pasnownut Posted January 2, 2018 Share Posted January 2, 2018 2 minutes ago, Jebman said: There are some folks in a certain part of the US that are literally flying around with joy right now. if you are referencing the eastern folk....I'm happy for them. Ever storm is not for everyone...we all know that. its been fun to watch all the same and in truth is still further west than i think many would have thought 2 days ago. Me included. Nut Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted January 2, 2018 Share Posted January 2, 2018 KInd of funny that the GFS went wet when all the other models including the 18Z NAM said, give up. I'd completely dismiss it except for the Euro EPS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pasnownut Posted January 2, 2018 Share Posted January 2, 2018 2 minutes ago, PhineasC said: I tend to think models overdo these cutoffs. Precip always gets a bit more north and west than progged. Nothing major for us but it will happen here, book it. tell that to the folks 25 miles to the west of said cutoff. lol been there....did that far too many times. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 2, 2018 Share Posted January 2, 2018 18 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: It does but it seems like an incremental step towards everything else. Unless everything else moves towards the rgem of course....heh...nah Can you hear it? Chomp munch glomp glomp....that's the sound of eating words Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
batmanbrad Posted January 2, 2018 Share Posted January 2, 2018 Who was it that said "just get the low to Hatteras" a while back? Well, at 036 hours, that's just about where it is... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 2, 2018 Share Posted January 2, 2018 1 minute ago, usedtobe said: KInd of funny that the GFS went wet when all the other models including the 18Z NAM said, give up. I'd completely dismiss it except for the Euro EPS. and the 12z GGEM was decent as well Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cae Posted January 2, 2018 Share Posted January 2, 2018 2 minutes ago, yoda said: Thats the 18z RGEM with Kuchera ratios I can understand the confusion though. West of the bay, there's not a lot of daylight between the RGEM and GFS now. Crazy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wonderdog Posted January 2, 2018 Share Posted January 2, 2018 Really tucked close to the coast for a while. Did I see the NS a little more north this run and that allowed the lp to ride up the coast a bit? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm Posted January 2, 2018 Share Posted January 2, 2018 GFS showed me enough glimmer of hope to be sucked back in.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cobalt Posted January 2, 2018 Share Posted January 2, 2018 2 minutes ago, batmanbrad said: Who was it that said "just get the low to Hatteras" a while back? Well, at 036 hours, that's just about where it is... It's more of originating near Hatteras. DT had a good video on it, but that low is certainly pretty West, that's for sure, at least compared to the past few runs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wonderdog Posted January 2, 2018 Share Posted January 2, 2018 Maybe the GFS will have the storm reach the Chesapeake before heading NE before it's all said and done.lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scraff Posted January 2, 2018 Share Posted January 2, 2018 Hang your hopes here... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeathermanB Posted January 2, 2018 Share Posted January 2, 2018 Doom and gloom for eastern NC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pasnownut Posted January 2, 2018 Share Posted January 2, 2018 1 minute ago, Bob Chill said: Can you hear it? Chomp munch glomp glomp....that's the sound of eating words I'd just be thinking about how you like em served IF you need to eat em. Hasnt happened yet, but in truth, yeah it has surprised as to how far west it has come. I didnt think it would go this far as well when looking at trough, 500's etc. No matter, this IS why we do what we do here. All good no matter the result. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wonderdog Posted January 2, 2018 Share Posted January 2, 2018 Just now, Cobalt said: It's more of originating near Hatteras. DT had a good video on it, but that low is certainly pretty West, that's for sure, at least compared to the past few runs. Showme mentioned that earlier. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
evaporativecooler Posted January 2, 2018 Share Posted January 2, 2018 6 minutes ago, pasnownut said: if you are referencing the eastern folk....I'm happy for them. Ever storm is not for everyone...we all know that. its been fun to watch all the same and in truth is still further west than i think many would have thought 2 days ago. Me included. Nut This storm is absolutely critical though. We only get the kind of Arctic air mass that's following it maybe once in 4-5 years. -25C 850's are special, I'm not gonna say I wouldn't be upset if we wasted all that upper level cold on worthless bare ground instead of maxxing it out with at least an inch of snowcover. I want -2F not 8F Saturday night, there's an entire world of difference. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted January 2, 2018 Share Posted January 2, 2018 Kuchera is 2” in DC and 1.9” in Baltimore. 1” line out near Dulles. SEVA 10”+. http://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=gfs&p=snku_acc&rh=2018010218&fh=54&r=us_ma&dpdt= Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Beachin Posted January 2, 2018 Share Posted January 2, 2018 Looks like we are set down here on the shore Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jebman Posted January 2, 2018 Share Posted January 2, 2018 7 minutes ago, pasnownut said: if you are referencing the eastern folk....I'm happy for them. Ever storm is not for everyone...we all know that. its been fun to watch all the same and in truth is still further west than i think many would have thought 2 days ago. Me included. Nut I am too, i hope they get about 2 feet lol. Would be nice if Wes got crushed by about 14 inches of snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 2, 2018 Share Posted January 2, 2018 1 minute ago, pasnownut said: I'd just be thinking about how you like em served IF you need to eat em. Hasnt happened yet, but in truth, yeah it has surprised as to how far west it has come. I didnt think it would go this far as well when looking at trough, 500's etc. No matter, this IS why we do what we do here. All good no matter the result. Gfs re-invited the double barrel tucked idea back on the table. My guess is it went a little nuts with convection but those were some tasty words that should keep me satisfied for another 6 hours. Digital commas are as pretty as digital snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 2, 2018 Share Posted January 2, 2018 You can see what the gfs is doing. Hard time resolving convection. 3 low centers and it chose the weenie one to be primary. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted January 2, 2018 Share Posted January 2, 2018 3 minutes ago, nj2va said: Kuchera is 2” in DC and 1.9” in Baltimore. 1” line out near Dulles. SEVA 10”+. http://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=gfs&p=snku_acc&rh=2018010218&fh=54&r=us_ma&dpdt= Gives me 3.00 inches, I'd sell my kid for 3", I forgot I don't have a kid. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gymengineer Posted January 2, 2018 Share Posted January 2, 2018 The I-95 corridor is not where the most drastic change happened in one single run. It’s the eastern NC up through the Delmarva beaches area— the GFS *finally* looks like the other models that have been consistently showing a major snowstorm for those areas. We know the 12Z Euro went dry there too, but that could reverse in the subsequent runs back to what it was showing yesterday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MountainGeek Posted January 2, 2018 Share Posted January 2, 2018 4 minutes ago, pasnownut said: tell that to the folks 25 miles to the west of said cutoff. lol been there....did that far too many times. but....but......didn't Mr Chill and others declare a couple days back that this would be all-or-nothing affair? Fringe was not an option! So if it's not going to be nothing, then we have to get hammered. And yeah, the latest RGEM and GFS are really gonna STING if verified, we on the western side have been getting the short end of the stick on every event so far this season. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted January 2, 2018 Share Posted January 2, 2018 4 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: Gfs re-invited the double barrel tucked idea back on the table. My guess is it went a little nuts with convection but those were some tasty words that should keep me satisfied for another 6 hours. Digital commas are as pretty as digital snow. GFS says the western edge convection goes wild and puts the low there. NAM says the eastern edge convection is where it's at. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StantonParkHoya Posted January 2, 2018 Share Posted January 2, 2018 Eastern NC is in for a pretty historic snow. Now the high-res + GFS models all show a foot plus down there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeathermanB Posted January 2, 2018 Share Posted January 2, 2018 2 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: You can see what the gfs is doing. Hard time resolving convection. 3 low centers and it chose the weenie one to be primary. But it's similar to a lot of different runs. Are you gonna come up with something other than the basic opinion "weenies"? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
batmanbrad Posted January 2, 2018 Share Posted January 2, 2018 3 hours ago, C.A.P.E. said: I think more than an inch is a better question. Oakland. if the models keep improving like the GFS just did, PhineasC might change his mind and go for Delaware again? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RichmondTarHeel Posted January 2, 2018 Share Posted January 2, 2018 I have a feeling this thing is going to keep ticking West until I-95 gets dumped on and our friends to the East worry about mixing. Of course, I have 0 met knowledge and I'm only whishcasting, but I see this type of thing happen often. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pasnownut Posted January 2, 2018 Share Posted January 2, 2018 My takeaway from this whole deal is that just like we see nice storms go POOF in seemingly the nicest of setups, they also can trend back from less than ideal setups into something. It really is the fascination I think many of us have with Meteorology, and the challenges associated (of course IMBY snow totals trump everything). I think it safe to say that so far the 2017-18 shows us all to well to not discount the unexpected. Not good for the hairline I know. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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