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jburns

2018 Banter Thread

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8 hours ago, YetAnotherRDUGuy said:

Is RAH the only NWS office that issues a WWA for black ice?

Every office in eastern region issue WWYs for black ice. It depends on coverage and impact expected. If impact is localized, an SPS is issued instead.  

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15 hours ago, frazdaddy said:

Not sure , but the Benz saved my hind parts this am on the way in. I hit a patch on US1 around Apex I never saw coming. The car took over and ESP/ABS did it's thing all in a span of micro seconds. It' was awesome. 

Yea, I hit a couple of spots myself on the commute in this morning. Black ice threat seems legit this go around.

15 hours ago, isohume said:

Every office in eastern region issue WWYs for black ice. It depends on coverage and impact expected. If impact is localized, an SPS is issued instead.  

Thanks for clarifying. I've just noticed over the years RAH tends to issue WWA's after an event for black ice, but didn't see the neighboring offices issuing the same product. I'm always interested in the the differences between offices, and just wondered if RAH was by itself on this. Now I know they aren't..completely.

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Saw a new term in the RAH disco this morning. Still trying to figure out what it means.

This strong upper level jet
support working with PWATs around 1.5" (or near record values
for this time of year) will support multiple rounds of
precipitation. Looking at forecast soundings also shows a
corfidi vector with a weak magnitude. This would support a
possible training scenario.

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@Solak, outta curiosity, I had to, I've never heard the "term" mentioned before either.. So, I looked it up..  

corfidi vector

 

A procedure for operationally predicting the movement of the meso-beta scale convective elements responsible for the heavy rain in mesoscale convective complexes is presented. The procedure is based on the well known concepts that the motion of convective systems can be considered as the sum of an advective component, given by the mean motion of the cells comprising the system, and a propagation component, defined by the rate and location of new cell formation relative to existing cells. These concepts and the forecast procedure are examined using 103 mesoscale convective systems, 99 of which are mesoscale convective complexes.

https://www.spc.noaa.gov/publications/corfidi/mccthes.htm

Corfidi Vector

The "Corfidi Upshear" vector is an estimate of net storm motion for a "backbuilding" MCS, where the low-level storm inflow is subtracted from the mean wind. The "Corfidi Downshear" vector is an estimate of net storm motion for a "forward propagating" MCS where the low-level storm inflow is added to the mean wind.

https://www.weather.gov/grb/meso_help

 

So I "assume", by the RAH Disco means, "Multiple" Training rainfall/Precipitation "events" due to interaction of MESO convective complex (storm(s)) interacting with the Upper Level Jet influence? Just My non-educated guess...

 

Oh NOW, I see, Reading Comprehension  problems on My behalf this afternoon, ( Had a Late/morning ALL nighter, still on My first Cup O' Joe)I see Why you underlined the Upper Level thing.. 

 

Edit too add, everything I've read has to do with a Low Level Jet, I'm Missing something, :huh: here...??  Hence yours (and our confusion?) Is it a Typo? 

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Thanks - great info! I know I've seen "multiple rounds of precipitation" in discussions before. I guess this shows one of the ways they arrive at that conclusion. Weather is fascinating!

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We both learned something.. I've "always" wondered what causes Storms to "back-build"  or "training",, in some cases,, I never took the time to investigate.. 

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AFter thinking about this for a few days. The sentence "Along and north of I85" is like fingers on a chalk board. In Southern to western Meck the line was ridiculous. Office 1: Jack Squat off Highway 51 in Charlotte. Office #2 in Downtown 2 inches. Home in Steele Creek 2 inches. WEST of there... 4-8 

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AFter thinking about this for a few days. The sentence "Along and north of I85" is like fingers on a chalk board. In Southern to western Meck the line was ridiculous. Office 1: Jack Squat off Highway 51 in Charlotte. Office #2 in Downtown 2 inches. Home in Steele Creek 2 inches. WEST of there... 4-8 



Try living in Union County, just about 3 miles in from Meck. We got a mere dusting and that was gone the next morning. I will make sure that this is my last winter spent here. Wayyy too much disappointment.


.

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6 hours ago, CLTwx said:

AFter thinking about this for a few days. The sentence "Along and north of I85" is like fingers on a chalk board. In Southern to western Meck the line was ridiculous. Office 1: Jack Squat off Highway 51 in Charlotte. Office #2 in Downtown 2 inches. Home in Steele Creek 2 inches. WEST of there... 4-8 

If you live north of 85,

It is so good to be alive.

But if you happen to live below,

You'll never see a flake of snow.

(and I don't care how many squirrels, woolly worms, birds, fogs in August, or any other damn thing. 85 rules.)

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1 hour ago, jburns said:

If you live north of 85,

It is so good to be alive.

But if you happen to live below,

You'll never see a flake of snow.

(and I don't care how many squirrels, woolly worms, birds, fogs in August, or any other damn thing. 85 rules.)

We need to remember this next year. Forget NAO, PNA, EPO, Nino/Nina, MJO, Solar activity, Almanacs, etc,etc,etc. None of that matters a pinch. If your'e North of 85 you'll see some; if you ain't you won't! 

:snowing: = North of 85

:underthewx: = South of 85

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5 minutes ago, Queencitywx said:

Did @TARHEELPROGRAMMER88 Ever show up to admit their bust? I mean I had 10.5” of snow and five days of snow cover over here

lol I was talking about central NC for the most part. The western part of the state is typically cold enough for something. Plenty of moisture and living in the western part of NC in winter time is a recipe for a good winter storm. It is central NC and eastern NC that struggles.

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2 hours ago, TARHEELPROGRAMMER88 said:

lol I was talking about central NC for the most part. The western part of the state is typically cold enough for something. Plenty of moisture and living in the western part of NC in winter time is a recipe for a good winter storm. It is central NC and eastern NC that struggles.

I'm in the eastern piedmont and got 12". That's about as good a storm you can ask for in early December. 

Eric Webber on Twitter has a good map of the totals for the storm (just Google Eric Webber twitter). 

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lol I was talking about central NC for the most part. The western part of the state is typically cold enough for something. Plenty of moisture and living in the western part of NC in winter time is a recipe for a good winter storm. It is central NC and eastern NC that struggles.
Since when is Durham not in central NC? I would never consider that city a part of western NC.

Sent from my Alcatel 6055U using Tapatalk

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6 hours ago, TARHEELPROGRAMMER88 said:

lol I was talking about central NC for the most part. The western part of the state is typically cold enough for something. Plenty of moisture and living in the western part of NC in winter time is a recipe for a good winter storm. It is central NC and eastern NC that struggles.

Dude, just say it was more than you expected and let it go.

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8 hours ago, TARHEELPROGRAMMER88 said:

lol I was talking about central NC for the most part. The western part of the state is typically cold enough for something. Plenty of moisture and living in the western part of NC in winter time is a recipe for a good winter storm. It is central NC and eastern NC that struggles.

Moving Goal posts are We? (Or highway markers)??

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2 hours ago, jburns said:

Dude, just say it was more than you expected and let it go.

It wasn't. My issue was with central NC which is a good amount of the posters here. If you look at my post about Asheville to SW VA being the jackpot you would see I was right. 

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4 hours ago, calculus1 said:

Since when is Durham not in central NC? I would never consider that city a part of western NC.

Sent from my Alcatel 6055U using Tapatalk
 

Hit and miss in Central NC. Big flop in Raleigh,  South. I nailed jackpot area though. Hard to predict NC storms though. Hurricanes and winter storms seem to do crazy things here. 

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22 hours ago, TARHEELPROGRAMMER88 said:

Hit and miss in Central NC. Big flop in Raleigh,  South. I nailed jackpot area though. Hard to predict NC storms though. Hurricanes and winter storms seem to do crazy things here. 

RAHDecember9thSnowfall_FINAL.thumb.png.0fe9954856b011977c67ab2193d01be9.png

I don't know man. Some areas inside the beltline got over 6''.  I think RDU got 7''. ( I can't figure out if they got 7 or 6.5 from looking at this map) Perhaps what you meant to say was "Big flop in Southern Wake and all areas South of there". That is what you really meant right?? B)

On another note, you know who really busted on this event? Look at that weird 3'' minimum in central Randolph, while just a few miles north near Randleman got 8.5 . God must really hate Asheboro.

EDIT: RDU airport got 8.9'' from this storm.

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18 minutes ago, Cold Rain said:

Merry Christmas, folks!  May God bless you and your families today and throughout the new year!

Get some sleep! Gonna be some sleepless nights track.......

I mean looking for 384 hour pattern changes!  Best winter ever ! 09/10 redux! :(

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