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Jan 4-6 Coastal Bomb


Baroclinic Zone

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12 minutes ago, Hoth said:

Given GFS' appalling record with east coast cyclogenesis, I give it very little weight. Didn't it have Feb '13 as a disjointed wave day-of?

Its been bad, So if its east, That's a good place for it with its known bias, The only model that counts will have to wait to be viewed next year..........:lol:

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59 minutes ago, dryslot said:

Its been bad, So if its east, That's a good place for it with its known bias, The only model that counts will have to wait to be viewed next year..........:lol:

GFS had the Christmas storm Suppressed about 3-4 days before it's onset, and then caved with the Euro. Euro usually wins in these East or West situations. Only time I can remember it winning was with the late March 2016 event, but that's about it. 

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28 minutes ago, Baroclinic Zone said:

Yeah, the 18z GEFS are not what you want to see for a major storm.  Well E of the 12z run.  Lot more spread though so may be an issue of timing.

 

19 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

Gefs improved. The clustering got tighter but there are more ‘western’ solutions which stretch the mean.

Interesting differences of opinion.  Funny thing is its understandable why both of you have that opinion.

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3 minutes ago, powderfreak said:

 

Interesting differences of opinion.  Funny thing is its understandable why both of you have that opinion.

I think the slower solutions would end up being more west, would allow more time for the pv lobe to phase in. But just looking at the mean at h5, it doesnt seem like an improvement...so I get his take. 

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