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Jan 4-6 Coastal Bomb


Baroclinic Zone

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2 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Not to mention the MCS of paste jobs the outer banks just had. 

You know, if I just slap a bearing on the past low position and its current, that trajectory is a lot closer to ACK.

I do think there will be more easterly movement than the past couple of hours though. 

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im like the RHs of 70-80 percent in southern canada with SN- in ottawa currently... we will be on the edge here watching the big show, but hoping to maximize whatever moisture we get thrown back our way, with some CPV convergence for an extra bonus fingers crossed?...i'll be satisfied with 4 to freshen the pack,  and 6+ would be a gift.

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2 minutes ago, OceanStWx said:

You know, if I just slap a bearing on the past low position and its current, that trajectory is a lot closer to ACK.

I do think there will be more easterly movement than the past couple of hours though. 

Already seeing it on satellite.

What I'm attempting to look at right now is the dry air punch swinging behind it.

How far does it travel? And any warm air?

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4 minutes ago, OceanStWx said:

You know, if I just slap a bearing on the past low position and its current, that trajectory is a lot closer to ACK.

I do think there will be more easterly movement than the past couple of hours though. 

It’s starting to do that now I think.  It looks like it’s been going more ENE. And what about that blob east of it? I like what the 3KM NAM does.  

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This one is going to be memorable for sure. From OKX:

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
Forecast is on track. 00z NAM is around 5mb deeper than 12z run
with sfc low as it passes southeast of the area, although track
is similar. Not making any changes to headlines based on this,
will let mid shift see more data, which also incorporates
dropsondes from reconnaissance flight sent into the storm
earlier today. 991mb low off the Carolina coast will track NE
overnight with clouds lowering and thickening. Will need to
watch the convection near the center of the low as the latent
heat release tends to impact track and intensity.

Otherwise, operational models in some cases show as many as 3
to 5 surface lows in the area near and east of the Gulf Stream
off the Southeast United States coast tonight. It is possible in
some instances the models may be struggling to resolve some of
these meso-lows within the larger scale storm structure and
evolution. This may play a role in how quickly they intensify
the overall storm and also track once it develops.

Given how cold it is, precipitation overnight will be all snow.
The dry atmosphere will initially limit precipitation from
reaching the surface but model cross sections show a rapid
saturation of the atmosphere and thus once snow starts to fall
it should have no trouble keeping on going. The WRF remains the
most aggressive model as it deepens the surface low quicker and
overall with respect to pressure and thus it is the first to
crank out QPF across our area tonight. The best start time looks
to be between 06Z and 09Z across Long Island and southern CT
with snow starting closer to 09Z to 12Z from NYC and especially
points north and west. Get an early start to your commute
tomorrow morning if you need to travel.

Temperatures tonight will not be as chilly as what we`ve seen
recently due to the clouds and southerly flow with readings in
the low to mid 20s along the coast and teens inland.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/...
And travel conditions will get worse as the morning goes on as
the surface lows start to consolidate off or northeast of the
Outer Banks and the low starts to rapidly intensify or bomb with
respect to its pressure. The latest models have had a westward
track and thus we again have had to shift the forecast to
account for this. As mentioned above the WRF is the most robust
with QPF with the Hi-Res NMM the lowest. A blend of the
ECMWF/GFS/WRF operationally was followed for QPF.

Some points of note based on the latest models:

- This storm will be a quick hitter as it rapidly moves up the
  coast. Most areas will see a 6-12 hour window for steady snow
  of at least moderate intensity.

- There is a warm nose noted in model forecast soundings along
  the coast with the thermal profile although it is generally at
  or below freezing except right at the surface. Thus some sleet
  is expected to mix in along the South Shore of Suffolk County,
  especially on the South Fork and in southeast coastal CT in
  the Groton-New London-Mystic area. This will hold down amounts
  in these areas with respect to snow.

- Snow well north and west of The City (mainly in Orange County)
  will come in a very short window of one or two main bands.

- Snowfall rates per SPC products and looking at model QPF could
  exceed one inch per hour especially from The City on eastward.


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4 minutes ago, sbos_wx said:

Just as modeled. 

Less posting, more reading

Do you have authority to make such a statement? This isn't my first rodeo either. I was alive when people were throwing bricks at school buses in southie so even though I don't have a red tag or high post count ground observations confirm this is farther west than modeled and I don't need to pay Joe bastardi 50 bucks to tell me so.

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1 minute ago, 25thamendmentfan said:

Do you have authority to make such a statement? This isn't my first rodeo either. I was alive when people were throwing bricks at school buses in southie so even though I don't have a red tag or high post count ground observations confirm this is farther west than modeled and I don't need to pay Joe bastardi 50 bucks to tell me so.

Seems to be

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