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showmethesnow

Jan 4th Coastal

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I think Levi is 100% right. That's a hell of a warm seclusion at 850mb, damn near subtropical-looking in the low levels. No doubt there will be plenty of convection, but it's way overdone. No doubt there will be some important effects from convection, but it's throwing off these NWP runs like mad.

The important thing is that the NS shortwave is slower and gives the southern wave more room and time to go negative.

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1 hour ago, Bob Chill said:

That would be me. And honestly, being out made it a lot easier. I might have to use this technique more often in the future. 

I'm in the boat with ya. It's been easier this way. If we pull off a miracle I won't be upset at all that I was wrong. But not being overly vested has avoided the emotional roller coaster. 

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The energy over Kentucky needs to either go away or be phased into the event or else there's going to be a very small western edge of the precip shield.  Should be a major red flag to everyone that only the NAMs and silly spin-offs like the CRAS, AWR and RPM have even advisory level snow west of the Bay.

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1 minute ago, psuhoffman said:

I'm in the boat with ya. It's been easier this way. If we pull off a miracle I won't be upset at all that I was wrong. But not being overly vested has avoided the emotional roller coaster. 

I have to remind myself the GFS gave us both zip.  These SREFs are just fun to look at.  

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4 minutes ago, Eskimo Joe said:

The energy over Kentucky needs to either go away or be phased into the event or else there's going to be a very small western edge of the precip shield.  Should be a major red flag to everyone that only the NAMs and silly spin-offs like the CRAS, AWR and RPM have even advisory level snow west of the Bay.

Yeah this one oozes heartbreak but as many have illuded to it’s nice to be tracking something appreciable in the short range. No matter how it works out. 

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2 minutes ago, pasnownut said:

Yeah this one oozes heartbreak but as many have illuded to it’s nice to be tracking something appreciable in the short range. No matter how it works out. 

Yeah, I agree with you. I have no expectations whatsoever, but the tracking has been pretty fun. 

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9 minutes ago, Eskimo Joe said:

The energy over Kentucky needs to either go away or be phased into the event or else there's going to be a very small western edge of the precip shield.  Should be a major red flag to everyone that only the NAMs and silly spin-offs like the CRAS, AWR and RPM have even advisory level snow west of the Bay.

And the NAVGEM, CMC, Euro, SREF and JMA. All have at least .1 to 95. 

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1 minute ago, pasnownut said:

Yeah this one oozes heartbreak but as many have illuded to it’s nice to be tracking something appreciable in the short range. No matter how it works out. 

I'll survive whether we score or not. Either way I will move onto or look for the next trackable system in the pipeline. That's what I do after all. :D 

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RGEM looks really nice. I trust it over the NAM.
If we have a 960 low near Carolina...that typically gives us snow

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Did I miss the time when the SREFs become something other than hot garbage? I actually thought they were being discontinued. 

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2 minutes ago, WxUSAF said:

Did I miss the time when the SREFs become something other than hot garbage? I actually thought they were being discontinued. 

Nope, they're still hot garbage. Apparently they got an upgrade last year, but so far the SREFs are the most bullish so far

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2 minutes ago, WxUSAF said:

Did I miss the time when the SREFs become something other than hot garbage? I actually thought they were being discontinued. 

I hope you get gas after you have to eat those words.  :P

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RGEM looks really nice. I trust it over the NAM.
U called it on ukmet. One of the most east models

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Just now, mitchnick said:

I hope you get gas after you have to eat those words.  :P

Believe me so do I, but having the SREFs lead the charge to get me something shovelable isn’t encouraging. 

Overall you can’t say the trends aren’t encouraging, but I still have my foot on the brake. It’s still a goofy setup with a lot of moving pieces.

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3 minutes ago, osfan24 said:

RGEM looks to be about 6-8 hours of moderate to heavy snow sandwiched by a few hours on each side of very light snow.

Where did you get that?  I think it only goes out to 54 hours.

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1 minute ago, WxUSAF said:

Believe me so do I, but having the SREFs lead the charge to get me something shovelable isn’t encouraging. 

Overall you can’t say the trends aren’t encouraging, but I still have my foot on the brake. It’s still a goofy setup with a lot of moving pieces.

Certainly the rug could be pulled out at any moment. But a lot of mets are continuing to hint that it's going to come even farther west and it seems like a lot of the models are continuing to trend west, especially some of the shorter-range ones.

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31 minutes ago, Eskimo Joe said:

For you weenies

 

   The ARW SREF members have a known bias to overamplify the living hell out of systems.   In the Jan 2016 storm, most of those members brought large snow totals well northwest of where they were observed.

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8 minutes ago, WxUSAF said:

Did I miss the time when the SREFs become something other than hot garbage? I actually thought they were being discontinued. 

You know how we roll... Pick the model with the most snow

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