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January Banter String


George BM

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31 minutes ago, North Balti Zen said:

Oh, and show me, if that “some people just thrive on  being miserable” was aimed at me for some innocuous pushback I am out of here. Enjoy policing and shaping everyone’s thoughts to make them conform. When I thought I rather gently stepped into the long range thread to dissent last night I did so minimally, well between runs, and after several propaganda posts. And then I stepped out. Apologies if that was also not ok. I’m done.

I think it’s more just about posting in the right threads. While it does seem only positivity is allowed in the forecast discussion threads I think most people know that this winter has been subpar in the snow department. 

It would be kinda cool (or intriguing) if there was a function on the site that showed a running pbp on the side of the screen for comments (which could be toggled on/off of course lol) during the actual discussions so that we don’t have to flip thru threads to complain, sort of like how you can comment during a radio show, periscope, etc.

 

 

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51 minutes ago, North Balti Zen said:

Oh, and show me, if that “some people just thrive on  being miserable” was aimed at me for some innocuous pushback I am out of here. Enjoy policing and shaping everyone’s thoughts to make them conform. When I thought I rather gently stepped into the long range thread to dissent last night I did so minimally, well between runs, and after several propaganda posts. And then I stepped out. Apologies if that was also not ok. I’m done.

It was a general statement but if you want to take it as a personal attack on you then so be it. I am so disgusted at this point with all the childish behavior being displayed that I just don't give a Dam any more. The crap being thrown into the discussion thread was beyond ridiculous and now we have people crying about 'The Man' stifling our speech (again a general statement). Well I call BS on that. I don't know how many times I myself as well as many others have advocated for moderation with a persons posting. Let me repeat that. MODERATION!!!! And what did we get? WE saw it get even worse. So now some are surprised that people want a crack down? What even pisses me off even more is that if someone actually wanted to go on a rant there were actually topic specific threads for this very thing. But no, 'I need an audience for my temper tantrum so I am going to stay right here and crap all over this thread'. What the Hell kind of attitude is that? That is one of a self centered individual that doesn't give a flying F about anyone but themselves. 

eta: Sorry Zen, I really didn't mean to start ranting at you. I am just tired of the whole thing. This is the kind of crap that has run me off the boards several winters in the past half way through them. I just don't want this to be another one.

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1 minute ago, North Balti Zen said:

Fine. I’m out.

Edited the above but was to late. Here it is.

Sorry Zen, I really didn't mean to start ranting at you. I am just tired of the whole thing. This is the kind of crap that has run me off the boards several winters in the past half way through them. I just don't want this to be another one.

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@North Balti Zen please don't go. FWIW, I have no problem with you feeling crappy over this winter, it hasn't been that great for most. Sure there have been a couple "events" where people have gotten an inch or so, but overall its pretty rather lame. Minus my one good event in December, I'd be sitting at 4-5" total. That's awful. Last year was bottom of the toilet pathetic. 

I'm not sure what's going on as I haven't checked any threads besides the IVT one overnight, but don't go. 

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49 minutes ago, showmethesnow said:

It was a general statement but if you want to take it as a personal attack on you then so be it. I am so disgusted at this point with all the childish behavior being displayed that I just don't give a Dam any more. The crap being thrown into the discussion thread was beyond ridiculous and now we have people crying about 'The Man' stifling our speech (again a general statement). Well I call BS on that. I don't know how many times I myself as well as many others have advocated for moderation with a persons posting. Let me repeat that. MODERATION!!!! And what did we get? WE saw it get even worse. So now some are surprised that people want a crack down? What even pisses me off even more is that if someone actually wanted to go on a rant there were actually topic specific threads for this very thing. But no, 'I need an audience for my temper tantrum so I am going to stay right here and crap all over this thread'. What the Hell kind of attitude is that? That is one of a self centered individual that doesn't give a flying F about anyone but themselves. 

eta: Sorry Zen, I really didn't mean to start ranting at you. I am just tired of the whole thing. This is the kind of crap that has run me off the boards several winters in the past half way through them. I just don't want this to be another one.

So you aren't off base, but lets try and focus your ranting towards the person you mean to rant at, not NBalt. As far as I can tell he hasn't done anything wrong. 

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@mappy

@North Balti Zen

that escalated quickly.  

1. Zen i definitely  wasn't attacking you, and I said so in my post to you.  You have not been any part of the problem and why myself bob and others were getting frustrated so why are you taking it personally?  Nothing we said was about you. I thought I was clear on that but I'm sorry somehow it wasn't.  So let me say none of the rest of my points are about you I just want to clarify my position.

2. I'm not trying to be thought police.  My beef with mdecoy wasn't meant to say we have to like anything  I'm sorry it came off that way.  My rant with him was because he is obviously delusional about our climo and he complains EVERY damn year even ones where we get 20" or so or an HECS "but not enough other events"  he literally only stops whining that one unicorn year every decade where it's snowing non stop and then he acts like that's normal and every other year we get screwed.  After years of his BS I decided to unload some climo truth on him.  

3.  This year isn't over so I guess I'm just more optimistic we will get at least another 5-10" area wide to make this the typical middle 1/3 winter where our region gets between 7-18" depending on location.  If we don't get more snow then yes this year sucks.

4.  Problem is some don't realize that's middle third and act like that's a crappy winter.  That's annoying because it means they are set up to be miserable whiners 70% of the time.  

5.  I don't want the discussion thread to be all roses and blowing smoke.  I post negative analysis.  I just did last night about the Friday threat.  I said I think it's pretty dead.  But it's still analysis.  I give a reason I think something is bad.  I don't just fill up the thread with 20 posts of "don't bother it never snows here".  Attacking legit analysis and advocating we not look at guidance in the thread devoted to those things is too far and that's what was happening.  

6.  Finally we have places for that.  Nothing needed to be deleted it just belongs in the panic room and banter.  We have them specifically for this.  I love having side bars and stuff but lets do it in banter.  That's all  

 

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PSU, to clarify, on page 5 of the long range thread last night the following posts were made:

Quote

I was thinking about that today as well. It hasn't been fruitful but it's been interesting. Snow has fallen a half dozen times and the ice on the pond I skate was at least 10" thick. That counts for something. Last year was a legit disaster. This year is just stingy. On a scale of 1-10 I would give this winter a 4 if it ended today. Last year was a 2. I can't give it a 1 becuase it had 1 event. We can go virtually snowless here so 1's are reserved for that. 

Quote

I agree with you. We've had plenty to track, just not much has materialized. If you want to play the luck game, we were a bit of good luck, and 50-150 miles away from having most of this sub-forum being near climo or above (Dec 8-9, Jan 4th, Jan 16th event). Winter started early, and we had a shot to be above climo, but instead we're going for the more typical la nina climo look. I'm okay with that. We're not staring at a torcher for February as we were for last year. In fact, a lot of people in this subforum have bested last year's snow total. I honestly like how our winter may finish. Below climo, but not bad for a La Nina year. Here's to hoping we get a moderate event this February.

Quote

<afraid to say anything>

Quote

I'm sure a lot of people disagree with my rating and would give this year a 1 or a 2 but we can get some really warm winters with extended shutout periods and the local ski areas can barely stay open. This year is way above those. If I hit climo snow I automatically give it a minimum of a 6 because we hit climo well under 50% of the time. 

Quote

 

I'm in the camp that this year isn't that bad also. I posted these numbers this morning but I'll say it one more time here because I really think it's sobering and revealing.  

DCA has only had more then 14" of snow 8 times in the last 30 years. That's even less then 3 times per decade. The other 22 years or 73% of the time, DCA had between .1 and 13.8". The mean of those 22 years was 7.8". 

So 2-3 times a decade we get lucky and it snows easy. The other 73% of the time (the majority or NORMAL) DC averages 8". That's a normal winter. People need to stop thinking the 27% are normal and expecting that every year and complaining the 73% of the time we get a regular winter. Basically once you accept this isn't one of the lucky minority winters the bar should be 8". Above that puts D.C. into top half of winter territory as sad as that is. 

Looking at where we are and how the pattern looks for a solid 4 weeks ok guidance there is no reason to think we can't get there.

Of course the numbers are a bit better for IAD and BWI.   But the general idea is the same.  Ill do the numbers for those locations too because I'm curious myself and post in banter later. 

 

Quote

Yeah, I’m at a 4 for winter here — I’m at about 20% of my climo for the year.  But its been fun tracking and “radar hallucinating” hoping for some last minute 50 minute mile shifts to get in the game on the storms just missing to our S and E.  I can’t complain about lack of snow anymore now that we have a house in McHenry - the week between Christmas and New Years was pretty awesome....15” or so and single digit highs.  This winter out there is night and day compared to last year too.

Quote

 

<Just because it can be worse doesn’t mean this hasn’t been a crap winter so far>

<stepping back out now so as not to violate the official it’s not so bad views>

 

ZERO of those posts were analysis. Two of them were mine responding to what is now a dominant viewpoint - and RESPONDING where others had re-started a conversation during a slow time between model runs. You pulled the last one from me and further expounded over here. I responded in here, and then showme pretty much called me out specifically for being one of the ones ruining this place.

Apparently the views that say it has been an okay winter so far are perfectly okay for the long range thread, even devoid of any analysis, but gently expressing an opposing viewpoint in that thread literally in response is cluttering it up and has to be taken elsewhere.

That's my issue with it.

My take? It's all fine there. That's what this board always kinda was. But it pretty much blows that it's okay for one view to be allowed on the long range threads but a dissenting view to be shouted down.

For those that want it militant in the long range threads, well, look what happened with the Philly crew took their ball and went home. I sure don't want that. If the best of you are ready to leave or not post, then that's not okay. But otherwise, if there are people that are crossing the line, the mods can five post them. Otherwise, it becomes a thought police situation.

Peace.

---Aaron

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19 minutes ago, smokeybandit said:

Was Ji happy in Feb 2010?

I remember it this way.  He enjoyed the first blizzard.  Then he was Ji again quickly worrying about how Leesburg would get skipped by the second storm and give Philly snow.  The morning of the second storm he was pretty down because the radar looked like crap (and it did), and then it blew up right over his house and he was medicated again.  In the end though, I think he was (and still is) disappointed in the second storm.

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[mention=115]mappy[/mention]
[mention=1286]North Balti Zen[/mention]
that escalated quickly.  
1. Zen i definitely  wasn't attacking you, and I said so in my post to you.  You have not been any part of the problem and why myself bob and others were getting frustrated so why are you taking it personally?  Nothing we said was about you. I thought I was clear on that but I'm sorry somehow it wasn't.  So let me say none of the rest of my points are about you I just want to clarify my position.
2. I'm not trying to be thought police.  My beef with mdecoy wasn't meant to say we have to like anything  I'm sorry it came off that way.  My rant with him was because he is obviously delusional about our climo and he complains EVERY damn year even ones where we get 20" or so or an HECS "but not enough other events"  he literally only stops whining that one unicorn year every decade where it's snowing non stop and then he acts like that's normal and every other year we get screwed.  After years of his BS I decided to unload some climo truth on him.  
3.  This year isn't over so I guess I'm just more optimistic we will get at least another 5-10" area wide to make this the typical middle 1/3 winter where our region gets between 7-18" depending on location.  If we don't get more snow then yes this year sucks.
4.  Problem is some don't realize that's middle third and act like that's a crappy winter.  That's annoying because it means they are set up to be miserable whiners 70% of the time.  
5.  I don't want the discussion thread to be all roses and blowing smoke.  I post negative analysis.  I just did last night about the Friday threat.  I said I think it's pretty dead.  But it's still analysis.  I give a reason I think something is bad.  I don't just fill up the thread with 20 posts of "don't bother it never snows here".  Attacking legit analysis and advocating we not look at guidance in the thread devoted to those things is too far and that's what was happening.  
6.  Finally we have places for that.  Nothing needed to be deleted it just belongs in the panic room and banter.  We have them specifically for this.  I love having side bars and stuff but lets do it in banter.  That's all  
 
We've all suggested this over the years and it usually works.....at least has for me. Set your seasonal and individual storm expectations low.....almost at nothing. It takes practice but it works. And when you end up with a coating on the ground you revel in it, soak it up. Dont ever be greedy with the Snow Gods.......they will destroy you and make your life miserable.
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21 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said:
1 hour ago, psuhoffman said:
[mention=115]mappy[/mention]
[mention=1286]North Balti Zen[/mention]
that escalated quickly.  
1. Zen i definitely  wasn't attacking you, and I said so in my post to you.  You have not been any part of the problem and why myself bob and others were getting frustrated so why are you taking it personally?  Nothing we said was about you. I thought I was clear on that but I'm sorry somehow it wasn't.  So let me say none of the rest of my points are about you I just want to clarify my position.
2. I'm not trying to be thought police.  My beef with mdecoy wasn't meant to say we have to like anything  I'm sorry it came off that way.  My rant with him was because he is obviously delusional about our climo and he complains EVERY damn year even ones where we get 20" or so or an HECS "but not enough other events"  he literally only stops whining that one unicorn year every decade where it's snowing non stop and then he acts like that's normal and every other year we get screwed.  After years of his BS I decided to unload some climo truth on him.  
3.  This year isn't over so I guess I'm just more optimistic we will get at least another 5-10" area wide to make this the typical middle 1/3 winter where our region gets between 7-18" depending on location.  If we don't get more snow then yes this year sucks.
4.  Problem is some don't realize that's middle third and act like that's a crappy winter.  That's annoying because it means they are set up to be miserable whiners 70% of the time.  
5.  I don't want the discussion thread to be all roses and blowing smoke.  I post negative analysis.  I just did last night about the Friday threat.  I said I think it's pretty dead.  But it's still analysis.  I give a reason I think something is bad.  I don't just fill up the thread with 20 posts of "don't bother it never snows here".  Attacking legit analysis and advocating we not look at guidance in the thread devoted to those things is too far and that's what was happening.  
6.  Finally we have places for that.  Nothing needed to be deleted it just belongs in the panic room and banter.  We have them specifically for this.  I love having side bars and stuff but lets do it in banter.  That's all  
 

We've all suggested this over the years and it usually works.....at least has for me. Set your seasonal and individual storm expectations low.....almost at nothing. It takes practice but it works. And when you end up with a coating on the ground you revel in it, soak it up. Dont ever be greedy with the Snow Gods.......they will destroy you and make your life miserable.

Agree. I set my 'standard' at double digits. In my location, that SHOULD be easily achieved, average is 26-27 inches on a 30 year rotation. Last year was 2nd worst ever since I started keeping records in 1979 at 6.4 inches and this year I am currently sitting at 3.1 inches......

Granted we still have 2 plus months to go, but the past 15 months has NOT been kind to snow lovers. But to get/keep that average.....each year you pull an great 60-80 inch winter out of the hat a trashy one or two has to come along to pull it back.

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36 minutes ago, North Balti Zen said:

PSU, to clarify, on page 5 of the long range thread last night the following posts were made:

ZERO of those posts were analysis. Two of them were mine responding to what is now a dominant viewpoint - and RESPONDING where others had re-started a conversation during a slow time between model runs. You pulled the last one from me and further expounded over here. I responded in here, and then showme pretty much called me out specifically for being one of the ones ruining this place.

Apparently the views that say it has been an okay winter so far are perfectly okay for the long range thread, even devoid of any analysis, but gently expressing an opposing viewpoint in that thread literally in response is cluttering it up and has to be taken elsewhere.

That's my issue with it.

My take? It's all fine there. That's what this board always kinda was. But it pretty much blows that it's okay for one view to be allowed on the long range threads but a dissenting view to be shouted down.

For those that want it militant in the long range threads, well, look what happened with the Philly crew took their ball and went home. I sure don't want that. If the best of you are ready to leave or not post, then that's not okay. But otherwise, if there are people that are crossing the line, the mods can five post them. Otherwise, it becomes a thought police situation.

Peace.

---Aaron

You have a legit point. All I can do is give you my opinion on this.  I've had no problem with anything you have said. That's first. I also didn't think showme was directing at you. But he did reply to something I said in reply to you so I see how that was taken that way. But I can't speak for him that's just my take but I have no issue with you. 

The rest of this is complicated and uncomfortable. No one in that exchange came at you. You have the right to express displeasure and you were doing that in a perfectly fine way. Some others were not. Did those posts probably belong in banter yea and that's why I replied the second time here. But that's not because I had a problem with it there. This is where it gets messy. I was always fine with the banter there when it was within reason. Like you said during down times and in an adult manner. Not nasty childish crap. The convo you posted was what makes this forum great and not the stuff anyone had issue with.

But a few people were going too far and filling up the thread with non stop garbage and worse it became a thing to go into the long range thread and complain about long range analysis. Telling us we're wasting our time and don't bother. If we post good news it gets "it won't happen" and if we post bad it's "we told you so". 

Unfortunately the lax rules and moderation was being taken advantage of by a few miserable posters that just wanted to have a melt down and make everyone else as jades as them. And it was only a handful of people but they were making the thread a hot mess. 

I hate censorship and it's not a clear line kind of thing. A few jokes and a complaint when it's warranted is ok to me. Respectful side conversations are ok to me. But somewhere we went way over that line and it became a barrage of whining and worse attacks on those that want to analyze and haven't given up hope. 

I thought the best answer was to just move all the "other stuff" to either banter or panic. That way everyone can say whatever they want without the long range thread becoming a mess. But I'd rather people just use some self control and we can have some side stuff in there without it going too far. 

 

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so, in the future, can we just call people out directly for their bad posting instead of making sweeping generalizations that others may take offense to? i feel like that may have limited this giant misunderstanding between a few people. 

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1 minute ago, mappy said:

so, in the future, can we just call people out directly for their bad posting instead of making sweeping generalizations that others may take offense to? i feel like that may have limited this giant misunderstanding between a few people. 

and do it here only please

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32 minutes ago, nw baltimore wx said:

I remember it this way.  He enjoyed the first blizzard.  Then he was Ji again quickly worrying about how Leesburg would get skipped by the second storm and give Philly snow.  The morning of the second storm he was pretty down because the radar looked like crap (and it did), and then it blew up right over his house and he was medicated again.  In the end though, I think he was (and still is) disappointed in the second storm.

Here is how I recall JI that year. He complained when the first coastal early December only gave him 3" and called that winter a joke. 

In January he was canceling winter and calling it a huge disappointment. 

He had an epic meltdown before the 2nd feb storm developed right over him. Then he complained after that he only got like 12" when MD got 20". 

He complained when the late feb storm missed.

He declared the winter was somewhat ruined when the early march threat fell apart and that it ended up disappointing again. 

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