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Baroclinic Zone

Jan 4-6 Coastal Bomb

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6 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

Hm.

It may end up right ... but the overwhelming characteristic during the evolution of this thing, in the models so far, has been that come hell or high water, they.  just. won't. phase.

This particular run really just goes out of it's way to avoid doing so.. At hour 72 hours ... the identifiable northern and southern wave components of the entire trough space ... really are situated almost ideally in space and time to really buckle up and unify just east of the Del Marva. But that doesn't happen, and hour 96 ... the southern component has been foisted well east of the coast and still remains an identifiable separate entity altogether.  

I'm not sure why the physics can't phase this thing... but I really suspect that it's related to the same velocity saturation in the flow.  I think it really takes time for a purer subsume phase like the 72 hour argues is about to happen, but if the x and/or y coordinates are moving to fast (or slow) with respect to one another, they two will bi-pass. 

A metaphor is liken to orbital velocity?  Around Earth it is roughly 17.5 K /hr... anything beyond that velocity, an orbiting body will accelerate away and escape the gravity well.  Anything less, ...it's orbit decays and falls in...  So completing the metaphor, this fast velocity plaguing aspect to the entire circulation is like 20 k/hr velocity and instead of the waves coalescing there... the southern stream rockets passed and escapes. 

Anyway, folks have been mentioning that despite the outward track guidance, that there is enough forcing to get significant impact back over eastern NE...  The models want us to believe that there is no coastal storm at all really.. .That's half way to England ...  euphemistically speaking...  It just snows because of a different source of lift.  

So be it... I'm tired of this thing at this point. I really don't like getting into the head game of model to model stuff... Because it has a funny way of "seemingly being on purpose" as it offers plausibilities than poetically slams the door in one's face as soon as they bother to look. Heh.  funny.   Couple-a more of these and I'll be lookin forward to that early La Nina spring -

I think the  thing so far as depicted is just a hot mess

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5 minutes ago, STILL N OF PIKE said:

Thanks for the post.

Bob mentioned the trough orientation but ummm ya i want to know why its not

Phasing.

Ryan mentioned Southern stream was sort of separate and tremendous UpperLevels forcing was responsible.

What do we need for a phase and capture. Is the lead southern energy ahead of the main S. Stream shortwave Messing the phase up?

 

Don't show frustration over a non phase...you'll get killed lol

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23 minutes ago, Hazey said:

Mod question. Can we post a Maue image that he has posted on twitter or that no go? He has a great euro simulated satellite image of the storm.

Apparently he's fine with them on social media so I'm changing my mind on this. Feel free to post the images.

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I still won't put much weight on any of these solutions until the responsible s/w's leave the data sparse region. Hard to believe the models can accurately interpolate what's going on up there. The look at H5 down here is probably pretty well baked in, but the intensity of the shortwaves, perhaps the northern one especially, is going to take some time. Just a fuzzy approximation for now. Anyway, the look is not bad, and I expect these funny elongated and double barreled solutions will snap into a more coherent frame by 0z tomorrow. 

Also, lol at James suggesting western areas are trying to steal his snow. He has made out a like a bandit relative to climo over the last decade. Some regression depression has to happen eventually (though I'm not sure this will fit the bill).

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28 minutes ago, STILL N OF PIKE said:

Thanks for the post.

Bob mentioned the trough orientation but ummm ya i want to know why its not

Phasing.

Ryan mentioned Southern stream was sort of separate and Instead tremendous UpperLevels forcing was responsible For our snow.

What do we need for a phase and capture. Is the lead southern energy ahead of the main S. Stream shortwave Messing the phase up?

 

It takes time for phasing, ... It probably can be shown mathematically, but if the wave is moving (southern stream) is too fast, it just bi passes northern stream.  

It might be that it could still do so ... just not be seen until much shorter terms, because the margins for error are pretty small. Also, if the norther stream is sampled stronger going forward, it may effectively "tip" the flow more S-N oriented and that would bring the ejecting/failed southern stream wave more N than NE... This latter correction is where I would put your hope (for lack of better word) as a higher impact enthusiast, because the speed saturation/too fast aspect is not likely going away, and that would make it lower probability for a purer/truer phase. 

As is, you're really looking at a southern wave that is 'in orbit' around the L/W and N-stream input.

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21 minutes ago, Hoth said:

I still won't put much weight on any of these solutions until the responsible s/w's leave the data sparse region. Hard to believe the models can accurately interpolate what's going on up there. The look at H5 down here is probably pretty well baked in, but the intensity of the shortwaves, perhaps the northern one especially, is going to take some time. Just a fuzzy approximation for now. Anyway, the look is not bad, and I expect these funny elongated and double barreled solutions will snap into a more coherent frame by 0z tomorrow. 

Also, lol at James suggesting western areas are trying to steal his snow. He has made out a like a bandit relative to climo over the last decade. Some regression depression has to happen eventually (though I'm not sure this will fit the bill).

Don't tell the modelers down at NCEP :)

 

yeah ...no it's really (I suspect) less about the storm its self, and more about these days leading... People want the model runs to be increasingly more dystopian in complexion upon every next run, or it's like a clammy sweaty trembling bed ridden intervention that's hiding under the covers from the monkey's crawling up the walls.

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I'm just impressed that the Euro is blowing up just as deep a bomb as the GFS. After the tropical season I figured the GFS was out to lunch, but now not so sure. I mean, if this did manage to come ashore in Maine as a 940-something, that would have to be close to all time low pressure, right? There was that Groundhog Day storm in the late '70s that was down there, but still...rarified air.

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2 minutes ago, Hoth said:

I'm just impressed that the Euro is blowing up just as deep a bomb as the GFS. After the tropical season I figured the GFS was out to lunch, but now not so sure. I mean, if this did manage to come ashore in Maine as a 940-something, that would have to be close to all time low pressure, right? There was that Groundhog Day storm in the late '70s that was down there, but still...rarified air.

Nah, it still sucks for tropical strength.

It runs uncoupled from the ocean (so it doesn't update the SST as it runs) which can allow for some runaway solutions for tropical systems (which rely much more on SSTs). The Euro also runs uncoupled as well, FYI.

These solutions are being driven by atmospheric baroclinicity, not intense latent heating driven by high SSTs.

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1 minute ago, OceanStWx said:

Nah, it still sucks for tropical strength.

It runs uncoupled from the ocean (so it doesn't update the SST as it runs) which can allow for some runaway solutions for tropical systems (which rely much more on SSTs). The Euro also runs uncoupled as well, FYI.

These solutions are being driven by atmospheric baroclinicity, not intense latent heating driven by high SSTs.

Cool, thanks for the clarification. 

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1 minute ago, NorEastermass128 said:

Agreed. Maybe max totals of 1’ but blizzard warnings along the coast of MA-NH-ME. 

Why would there be a 1' max? You have an insanely string bomb and one hell of a temperature gradient.

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8 minutes ago, WxBlue said:

I'd love to get my first footer from this storm.

You're putting up PBs left and right. Probably will set a pretty high mark in the cold department over the next week. Won't be at all surprised if you put up 12"+ sometime soon, too.

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Just now, moneypitmike said:

Accumulation predictions 5 days out?  Priceless.

 

2.4*

You know some news station somewhere it making maps for the 6 o'clock tonight

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8 minutes ago, Ericjcrash said:

Why would there be a 1' max? You have an insanely string bomb and one hell of a temperature gradient.

I’m not forecasting that by any means, but I agree with sbos in that we may have blizzard warnings even if prolific snows don’t materialize. 

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