WinterWolf Posted January 4, 2018 Share Posted January 4, 2018 5 minutes ago, codfishsnowman said: but there won't be one as amazing in so many other ways, I totally get the frustration....maybe we squeak out a 2006 miracle or this is another heartbreaker Oh I get it totally...but I don’t let it get to me anymore like I used too. If I can get 8-10 I’ll be happy. Feb 2006 I was forecast to get 8-15, and got 24 inches...that ain’t happening with this thing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thunderblizzard Posted January 4, 2018 Share Posted January 4, 2018 0z RGEM looks a lot better around here based on the early maps. Low tucked in kind of close to Nantucket at hour 20. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Greg Posted January 4, 2018 Share Posted January 4, 2018 5 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said: https://earth.nullschool.net/#current/wind/surface/level/orthographic=-67.49,35.04,2104 You see that. The two swirling counter clockwise storms northest of Florida. That is why your models had a hard time. Two seperate storms fighting for power instead of one big slow moving one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted January 4, 2018 Share Posted January 4, 2018 8 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said: Thanks actually feel like crap but when your are the Boss when emergencies happen you gotta go, been at it since 0430 You’ll feel better tomorrow with 14-20”. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ROOSTA Posted January 4, 2018 Share Posted January 4, 2018 Put it in the pipe and smoke it. Anyone up for some convective banding? http://www.lightningmaps.org/blitzortung/america/index.php?lang=en Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted January 4, 2018 Share Posted January 4, 2018 4 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said: https://earth.nullschool.net/#current/wind/surface/level/orthographic=-67.49,35.04,2104 There's that dual structure everyone said was a model error Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 4, 2018 Share Posted January 4, 2018 0z Reggie is west of the 18z Run, Slightly SE of the BM 18z 0z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
codfishsnowman Posted January 4, 2018 Share Posted January 4, 2018 2 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said: Don’t worry, there will be more heartbreakers down the road. 40/70 was right...nailed the time period and that it would favor eastern zones....well over a week ago Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted January 4, 2018 Share Posted January 4, 2018 Need Reggie to bang 3 homers now. ONe TIME....or three times! whateva...Just show us the big fly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted January 4, 2018 Share Posted January 4, 2018 Reggie/NAM/RPM are not far off now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Greg Posted January 4, 2018 Share Posted January 4, 2018 2 minutes ago, dryslot said: 0z Reggie is west of the 18z Run, Slightly SE of the BM 18z I see a DEATH BAND in there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
codfishsnowman Posted January 4, 2018 Share Posted January 4, 2018 3 minutes ago, Greg said: You see that. The two swirling counter clockwise storms northest of Florida. That is why your models had a hard time. Two seperate storms fighting for power instead of one big slow moving one. so then they were never "wrong" about the dual low structure....actually it seems like the models have all done a pretty great job so far Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WintersComing Posted January 4, 2018 Share Posted January 4, 2018 Reggie is a little more west early on. Just need to avoid that later kick that seems to keep tearing its ugly head. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HIPPYVALLEY Posted January 4, 2018 Share Posted January 4, 2018 5 minutes ago, weathafella said: Reggie/NAM/RPM are not far off now. This storm is going to bury you like the Celtics just buried the Cavaliers! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Greg Posted January 4, 2018 Share Posted January 4, 2018 4 minutes ago, codfishsnowman said: so then they were never "wrong" about the dual low structure....actually it seems like the models have all done a pretty great job so far What I'm trying to say is that if there was one storm, then all the power would be in it and the consintration of energy would be near the coastline ( Baroclinicic Zone) and give you western Mass peeps a really decent chance. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WintersComing Posted January 4, 2018 Share Posted January 4, 2018 Also curious what effect those recon flights will have on model output?. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted January 4, 2018 Share Posted January 4, 2018 1 minute ago, HIPPYVALLEY said: This storm is going to bury you like the Celtics just buried the Cavaliers! Indeed I am in a good spot in general for this one but I’m sure there will be surprises. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoth Posted January 4, 2018 Share Posted January 4, 2018 7 minutes ago, Greg said: I see a DEATH BAND in there. And I see exhaust west of it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted January 4, 2018 Share Posted January 4, 2018 Rgem takes it to 945mb wow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted January 4, 2018 Share Posted January 4, 2018 OKX talked about 3-5 meso lows rotating around and mucking things up. It still may not make the difference to track it 50 miles west but if we can consolidate it...that would help with the inflow and throw heavier precip left. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherHawk Posted January 4, 2018 Share Posted January 4, 2018 Peeping in from the Southeast forum...you all about to get hammered...good luck and enjoy the ride Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxsniss Posted January 4, 2018 Share Posted January 4, 2018 Decent step by RGEM towards consensus. Poor performance by 12z/18z runs today, it (and CMC) were real outliers. Actually looks similar to Euro now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoth Posted January 4, 2018 Share Posted January 4, 2018 17 minutes ago, Greg said: You see that. The two swirling counter clockwise storms northest of Florida. That is why your models had a hard time. Two seperate storms fighting for power instead of one big slow moving one. That's got me shook. Thinking that east one dominates and pulls the other one in. That might account for those weird sudden eastward leaps some of the mesos have been doing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted January 4, 2018 Share Posted January 4, 2018 I honestly have no idea what to expect snowfall-wise could see 6”. Could see 14” The winds should impress Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxsniss Posted January 4, 2018 Share Posted January 4, 2018 5 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said: OKX talked about 3-5 meso lows rotating around and mucking things up. It still may not make the difference to track it 50 miles west but if we can consolidate it...that would help with the inflow and throw heavier precip left. Was thinking about this... I'm actually not sure we want this to consolidate into one "superlow" (OKX's term) earlier... I wonder if the bobbling multiple lows keeps this from maturing too early, keeping the best dynamics south of us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 4, 2018 Share Posted January 4, 2018 2 minutes ago, wxsniss said: Decent step by RGEM towards consensus. Poor performance by 12z/18z runs today, it (and CMC) were real outliers. Actually looks similar to Euro now. Seems metro Boston is in a great spot. On most solutions they are cleaning up regardless of the mid level goodies shifting around each run. So much low level forcing there along with no hint of dryslotting. Out in the 495 belt I feel pretty good too but a few of the eastern rgem runs made me a little nervous. But 00z makes me feel better. Pretty good consensus now as mentioned. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HIPPYVALLEY Posted January 4, 2018 Share Posted January 4, 2018 2 minutes ago, HoarfrostHubb said: I honestly have no idea what to expect snowfall-wise could see 6”. Could see 14” The winds should impress I think there will be a lot of places that see 14" that are not far from places that see 6". Radar will be fascinating tomorrow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 4, 2018 Share Posted January 4, 2018 Overall from about 60 hours out, gotta hand it to the non-hydrostatics. They dominated the globals who still mostly had a scraper at 60 hours. This was a classic system though for them to have a rare medium range advantage over the globals. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JKEisMan Posted January 4, 2018 Share Posted January 4, 2018 Latest RAP. Shows enhancement along ctrv. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherNurse Posted January 4, 2018 Share Posted January 4, 2018 24 minutes ago, dryslot said: 0z Reggie is west of the 18z Run, Slightly SE of the BM 18z 0z Lets keep that snow in Maine! Eye on the prize - Lewiston and Newry!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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