Jump to content
  • Member Statistics

    17,502
    Total Members
    7,904
    Most Online
    Weathernoob335
    Newest Member
    Weathernoob335
    Joined

Jan 4th Coastal


showmethesnow

Recommended Posts

1 minute ago, Bob Chill said:

This. The only time I'll get excited for my yard is when all 3 globals show something other than no snow. The range of soltuions is still pretty far away from that. 

I mean look, I get it.  When you’re emotionally invested in a storm, you can get clouded (pun intended) and definitely biased. It happens to me still. You think every objective negative analysis is people out to sh*t on you when that’s not the case. 

Like you and most others, we’ve seen this whole thing play out countless times before. There have been Hail Mary comebacks, but after a certain timeframe and the tell tale signs don’t show up, you know where the road ends.  Again..hope I’m eating a whole flock of crow. 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

  • Replies 547
  • Created
  • Last Reply
5 minutes ago, stormtracker said:

Nah, if i was trying to do that, you’d know for sure.  I was just asking why the congrats already since there hasn’t been a storm yet or any *real* changes as of late.  Sure, it’s moving west, but outside of the eastern shore, we’re still smoking cirrus on the big three models. I want the storm as much as you do, I just try to be grounded and realistic about.  Maybe 0z will be.....

Ok you win...sorry i said anything...I know my place now

Link to comment
Share on other sites

7 minutes ago, stormtracker said:

I mean look, I get it.  When you’re emotionally invested in a storm, you can get clouded (pun intended) and definitely biased. It happens to me still. You think every objective negative analysis is people out to sh*t on you when that’s not the case. 

Like you and most others, we’ve seen this whole thing play out countless times before. There have been Hail Mary comebacks, but after a certain timeframe and the tell tale signs don’t show up, you know where the road ends.  Again..hope I’m eating a whole flock of crow. 

You're not even home go out and eat something and let us live in our fantasy world here

Link to comment
Share on other sites

3 minutes ago, Negnao said:

Basically the same thing I was trying to say when I got told I was being negative. Until the big dogs bite on this storm, best to temper expectations. That's all. You just said it better. Lol

Riding the edge of big storms is brutal. I can't think of a time outside of 48 hours where I felt good being on the edge. I do believe the gfs has a se bias with precip with coastals so that's in my mind. Conversely, I don't trust the accuracy of the rest enough to discount anything.

This storm has one very bad/difficult thing going for it....it's not born yet and when it does its going to become really big really fast. If this was a more normal long track storm i would trust the euro the most. But not when a storm doesn't even exist yet.

Models are nothing but giant complicated calculators. A hell of a lot of math goes into something like this and the data is imperfect. That allows errors to extrapolate and magnify quickly. If this storm was over land and already getting underway I would feel different. It's pretty wild how much stuff is about to happen in the atmosphere in the next 72 hours. 

Models are really good but this specific instance is unusually complicated. We're still a good 24 hours at least from understanding what is possible here out on the edge. The delmarva is getting snow. That's probably a lock. How much is another big bag of who knows. Haha

Link to comment
Share on other sites

13 minutes ago, stormtracker said:

I mean look, I get it.  When you’re emotionally invested in a storm, you can get clouded (pun intended) and definitely biased. It happens to me still. You think every objective negative analysis is people out to sh*t on you when that’s not the case. 

Like you and most others, we’ve seen this whole thing play out countless times before. There have been Hail Mary comebacks, but after a certain timeframe and the tell tale signs don’t show up, you know where the road ends.  Again..hope I’m eating a whole flock of crow. 

we needed a 250 mile shift a few days ago....we got it...and its still showing no snow for us lol

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Just now, Ji said:

with the GFS, it feels like weve been stuck in place for 3 days. 

Either the GFS is the worst model currently, and will cave with the others, or it's the best, and every other guidance caves with the GFS. I have no idea which one is more likely, but the GFS has barely moved for the past 6 runs

Link to comment
Share on other sites

2 minutes ago, WeathermanB said:

I said i was just preparing... not like i'm gonna buy 100 loaves of bread or 100 jugs of milk. I'm getting ready just in case.

Don’t forget toilet paper.  Somehow snowstorms make people hit the crapper more than usual.  Proven fact

Link to comment
Share on other sites

1 minute ago, Cobalt said:

Either the GFS is the worst model currently, and will cave with the others, or it's the best, and every other guidance caves with the GFS. I have no idea which one is more likely, but the GFS has barely moved for the past 6 runs

That is what concerns me the most.  It’s been rock solid.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

2 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

If it makes you feel any better...the gefs shifted the trace line half a county west. 

Lol

i am actually enjoying this storm because we never had a chance. I was really depressed when the monster STJ 60 hour snowstorms went away. We had a stretch there where every model...no matter what the solution gave us double digit snow. That was depressing. this is actually stress free-fun. Of course, both will result in no snow

Link to comment
Share on other sites

8 minutes ago, Cobalt said:

Either the GFS is the worst model currently, and will cave with the others, or it's the best, and every other guidance caves with the GFS. I have no idea which one is more likely, but the GFS has barely moved for the past 6 runs

That should tell you something. Never discount the GFS. And, a lot of this is pattern recognition. I would be shocked if the GFS totally misses this at 48 - 72.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

3 minutes ago, WeathermanB said:

If the storm busts for Delaware, there will still be enough snow to close school in delaware, it only takes about 2 inches falling at the right time to shut down my school district. The roads will be ice covered due to mega cold and warm up not till sunday

Thanks Jim...now for sports with Skeeter Williams

Link to comment
Share on other sites

  • WxUSAF unpinned and locked this topic

Archived

This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.

Guest
This topic is now closed to further replies.
  • Recently Browsing   0 members

    • No registered users viewing this page.

×
×
  • Create New...