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Baroclinic Zone

Jan 4-6 Coastal Bomb

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35 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Have a hunch the EURO may tick east a hair tonight. 

That's my natural gut feeling.

Considering the way NAM and GFS have been funky with 5h, I have no idea.

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InstantWeatherMaps, Interesting, these models say the jacks are Worcester to Springfield and the main model suite so far says Worcester to Boston is the jack.  Which one is correct? We'll find out.

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4 minutes ago, InstantWeatherMaps said:

Oh, also GEFS clowns: QX1qdfm.gif

That GEFS mean must be reflecting a lot of taint for E MA areas, since the total qpf for those areas is 1-1.25".  Yet we only get 6-7 inches of snow from that.  The 42 hour depiction shows much of that area above freezing at the surface.  I'm not buying this GEFS.  Either that, or these clown maps are worse than I thought.

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3 hours ago, CoastalWx said:

They were getting OES combined with CF stuff for awhile in addition to synoptic stuff. Very high ratio too. BOX radar went out, but WCVB kept showing some pretty heavy bands. I never heard of the measuring every hour, but I know what I had and it was a solid 2'. Have some nice pics too. I agree the 78 reference is over the top, but it was a solid 2' storm in BOS.

For the record, you could measure every hour but you only get to report the highest amount in the 6 hour window. :weenie:

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The GEFS's are SO far west, I get 12" in none of them, but half of them have 12"....... to my NW.  While the main scare here for days has been IS this going to come West enough.  Why are models so vaied THIS close in?  Jeez.  Government: PLEASE put more money in weather models.  Sign, everyone.  

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1 minute ago, TheSnowman said:

The GEFS's are SO far west, I get 12" in none of them, but half of them have 12"....... to my NW.  While the main scare here for days has been IS this going to come West enough.  Why are models so vaied THIS close in?  Jeez.  Government: PLEASE put more money in weather models.  Sign, everyone.  

Look at my first call map...no suprise.

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1 minute ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Look at my first call map...no suprise.

Ya man.....you were calling west all along right?  Loved your writeup and map.....we snow

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3 minutes ago, ice1972 said:

Ya man.....you were calling west all along right?  Loved your writeup and map.....we snow

Need a lot more support then just the gefs and the 3k NAM..

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Just now, Sn0waddict said:

Need a lot more support then just he gefs and the 3k NAM..

I don't disagree but I also feel like that scenario hasn't been ruled out either......granted I'm not as good as most on here at reading and interpreting the maps......we wait

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2 minutes ago, Sn0waddict said:

Need a lot more support then just the gefs and the 3k NAM..

Ray has provided more than enough support than just that, if you're speaking about western portions of SNE 

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For what it's worth, the 12z Euro is going to be too far east in the initialization of the surface low.

WPC and obs suggest just south of the Keys right now. The Euro was over Eleuthera. The GFS seemed too far north up for the Florida coast.

Oddly enough, both models end up catching each other and being almost exactly the same position south of New England.

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2 minutes ago, Sn0waddict said:

Need a lot more support then just he gefs and the 3k NAM..

We're also within 24 hours.......that has to mean something....

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22 minutes ago, Greg said:

InstantWeatherMaps, Interesting, these models say the jacks are Worcester to Springfield and the main model suite so far says Worcester to Boston is the jack.  Which one is correct? We'll find out.

Hopefully Springfield to Boston jacks

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1 minute ago, ice1972 said:

We're also within 24 hours.......that has to mean something....

True. The gefs gave me some optimism but I feel like I’ve had that same feeling 5 times already with this storm just to be let done. I have to imagine we will finally have some clarity by 12z tomorrow.

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1 minute ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I noticed BOX added the mention of damage to trees and power lines off the coast and back to ORH CO

:weenie:

But actually it may be automatically added wording with the HazSimp formatter based on the wind speeds in their forecast.

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4 minutes ago, OceanStWx said:

For what it's worth, the 12z Euro is going to be too far east in the initialization of the surface low.

WPC and obs suggest just south of the Keys right now. The Euro was over Eleuthera. The GFS seemed too far north up for the Florida coast.

Oddly enough, both models end up catching each other and being almost exactly the same position south of New England.

This low is forming s of the keys? Jesus...got moisture?

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Just now, 40/70 Benchmark said:

This low is forming s of the keys? Jesus...got mousture?

The farther west we can keep it now the better.

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Just now, sbos_wx said:

Through 12 hours, we are pretty similar to 12z. Obviously, run has barely started.

Well, wouldn't that imply poor initialization?

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Seems like the northern stream trough on the ECMWF from 12z-00z is not as strong or deep. May not act as much as a kicker and let the southern mess come north more more easily without the boot east?

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Euro looks like it may go slightly east....but it's not doing the weird micro-cane thing that 12z did, so we will see by the time it reaches out latitude, It could make up some ground late since 12z took a pretty decent turn right at the last second.

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