Jump to content
  • Member Statistics

    17,502
    Total Members
    7,904
    Most Online
    Weathernoob335
    Newest Member
    Weathernoob335
    Joined

JAN 4th Coastal


H2O

Recommended Posts

  • Replies 1.3k
  • Created
  • Last Reply
2 minutes ago, WeathermanB said:

Still a chance of the map being right.

We aren't 72+ hours out. We know the track, and it isn't good. As DT pointed out, "If the storm formed off of Georgia and had the classic Cape Hatteras to Cape Cod track, everyone (DC included), should be super happy". Issue is, it's forming off the coast of FLORIDA. This isn't a favorable track for DC, and is why areas to the Northeast also have substantially higher climo snow totals, since they catch storms like these. Let's just say everything trends spectacular during the next 24 hours. Even then, QPF for DC is probably only 0.2". Factor in, say 20:1 ratios, and that's 4", I guess? I hope I'm wrong, but we are running out of time. By this time before the storm during the Dec 8-9 storm, models trended West, and all of the ops had snow for DC.

Just now, feloniousq said:

Bold, but ultimately correct decision on that map to leave DC out entirely.

:lol:

Link to comment
Share on other sites

1 minute ago, BristowWx said:

From a meteorological standpoint this is going to be an epic event even if it doesn’t give us a flake.  If it lives to the full potential it’ll probably make Kocin’s next book.  I’m at least excited for that part

Probably will become a NESIS event

Link to comment
Share on other sites

1 minute ago, Cobalt said:

We aren't 72+ hours out. We know the track, and it isn't good. As DT pointed out, "If the storm formed off of Georgia and had the classic Cape Hatteras to Cape Cod track, everyone (DC included), should be super happy". Issue is, it's forming off the coast of FLORIDA. This isn't a favorable track for DC, and is why areas to the Northeast also have substantially higher climo snow totals, since they catch storms like these. Let's just say everything trends spectacular during the next 24 hours. Even then, QPF for DC is probably only 0.2". Factor in, say 20:1 ratios, and that's 4", I guess? I hope I'm wrong, but we are running out of time. By this time before the storm during the Dec 8-9 storm, models trended West, and all of the ops had snow for DC.

:lol:

I never realized this much could go wrong. Its amazing. On the NAM the low tracks within the same proximity to NE and they get clobbered.

I use to think, some cold air, strong low coming up the coast, game set match. Now its jet streaks, 500 this 700 that. What a horrible horrible area this is to live in for snow.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Just now, Mdecoy said:

I never realized this much could go wrong. Its amazing. On the NAM the low tracks within the same proximity to NE and they get clobbered.

I use to think, some cold air, strong low coming up the coast, game set match. Now its jet streaks, 500 this 700 that. What a horrible horrible area this is to live in for snow.

Like someone said, without Blizzards that we get every 7 years, we'd probably average 8-10" of snow. 2013/14 through 2015/16 were complete flukes, with the exception of maybe 2014/15. 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

1 minute ago, WeathermanB said:

QPF forecast looks to be a guess of 4-6 inches of snow for central and south delaware? Could be whiteout conditions thursday morning before it probably tapers off around 1 pm. Has us in the 0.25 shading, i'm guessing a high ratio of 20:1 or so. 

Awesome, I guess. 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

  • H2O unpinned this topic
  • WxUSAF locked this topic

Archived

This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.

Guest
This topic is now closed to further replies.
  • Recently Browsing   0 members

    • No registered users viewing this page.

×
×
  • Create New...