January Discobs Thread

[HighStakes]

54 minutes ago, mappy said:

low of 7

Same here.

[arlwx]

I think there's snow sublimation going on.

I couldn't see into my car in Arlington VA this morning, and now I can.

 

[mappy]

4 minutes ago, HighStakes said:

Same here.

11th day below freezing. 

[Bob Chill]

13 minutes ago, mappy said:

11th day below freezing. 

That's the big story the last couple weeks. This is an impressive stretch of cold no matter what metric you use. Doesn't come around very often either. I'll defer to the stat heads but I'll bet if you dig back through time, long duration well below normal temps correlates with dry conditions in these parts. 

[T. August]

Low of 12, wc -4. Is an inch of snow enough to lower temps on a rad cooling night?

[Bodhi Cove]

1 hour ago, mappy said:

11th day below freezing. 

After seeing the December BGE bill, I'm dreading the January bill, big time!

Please tell me we're in for a non windy warm up the rest of this month. 

Edit to add that these wind gusts aren't messing around. I keep thinking our awning is going to rattle loose.

[mappy]

20 minutes ago, MiddleRvrwx said:

After seeing the December BGE bill, I'm dreading the January bill, big time!

Please tell me we're in for a non windy warm up the rest of this month. 

Edit to add that these wind gusts aren't messing around. I keep thinking our awning is going to rattle loose.

I am not interested in seeing our bill

[Bodhi Cove]

1 minute ago, mappy said:

I am not interested in seeing our bill

I've heard wine or whiskey resolves the issue. 

[gymengineer]

1 hour ago, Bob Chill said:

That's the big story the last couple weeks. This is an impressive stretch of cold no matter what metric you use. Doesn't come around very often either. I'll defer to the stat heads but I'll bet if you dig back through time, long duration well below normal temps correlates with dry conditions in these parts. 

Hmmm, from what I've seen, it varies. But I haven't looked at all the multi-week long periods. And it's kind of hard to mark when the extreme cold started, especially if it was preceded by or followed by a somewhat milder, but still well below normal temp period. 

Just a few examples:

12/16-12/25 1989- 10 days below freezing for a high at DCA. No precip.  *But*, right before that extreme cold period, there were two snowstorms within a week in a stretch with highs only in the 30's. That's cold for early December too but not the extreme cold that immediately followed it.

1/13-1/31 2004- 11 of 13 days with highs below freezing at DCA- one of the days above freezing was a spike to mid 40's, so maybe this is really two periods.  There was 5.7" snow in one complex multi-day event on 1/25-1/27

And one of the more legendary of cold periods- 1/19-2/4 1961: 12 of 17 days below freezing highs at DCA and five lows in the single digits. The highs above freezing were no higher than the mid-30's- kind of like the current stretch we're in.  21.9" snow from three storms. 

You've piqued my curiosity, so I'll do more extensive research and maybe start a thread. 

 

[Bob Chill]

1 minute ago, gymengineer said:

Hmmm, from what I've seen, it varies. But I haven't looked at all the multi-week long periods. And it's kind of hard to mark when the extreme cold started, especially if it was preceded by or followed by a somewhat milder, but still well below normal temp period. 

Just a few examples:

12/16-12/25 1989- 10 days below freezing for a high at DCA. No precip.  *But*, right before that extreme cold period, there were two snowstorms within a week in a stretch with highs only in the 30's. That's cold for early December too but not the extreme cold that immediately followed it.

1/13-1/31 2004- 11 of 13 days with highs below freezing at DCA- one of the days above freezing was a spike to mid 40's, so maybe this is really two periods.  There was 5.7" snow in one complex multi-day event on 1/25-1/27

And one of the more legendary of cold periods- 1/19-2/4 1961: 12 of 17 days below freezing highs at DCA and five lows in the single digits. The highs above freezing were no higher than the mid-30's- kind of like the current stretch we're in.  21.9" snow from three storms. 

You've piqued my curiosity, so I'll do more extensive research and maybe start a thread. 

 

I can always count on you for this stuff. Love it. There's probably going to be an enso connection with the bigger precip years if I had to guess. The thing about this year was how extreme it was. When uber cold pushes into the deep south and even Florida it usually means blue skies and shivers here. No way you can drill down to that level and I don't want you to. I'd be more interested in comparing ENSO to the cold periods. 

[H2O]

If my gas bill is under $200 I'd be stunned.

Not sure the temp outside right now but that wind is right.  

[WVclimo]

Looks like MRB has a shot at another record today.  Currently 15 and the previous low-max record for the date is 19 from 1968.  If they pull it off, it will be the 3rd time in a week the low-max record was broken there (12/31 and 1/1.)  And last week we missed another record by one degree.  Tomorrow might be tough to break 18 (from 1988.)  Still impressive to be breaking cold records in January !

ETA: Just realized that the low of 0 on the 3rd was also a record for MRB, beating the 4 degree reading of 1971

[Maestrobjwa]

2 hours ago, Bob Chill said:

That's the big story the last couple weeks. This is an impressive stretch of cold no matter what metric you use. Doesn't come around very often either. I'll defer to the stat heads but I'll bet if you dig back through time, long duration well below normal temps correlates with dry conditions in these parts. 

So one of the few cases of actually having TOO MUCH cold air for snow around here, lol Go figure! (whereas last year we didn't have nearly enough!)

[gymengineer]

59 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

I can always count on you for this stuff. Love it. There's probably going to be an enso connection with the bigger precip years if I had to guess. The thing about this year was how extreme it was. When uber cold pushes into the deep south and even Florida it usually means blue skies and shivers here. No way you can drill down to that level and I don't want you to. I'd be more interested in comparing ENSO to the cold periods. 

Yup, exactly-- the orientation of the trough matters so much. The configuration we've had that's driven the cold clear across the Atlantic coast in the Southeast US is no good for our snow chances. In the other amazing extreme, we had 2/7/1979 to 2/19/1979: 10 of 13 days with a high below freezing (the three above freezing were just mid-30's) at DCA; 10 of 13 days had lows in the *teens* or lower, with four of those in the single digits (!!). Yet, that period saw: 5.6", 0.4", 5.6", 0.3", and 18.7". So, one of the coldest two weeks in our history was also very active for us. 

Edited to add: The numbers at IAD were insane-- here are the lows during that stretch: 18, 12, 10, -10, -7, 7, 0, -5, 18, 16, -4, -14, 7

[nw baltimore wx]

51 minutes ago, gymengineer said:

Yup, exactly-- the orientation of the trough matters so much. The configuration we've had that's driven the cold clear across the Atlantic coast in the Southeast US is no good for our snow chances. In the other amazing extreme, we had 2/7/1979 to 2/19/1979: 10 of 13 days with a high below freezing (the three above freezing were just mid-30's) at DCA; 10 of 13 days had lows in the *teens* or lower, with four of those in the single digits (!!). Yet, that period saw: 5.6", 0.4", 5.6", 0.3", and 18.7". So, one of the coldest two weeks in our history was also very active for us. 

Edited to add: The numbers at IAD were insane-- here are the lows during that stretch: 18, 12, 10, -10, -7, 7, 0, -5, 18, 16, -4, -14, 7

That stretch in February 79 is one of the best winter periods we've ever had around these parts.  Remarkable cold with snow cover culminating with the first huge storm of my life (and my favorite) on President's Day.

[PrinceFrederickWx]

1 hour ago, gymengineer said:

Hmmm, from what I've seen, it varies. But I haven't looked at all the multi-week long periods. And it's kind of hard to mark when the extreme cold started, especially if it was preceded by or followed by a somewhat milder, but still well below normal temp period. 

Just a few examples:

12/16-12/25 1989- 10 days below freezing for a high at DCA. No precip.  *But*, right before that extreme cold period, there were two snowstorms within a week in a stretch with highs only in the 30's. That's cold for early December too but not the extreme cold that immediately followed it.

1/13-1/31 2004- 11 of 13 days with highs below freezing at DCA- one of the days above freezing was a spike to mid 40's, so maybe this is really two periods.  There was 5.7" snow in one complex multi-day event on 1/25-1/27

And one of the more legendary of cold periods- 1/19-2/4 1961: 12 of 17 days below freezing highs at DCA and five lows in the single digits. The highs above freezing were no higher than the mid-30's- kind of like the current stretch we're in.  21.9" snow from three storms. 

You've piqued my curiosity, so I'll do more extensive research and maybe start a thread. 

 

Some more to consider (actual date cutoffs are kinda arbitrary):

Feb 5-15, 1899 (nothing compares to this one)

Feb. 1-28, 1934

Jan. 10-27, 1982

Jan. 11-23, 1984

Jan. 9-27, 1985

Jan. 14-22, 1994

Feb. 13- Mar. 7, 2015

 

 

[87storms]

these temps would be ideal if there was a developing low pressure over the tennessee valley headed towards southern virginia.

[smokeybandit]

1 hour ago, H2O said:

If my gas bill is under $200 I'd be stunned.

 

Yeah I'm prepared for a record high bill for this month.

[Bob Chill]

9 minutes ago, nw baltimore wx said:

That stretch in February 79 is one of the best winter periods we've ever had around these parts.  Remarkable cold with snow cover culminating with the first huge storm of my life (and my favorite) on President's Day.

That's what set the hook for life with me and is probably the primary reason I threw away a college education for 9 years and lived in the Rockies in the 90s.

Frozen bay, multiple storms, and a monster pretty much blew my mind. Been chasing it ever since. It's a silly hobby but harmless and fun. Except when I stay up until 2am when I have important stuff to do at 7am so not completely harmless...lol

[87storms]

31 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

That's what set the hook for life with me and is probably the primary reason I threw away a college education for 9 years and lived in the Rockies in the 90s.

Frozen bay, multiple storms, and a monster pretty much blew my mind. Been chasing it ever since. It's a silly hobby but harmless and fun. Except when I stay up until 2am when I have important stuff to do at 7am so not completely harmless...lol

do you or anyone know of a link that goes further back than 95?  this is the only one i know of that has historical "readily available" radar: https://mesonet.agron.iastate.edu/current/mcview.phtml?prod=usrad&java=script&mode=archive&frames=60&interval=60&year=2014&month=2&day=12&hour=0&minute=0

 

feb 2006 for those interested: https://mesonet.agron.iastate.edu/current/mcview.phtml?prod=usrad&java=script&mode=archive&frames=60&interval=60&year=2006&month=2&day=12&hour=0&minute=0

 

[WEATHER53]

High for the day 18.2

in my long range outlook I called for at least one day where temps at D.C. Area stations would not exceed 20.  I went -0.5 to +0.5 for December,  -3 to -5 for Jan and referenced historic cold possibilities , and +2 for Feb. 10-15" snow for area

Reminiscing about 1977 I remember how it was such a polar landscape that you could not tell where the mouth of South River started and the land ended. People  were out on it in trucks and bonfires.  No vehicles on the Bay but lots of people walking on it

great photos of that with the steel span as backdrop. Temps fell below freezing every night from very late Dec to very early Feb and I think the thaw was one day with a high of 44 and then deep freeze again 

 

 

[WEATHER53]

These recaps are great. DCA goes back too far to be truly comparatively relevant but can anyone find and publish the top 10 coldest highs at IAD? I think BWI, for some odd reason, has now incorporated the older "custom house" readings into the airport records which go back to 1880's like DCA 

[WEATHER53]

1982 was the back to back "Cold Sunday's" where daytime highs were low to mid teens and lows below zero. I had my 2nd coldest low ever, -5.  Coldest ever 1994 at -6(85 inauguration also)and that one day in 94 with single digit highs  and a temp of 0 at 6pm is a standout #1 coldest all time for me .

[Sparky]

Cold windy day here high 13 low 7.

[CAPE]

16 here.

 

[T. August]

18.9 for the high

[WVclimo]

2 hours ago, Tenman Johnson said:

High for the day 18.2

in my long range outlook I called for at least one day where temps at D.C. Area stations would not exceed 20.  I went -0.5 to +0.5 for December,  -3 to -5 for Jan and referenced historic cold possibilities , and +2 for Feb. 10-15" snow for area

Reminiscing about 1977 I remember how it was such a polar landscape that you could not tell where the mouth of South River started and the land ended. People  were out on it in trucks and bonfires.  No vehicles on the Bay but lots of people walking on it

great photos of that with the steel span as backdrop. Temps fell below freezing every night from very late Dec to very early Feb and I think the thaw was one day with a high of 44 and then deep freeze again 

 

 

Things seem to be panning out pretty well for your forecast .   Hope you’re too warm for February.  

January 1977 was the coldest month ever for my area.  This current period, from 12/26 through 1/7, may actually have a lower mean temperature than where that month finished.  An impressive 12 day stretch,  but unfortunately not the duration of ‘77 .

[87storms]

it's stupid cold out.  was working today, so only got out for lunch and then took a walk outside around 4 and lasted about 15 minutes.  the wind is biting and it really reminds me a little of my trip to killington in 94 (yes, during 94) when the wind chill at the top of the mountain was like 50-80 below zero.  true story.  it was absolutely miserable and i even got mini frostbite on my hands.  the next day it warmed and snowed, and felt amazing in comparison.  that is a great mountain, though.  it would be cool to back again...when it's not that cold.

[Bob Chill]

My favorite memory from Jan 1977 was on the west river on the bay. My parents had a boat and we had to check on it every weekend to make sure the bubblers were keeping the ice from damaging the hull. The first thing that blew my mind were the ice sailboats doing literally 60mph across the ice. Then I saw people driving trucks across the ice to save time driving from Shady Side to Galesville. I skated literally for miles. Since there was no snow the ice was crazy smooth. 

I spent hours trying to smash a hole in the ice with a big rock. I never made it through and I was at least 8" down. IIRC- the ice was over a foot thick in the rivers. That will probably never happen again but I'll never forget it  

[WVclimo]

27 straight hours here with sub-zero wind chills.  Looks to continue for a while.  Martinsburg broke their record for the coldest high for 1/5 today, the 4th new record set this week