25thamendmentfan Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 Thank you for your contribution Roger. Your predictions defy current model consensus, but if your predictions are remotely close to verifying please come back and we'll give you trump like bragging rights. And if you bust, we'll call Mueller. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MarkO Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 Wow, just wow on the NAM bomb. Looks to be just inside the BM at hr 39. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ncforecaster89 Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 1 hour ago, Roger Smith said: Posted this on Mid-Atl first, but of general interest so ... This is about to explode, current analysis would suggest main low is forming southeast of Miami FL and arctic wave is (can't believe I am typing this) in the northeast Gulf of Mexico, snow is about to break out between TLH and GNV. Upper support is massing over AL-wGA, and it's probably going to run right up the coast to Hatteras, try to hang a left, then lurch east-north-east, but not in time to spoil your (Mid-Atl) potential snowfall event. First call 1-3" DCA-IAD 3-5" BWI 8-15" Delmarva 14-22" se VA 2-5" e PA and most of NJ 4-7" NYC 8-15" w LI to w/c CT to w MA 15-30" e LI, most of s NE, VT-NH 20-40" Maine, NB 10-15" w NS (my track is based on a blend of Euro, NAM and RGEM and I expect a central pressure of 953 mbs just south of 40/70) 80 mph gusts over much of se MA will lead to considerable damage and storm surges Heavier snow than most are expecting over VT and upstate NY as Lakes low is pulled into circulation and there may be heavy lake effect from Lake Champlain for BTV I also suspect some wild variations locally due to deformation band, subsidence effects, but think most will be inside the 12 to 35 inch outcome spectrum, outer Cape and islands 5-12" due to some mixing Wicked ! (Not really a first call for most of the above, this is what I was thinking 3-4 days ago) Still celebrating the New Year, Roger, with left-over egg nog from Christmas? Seriously, truly love your enthusiasm and hope you're right! Still time to trend a little further W, but don't anticipate a track that would bring a widespread 12-35" or that the progressive nature of the steering will allow amounts towards the high-end of those figures. Given this is the atmospheric sciences, which are inherently complex and inexact, I also wouldn't be surprised if it over-performs relative to the current "expected" snowfall maps produced by Tauton. One could even argue this setup has a higher than normal bust-potential, either side of forecast amounts. We shall see! EDIT: Need to clarify that it's reasonable to expect SNE to possibly get a widespread 12-15" snowfall, with continued west trends, but don't anticipate a widespread 20-35" event. Hoping I'm incorrect! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowHole413 Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 At hour 39, 6z nam is west of 0z. Huge hit for sne and shifted heavy precip west Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 The 06z Nam is way west of 0z, Going to be some mixing into SE MA , Mid coast and DE Maine. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tim123 Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 Still think this goes into se mass ultimatly Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 NAM destroys all of SNE.. lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The 4 Seasons Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 Loving the 6Z NAM, what a giagantic leap west, holy sh*t Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 1 minute ago, tim123 said: Still think this goes into se mass ultimatly Wow, what a coincidence, you live in NY Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 1 minute ago, The 4 Seasons said: Loving the 6Z NAM, what a giagantic leap west, holy sh*t There's just no way. Only model showing anything like it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Roger Smith Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 Just now, 25thamendmentfan said: Thank you for your contribution Roger. Your predictions defy current model consensus, but if your predictions are remotely close to verifying please come back and we'll give you trump like bragging rights. And if you bust, we'll call Mueller. I don't tweet, that's for birds. There will certainly be big variations in a fast-moving explosive storm like this, but there will be huge snowfall maxima too with this combination of intense cold, warm ocean and explosive deepening. Some place around Augusta to Bangor maybe could get the max, and it may be hard to measure with all the drifting that's likely, but 3-4 feet would not surprise me. Northern NB gets that on occasion too. They say that the same guy who named Greenland named the Baie de Chaleur. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MarkO Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 NAM drops 2" qpf on the Tolland Massif. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The 4 Seasons Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 1 minute ago, sbos_wx said: There's just no way. Only model showing anything like it Only model that came out in the 6Z suite so far also...thinking its probably overdone but good to see it going this way and not the other tbh. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 That’s a general 14-20” for all that stay snow back to the MA border. Lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
25thamendmentfan Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 Snow lovers in Harwich, ma won't be very happy if this new nam represents a trend. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 The SREFs were basically unchanged. I’m gonna take that run with a grain of salt for now. The RGEM has been more consistent than the NAM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 2 minutes ago, dryslot said: That’s a general 14-20” for all that stay snow back to the MA border. Lol Hard toss unless rgem/gfs come in amped Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 Probably going to go down as one of the all-time horrible nam runs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheCloser24 Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 Wow! 6z NAM has a widespread 1 to 2 ft of snow across New England. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ncforecaster89 Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 2 minutes ago, The 4 Seasons said: Only model that came out in the 6Z suite so far also...thinking its probably overdone but good to see it going this way and not the other tbh. Completely agree. But, given I'm likely heading to Scituate in hopes of blizzard conditions on the coast, must admit I'm not too fond of the mixing prospect on the south shore with that run. Good news for more W areas, though! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 This may have happened because the surface low has more or less formed now off FL and the NAM may have made an adjustment because of that. It doesn’t mean it’s the right one though. I’m not sure how much help the 06Z RGEM will be as I find the off hour RGEM runs aren’t as good as the off hour GFS/NAM. I’m not sure they get the same data ingested. We’ve come a long way the last 10-15 years on the US models for 06-18z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 6 minutes ago, sbos_wx said: Hard toss unless rgem/gfs come in amped That SLP tracked just east of BRB, That goes back to about 4 days or so when some of the models had it hooking there, But the jump to the east, Didn’t happen so this stayed well to the west and that’s what screws some of the SE areas and the coast but also gets snow well back west too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 3 minutes ago, SnowGoose69 said: This may have happened because the surface low has more or less formed now off FL and the NAM may have made an adjustment because of that. It doesn’t mean it’s the right one though. I’m not sure how much help the 06Z RGEM will be as I find the off hour RGEM runs aren’t as good as the off hour GFS/NAM. I’m not sure they get the same data ingested. We’ve come a long way the last 10-15 years on the US models for 06-18z That was quite a drastic shift west at this lead, Guess we wait for the rest of the 06z models, But that could be to extreme. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 949mb off the Maine coast, lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ncforecaster89 Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 During my own short time (since 3/26/14) tracking NE coastals, it appears that we get these W trends with the NAM & GFS in this time frame on such intense systems. However, they generally verify more E/wd during now-casting. Am I wrong in this recollection? On a personal note, my experience was derived forecasting and tracking SE coastals. It's a different beast forecasting up here! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
25thamendmentfan Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 6 minutes ago, ncforecaster89 said: Completely agree. But, given I'm likely heading to Scituate in hopes of blizzard conditions on the coast, must admit I'm not too fond of the mixing prospect on the south shore with that run. Good news for more W areas, though! If this keeps trending west you won't want to be in scituate and 6 inches of slop. Consider 35 miles farther north along the north shore seawalls in places like marblehead. Show us video of the crashing waves. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 3 minutes ago, ncforecaster89 said: During my own short time (since 3/26/14) tracking NE coastals, it appears that we get these W trends with the NAM & GFS in this time frame on such intense systems. However, they generally verify more E/wd during now-casting. Am I wrong in this recollection? On a personal note, my experience was derived forecasting and tracking SE coastals. It's a different beast forecasting up here! Tough to say actually, Don’t think we have seen one this strong for a winter cyclone up here, We are getting inside a 24 hr window, So even if it tics SE in the next 12 hrs that’s a regional bomb. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 1 minute ago, ncforecaster89 said: During my own short time (since 3/26/14) tracking NE coastals, it appears that we get these W trends with the NAM & GFS in this time frame on such intense systems. However, they generally verify more E/wd during now-casting. Am I wrong in this recollection? On a personal note, my experience was derived forecasting and tracking SE coastals. It's a different beast forecasting up here! If the trend stops around 18-24 out then yes. We do often see this happen for awhile between 24-48 then it stops. But if you keep seeing ticks one way or the other on guidance at 12-18 hours before the event I find the event often continues to verify real time further west/east as its unfolding. I often will hedge a forecast more west or east than the models if there has been a continued non stop shift inside 24 hours on the track Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Roger Smith Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 952 mbs about 50 miles east of PWM -- coastal frontogenesis of epic proportions -- sure it's going to rotate 40-45 F air over the Cape and spoil their party but otherwise, 5" an hour potential with thundersnow in that set-up. You have to admit, these 950 type solutions have shown up on just about every model at some point, and when you look at the developing dynamics, why not? It looks like it wants to phase around 37 to 39N to me, and as it tries to do the 1978 superstorm over-rotation it will just run into the CAD that has no time to be removed, there is only one solution, thundersnow. Something like this is going to happen. We won't know exactly what until it happens. I sat through Jan 26 78 in a forecast office and saw the data coming in. Prepare to be riveted. These types of storms have an explosive life cycle, even the strong storms of recent years at least took a reasonable amount of time to develop and deliver. Wham bam thank you NAM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
25thamendmentfan Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 March 2017 had a relentless west trend that never reversed itself. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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