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January Banter String

George BM

By George BM,
in Mid Atlantic

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Interstate

Interstate

Posted
Posted
4 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

 

Yes let's protect people from themselves because a few people don't know what their doing. Let's ban the sale of hammers because some moron broke his thumb. Big brother much?

Let me ask you this?  How often are an operational model correct after day 5?  Why do they need to run on a 6 hour increment to 384?  I know you are going to say general patterns, but I feel like most of the times there are such wild swings that they are unless.  Just look at the 12z GFS H5 at 150 and toggle back through 5 runs.  You will see 100's miles  shift in the ridge in the central part of the country.

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psuhoffman

psuhoffman

Posted
Posted
14 minutes ago, Interstate said:

Let me ask you this?  How often are an operational model correct after day 5?  Why do they need to run on a 6 hour increment to 384?  I know you are going to say general patterns, but I feel like most of the times there are such wild swings that they are unless.  Just look at the 12z GFS H5 at 150 and toggle back through 5 runs.  You will see 100's miles  shift in the ridge in the central part of the country.

The operational has to run because it is the basis for the ensembles which do have value in helping us predict patterns past day 5.  The operational run itself though should be taken as barely more usefull then any one of the ensemble members.  But without the operational you have no baseline for the ensembles to run off of.  Again, if you know what your doing then there is no issue here.  And if some people don't know what their doing and use the tools wrong, so what?  It gets them a little excited for snow that isn't coming, oh no?  Is anyone really changing plans over a 300 hour GFS storm?  You can't design society to eliminate stupidity or else you limit all of us just because some poeple don't know what their doing.  They can either learn over time how to use the tools better or they can continue to get all excited over fantasy storms that won't happen, either way its no big deal IMO.  Not enough of one to do what your saying.  Not even close.  

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Interstate

Interstate

Posted
Posted
8 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

The operational has to run because it is the basis for the ensembles which do have value in helping us predict patterns past day 5.  The operational run itself though should be taken as barely more usefull then any one of the ensemble members.  But without the operational you have no baseline for the ensembles to run off of.  Again, if you know what your doing then there is no issue here.  And if some people don't know what their doing and use the tools wrong, so what?  It gets them a little excited for snow that isn't coming, oh no?  Is anyone really changing plans over a 300 hour GFS storm?  You can't design society to eliminate stupidity or else you limit all of us just because some poeple don't know what their doing.  They can either learn over time how to use the tools better or they can continue to get all excited over fantasy storms that won't happen, either way its no big deal IMO.  Not enough of one to do what your saying.  Not even close.  

Let's have the best of both worlds then... Have the operational only available to the public up until hour 120... but the ensembles to 384.

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psuhoffman

psuhoffman

Posted
Posted
17 minutes ago, Interstate said:

Let's have the best of both worlds then... Have the operational only available to the public up until hour 120... but the ensembles to 384.

Why do you want to hide things from the public? What is the great harm being done here? Some weenies get heartbroken over a fantasy storm disappearing?  

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mappy

mappy

Posted
Posted
4 hours ago, mattie g said:

 

I agree with this in principle, but I draw the line at the flu. No f**king way in hell do I want my 4-month-old to be exposed to it.

There's also a limitation to how much a little kid can take. It's one thing to have a cold here and there (and that's probably beneficial in the long run), but being *constantly* sick isn't good for a child's mental and/or physical development.

I agree completely. I wasn't purposely exposing my kid to stuff, but also wasn't "up in arms" (as some of my mom friends have been before) because she was sick with something. 

Agree with your second point too. I can understand how my post may have been taken in a way that I was saying my kid was always sick. Head colds sure, but she wasn't always sick with some kind of viral infection that knocked us all down. She's just had the usual; croup, roseola, strep throat, stomach bugs, hand/foot/mouth, and the flu, once. But I have noticed that as she has gotten older (she's about the same as your first, B? I believe) she doesn't get sick as often. When she does its strep throat or a legit bug. The common cold doesn't happen nearly as often as it use to.  

3 hours ago, C.A.P.E. said:

He is a nut. Even for Dover that winter was a great one. To each their own I suppose. Not everyone likes persistent cold and above average snowfall.

And btw, Dover is in central DE, and part of this subforum...unless something has changed.

i forget that DE is actually included as a place under the subforum title. either way, what he said in the long range thread was dumb. 

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Interstate

Interstate

Posted
Posted
55 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

Why do you want to hide things from the public? What is the great harm being done here? Some weenies get heartbroken over a fantasy storm disappearing?  

I am ask the same question to you.  What use does the OP have after 5 days... when it will just have wild swings for the most part.  It becomes unreliable.  Wouldn't it be better for the average person not to see fantasy snows? 

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87storms

87storms

Posted
Posted

@AfewUniversesBelowNormal i'm kidding, but i honestly don't understand some of your posts.  global warming exists.  any idiot knows that by now, but not sure how much that really needs to be applied on a daily basis to forecasting.  let's see what happens with february.  this area has always sucked with getting start to finish cold winters, so none of this year should really surprise anyone.

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psuhoffman

psuhoffman

Posted
Posted
48 minutes ago, Interstate said:

I am ask the same question to you.  What use does the OP have after 5 days... when it will just have wild swings for the most part.  It becomes unreliable.  Wouldn't it be better for the average person not to see fantasy snows? 

I already explained what the op is. But what does it matter how accurate it is the point I'm making is why is hiding or preventing people from seeing it the answer?  Ignorance is your solution. Or worse forced ignorance. People can see it and decide for themselves what to do with it. If some people believe a 300 hour prog exactly verbatim that's their problem but it's also their choice. Your trying to make the decision for other people like you have some right to decide what we should or shouldn't look at and what's the greater good. Let people do what they want and see everything and make their own decisions. Some will make good and some bad but I'm not in favor of taking away people's freedom or access to information. 

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Interstate

Interstate

Posted
Posted
7 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

I already explained what the op is. But what does it matter how accurate it is the point I'm making is why is hiding or preventing people from seeing it the answer?  Ignorance is your solution. Or worse forced ignorance. People can see it and decide for themselves what to do with it. If some people believe a 300 hour prog exactly verbatim that's their problem but it's also their choice. Your trying to make the decision for other people like you have some right to decide what we should or shouldn't look at and what's the greater good. Let people do what they want and see everything and make their own decisions. Some will make good and some bad but I'm not in favor of taking away people's freedom or access to flawed information that will never be remotely correct. 

I am all about people's freedom and I fixed your statement.

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87storms

87storms

Posted
Posted
32 minutes ago, mappy said:

can we stop calling others crazy?

did you miss the part where i said i was kidding?  also, for someone who lives off of snark and cramping people's enthusiasm during a snowstorm, i'm not convinced you should be advising others on how to act.  didn't we already go through this before?  i get along with pretty much everyone here except you.  i don't find you to be a particularly friendly online presence.

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psuhoffman

psuhoffman

Posted
Posted
16 minutes ago, Interstate said:

I am all about people's freedom and I fixed your statement.

But not the freedom to see NWP?  People watch and read sports predictions too even though those scores are almost never right. We gonna ban that also?  Why do you care what other people decide to look at and how they react to it.?  Let people make their own choices as long as their not hurting anyone. 

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Interstate

Interstate

Posted
Posted
17 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

Nothing will erase the abuse some Vikings fans had to endure at the hands of some idiots but at least not everyone is acting that way. 

http://www.espn.com/nfl/story/_/id/22198230/philadelphia-eagles-fans-donating-charity-make-bad-behavior

Yep... They are the worse on the East Coast.

 

http://profootballtalk.nbcsports.com/2011/01/11/another-proud-moment-for-philadelphia-sports-fans/

 

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Bob Chill

Bob Chill

Posted
Posted
1 hour ago, Interstate said:

I am all about people's freedom and I fixed your statement.

I'm not sure what your point is. The ensembles have done a pretty excellent job of getting the late Dec flip right, then getting the flip to a thaw/+EPO right, and now they are getting the flip back to a -EPO and colder regime right. ALL of this was done beyond 10 day leads. Even the weeklies have been doing very well with 3-4 week lead stuff. Every single discussion about lr pattern changes has panned out almost to the day from way out in time. If you can't see that and see how incredibly good NWP is then you're not looking at the right stuff. 

If you're talking about discrete events on op runs beyond 5 days not working out then I still don't know what your point is. Anyone who has been at this game for any length of time knows that you can't predict verbatim weather like that and if you set concrete expectation based on op output beyond 5 days then your expectations will be busted 3 out of 4 times. However, ops do show a range of outcomes that are absolutely discussion worthy even if not accurate at med to long ranges. You can glean things like timing, is cold trending faster or slower, is the shortwave trending faster, slower, amped, flat, etc and a whole plethora of other pieces of useful information. The fun with this hobby is tracking, dissecting infomation, forming logical assumptions, and things like that. ALL of which is assisted by op and ensemble runs from long range. 

 

If you're just looking for a picture perfect and accurate weather movie that plays out perfectly 10 days in advance then pick another hobby. 

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psuhoffman

psuhoffman

Posted
Posted
18 minutes ago, Interstate said:

Yep... They are the worse on the East Coast.

 

http://profootballtalk.nbcsports.com/2011/01/11/another-proud-moment-for-philadelphia-sports-fans/

 

thanks for dragging things back into the gutter...and with a story from 2011 no less. 

Fine you win. Eagles fans are all soulless ghouls and goblins that eat babies in our spare time. Every story is true and furthermore no other fans act that way. I'm always treated like an angel when I'm a visitor in NY or Pittsburgh wearing my eagles gear.  

For the record eagles game days typically average 7 arrests. Steelers games average 17. And I've witnessed them behaving worse then a typical eagles game experience. 

This makes me uncomfortable because I hate being put on the side of defending indefensible behavior by morons. But I also am tired of the piling on that happens with eagles games. Even when it's not that bad one freaking thing happens to one person and it's all over the news adding to the reputation. It's a lazy easy story. I've been to games all over and I've seen no appreciable difference between eagles fans or Giants or steelers. Redskins fans so seem nicer. And I've been told the fans in the middle part of the country aren't as nasty. But what I experience at eagles games is no worse than many other east coast locations but then I have to read about how awful it is over and over. 

A lot of this crap happens all over. An eagles reporter had their car windshield smashed out one time at Giants stadium. I've had beer thrown at me. I've been cursed at.  But I don't go around trying to make all Giants or steelers fans out to be monsters. There are drunk idiots at football games that do stupid stuff. Philly is one of the worst in that regards but it's not as out of control as I hear some making it. It's not out of line from what I witness in other places or what I witnessed at Penn state and WVU football games either. 

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Interstate

Interstate

Posted
Posted
4 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

I'm not sure what your point is. The ensembles have done a pretty excellent job of getting the late Dec flip right, then getting the flip to a thaw/+EPO right, and now they are getting the flip back to a -EPO and colder regime right. ALL of this was done beyond 10 day leads. Even the weeklies have been doing very well with 3-4 week lead stuff. Every single discussion about lr pattern changes has panned out almost to the day from way out in time. If you can't see that and see how incredibly good NWP is then you're not looking at the right stuff. 

If you're talking about discrete events on op runs beyond 5 days not working out then I still don't know what your point is. Anyone who has been at this game for any length of time knows that you can't predict verbatim weather like that and if you set concrete expectation based on op output beyond 5 days then your expectations will be busted 3 out of 4 times. However, ops do show a range of outcomes that are absolutely discussion worthy even if not accurate at med to long ranges. You can glean things like timing, is cold trending faster or slower, is the shortwave trending faster, slower, amped, flat, etc and a whole plethora of other pieces of useful information. The fun with this hobby is tracking, dissecting infomation, forming logical assumptions, and things like that. ALL of which is assisted by op and ensemble runs from long range. 

 

If you're just looking for a picture perfect and accurate weather movie that plays out perfectly 10 days in advance then pick another hobby. 

I am all for the ensembles going out past 5 days... Just not the OP.  The OP just has too many wild swings past 5 days.  This is just my opinion and will be the last time I comment on it.

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Interstate

Interstate

Posted
Posted
3 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

thanks for dragging things back into the gutter...and with a story from 2011 no less. 

Fine you win. Eagles fans are all soulless ghouls and goblins that eat babies in our spare time. Every story is true and furthermore no other fans act that way. I'm always treated like an angel when I'm a visitor in NY or Pittsburgh wearing my eagles gear.  

For the record eagles game days typically average 7 arrests. Steelers games average 17. And I've witnessed them behaving worse then a typical eagles game experience. 

This makes me uncomfortable because I hate being put on the side of defending indefensible behavior by morons. But I also am tired of the piling on that happens with eagles games. Even when it's not that bad one freaking thing happens to one person and it's all over the news adding to the reputation. It's a lazy easy story. I've been to games all over and I've seen no appreciable difference between eagles fans or Giants or steelers. Redskins fans so seem nicer. And I've been told the fans in the middle part of the country aren't as nasty. But what I experience at eagles games is no worse than many other east coast locations but then I have to read about how awful it is over and over. 

A lot of this crap happens all over. An eagles reporter had their car windshield smashed out one time at Giants stadium. I've had beer thrown at me. I've been cursed at.  But I don't go around trying to make all Giants or steelers fans out to be monsters. There are drunk idiots at football games that do stupid stuff. Philly is one of the worst in that regards but it's not as out of control as I hear some making it. It's not out of line from what I witness in other places or what I witnessed at Penn state and WVU football games either. 

I am with you about the east coast... all it takes is some beer and a hot head.  I am a Skins fan so I pour it on the Eagles/Giants fans.  I went to a Skins game with a group of my friends who are a Packer fans.  We didn't sit together, but they said they were treated poorly... and had their cheese heads knocked off and so on.  Hell, we had that Panther fan on a Thursday night game punch one of his own that was caught on video.

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mattie g

mattie g

Posted
Posted
3 hours ago, mappy said:

I agree completely. I wasn't purposely exposing my kid to stuff, but also wasn't "up in arms" (as some of my mom friends have been before) because she was sick with something. 

Agree with your second point too. I can understand how my post may have been taken in a way that I was saying my kid was always sick. Head colds sure, but she wasn't always sick with some kind of viral infection that knocked us all down. She's just had the usual; croup, roseola, strep throat, stomach bugs, hand/foot/mouth, and the flu, once. But I have noticed that as she has gotten older (she's about the same as your first, B? I believe) she doesn't get sick as often. When she does its strep throat or a legit bug. The common cold doesn't happen nearly as often as it use to.  

No worries - I wasn’t assuming anything based on your post. More me opining than anything.

Yup...B and K are only a month or so apart, right? My wife is a freelance editor, so she stays at home, and B didn’t go to preschool until last year. She had her own periods of getting sick prior to preschool, but it’s definitely happened more since she started preschool. olds mostly, but things like stomach bugs and other random stuff have popped up here and there, but many of them not bad enough to cause too much of an issue.

With the baby, especially given the amount of sickness that’s been floating around this season, we’re being extra careful. She has plenty of time to get sick when she’s bigger and stronger, but until then we’re doing all we can to keep her healthy! Fingers crossed, knock on wood and all that!

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