really create a lot of debate.  certainly doesn't look like it, though.  gotta trust the models, seasoned mets, and active hobbyists.

Heh, my previous post shows how we can get there. Just need 2 more incremental bumps and it could happen. Storm will be booking so getting something like 4" or .4 qpf is going to be tough but I have to admit I think I see how it could happen for us if EVERYTHING breaks right. 

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3 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

Heh, my previous post shows how we can get there. Just need 2 more incremental bumps and it could happen. Storm will be booking so getting something like 4" or .4 qpf is going to be tough but I have to admit I think I see how it could happen for us if EVERYTHING breaks right. 

yea was just looking at the post.  this storm almost seems like a quasi jan 25/boxing day mix.  i guess the question at this point is how much of that will be jan 25 versus a whiff.  they do carry similar vibes...to me at least.

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Anyone check out https://twitter.com/crankywxguy last few tweets? His maps showing the various moving pieces of the puzzle seem to indicate a more western track is indeed possible. Def interesting to look at what is actually happening in the atmosphere currently as opposed to all the hand wringing over the wobbles occurring during every model run (not criticizing, I do it too haha...). Thoughts on his ideas? 

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4 minutes ago, MetalCapsFan said:

Anyone check out https://twitter.com/crankywxguy last few tweets? His maps showing the various moving pieces of the puzzle seem to indicate a more western track is indeed possible. Def interesting to look at what is actually happening in the atmosphere currently as opposed to all the hand wringing over the wobbles occurring during every model run (not criticizing, I do it too haha...). Thoughts on his ideas? 

No cloud is left untweeted about by this guy.

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20 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

GFS did have a subtle but fundamental change @ 18z compared to all previous runs the last few days. This is the last 4 run trend gif. You can see what 18z did. It pulled the 540 contour under and also backed the 534 contour. That opened the door for the westward shift with the precip shield. The shield meets less resistance. It's not a door open but a door crack kind of thing and something I will definitely pay attention to @ 0z. Also, you can see the trough axis keeps incrementally bumping west as well. These tiny little changes could end up making a big difference in our yards. Any by big difference I mean snow instead of no snow. 

I jumped to quick to the conclusion earlier with the dominant surface low being the furthest west and how that could easily change in future runs. But in reality the upper levels made a nice jump in our favor for allowing the western precip to push further west. We can only hope this is a sign and not a blip. 

 

Bob its posts like this with the visuals to further enhance the explanation that make the Mid-Atlantic top notch for knowledgeable people to learn from.  Even if things don’t break in DC’s favor, I feel like I’ve learned about analyzing the upper levels with complex setups like this.  

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Before the 00z suite starts, please bear with me as I try to understand what's going on here.  Based on HM's tweets and posts on this board, my understanding is that to get precip west of the bay we need some sort of onshore flow to establish at the upper levels.  Looking through maps, it looks like the clearest illustration of this might be at 700 mb.  Below are the 12z and 18z GFS runs at near the height of the storm at 700 mb.  The first thing I notice is the great white area over MD and VA.  My understanding is that the drop in winds speeds in that area is due to the interaction between the system to our SE and the one to the NW.  The one to the NW interferes with the ability of the coastal system to set up an onshore flow.

mVxRCVR.gif

The relevant change that occured at 18z appears to be that the 700 mb winds over the Delmarva peninsula went from more southerly (blowing to the north) to more easterly.  That allows for more moisture to be transported across the bay.  The reasons for this, if I understand correctly, are a combination of improved circulation around the coastal low, which is closer to the coast at 18z, as well as the system to our NW backing off a little.  This idea is supported by looking at a similar map for the 12z GGEM, which showed a relatively strong easterly wind at 700 mb, and more precipitation inland.  Am I looking at the right things?  I'm trying to learn here, so I'd appreciate any insights you all can give me.

 

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