dryslot Posted January 4, 2018 Share Posted January 4, 2018 1 minute ago, sbos_wx said: A blizzard warning is weenie soothing I think you proved that point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted January 4, 2018 Share Posted January 4, 2018 3 minutes ago, dryslot said: I think you proved that point. Yeah I just fell into a nice four hour slumber right after Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 4, 2018 Share Posted January 4, 2018 4 minutes ago, sbos_wx said: Yeah I just fell into a nice four hour slumber right after Stress is very tiring.....lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
duncanwxnh Posted January 4, 2018 Share Posted January 4, 2018 30 minutes ago, DomNH said: Eh, I'd go 6-10'' east of the Cheshire/Hillsborough border and then 8-14'' for eastern Rockingham which isn't that much different from 4-8'' and 8-12''+. I don't think the WMUR crew gets enough love. They're really good. I 100% agree. Josh, Kevin and Haley are great people and qualified scientists. :-) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted January 4, 2018 Share Posted January 4, 2018 It is comforting when OceanWaves says the low is pretty tucked in. We await his analysis later. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoth Posted January 4, 2018 Share Posted January 4, 2018 Radar looks juiced off NC. Solid moisture transport into this thing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted January 4, 2018 Author Share Posted January 4, 2018 1 hour ago, CT Rain said: Seems like it's keying in on mid-level magic and some of the lowe level forcing over E MAss. 1 hour ago, ORH_wxman said: Someone in a narrow zone will prob score pretty nicely...hard to say where they might be...might be two zones even. The MLs line up in E MA a bit better on the rpm vs a solution like those westward NAM runs...so they take advantage of both the MLs and some crazy LL stuff at the same time. I joked about it the other day when the GGEM was spitting out the nonsense 30" but I was 1/2 serious about the thought of it. I wonder if because this is a "warm core" storm the ML deformation does not expand out as far west as we traditionally see? Could be quite the unique scenario where SE MA see the huge omega-fronto band than the ML deformation zone collapses on it rather than rotting out further west than we traditionally see in cold season storms. Than again this could just be the RPM being it's usual self. I'm actually looking forward to what the 00z model suite shows before we go into nowcast mode (although we are almost there now) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted January 4, 2018 Share Posted January 4, 2018 10 minutes ago, dryslot said: Stress is very tiring.....lol This one ranks up there with Jan 15 as the most exhausting chase in my weenie career. In fact, it may be tops because Jan 15 I was sitting pretty for days based off euro and was in cruise control. This one, I’ve been grinding my teeth crunching endless data looking for models under rocks that would spit west folks a favorable solution......I’m shot. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxsniss Posted January 4, 2018 Share Posted January 4, 2018 35 minutes ago, OceanStWx said: You can see the low position, at the top of the comma. That’s tucked in there pretty good. I’m mobile so I can’t really compare to model position right now. Overlapping model images with satellite images for 23z... 18z 3k NAM and 18z RGEM are closest to satellite low position, 18z 12k NAM a tick too west, 18z GFS by far the worst with multiple lows Given that 18z 3k NAM and 18z RGEM have significantly different outcomes, I'm guessing this will take a few more hours before nowcasts can prognosticate where this is headed. But for the more western tracks, seems promising to see the eastern convection dissipate. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Go Kart Mozart Posted January 4, 2018 Share Posted January 4, 2018 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted January 4, 2018 Author Share Posted January 4, 2018 5 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said: It is comforting when OceanWaves says the low is pretty tucked in. We await his analysis later. I'm not so sure the upstream observations will have much bearing on the downstream in this scenario/setup. The track seems pretty well set with some subtle nuances. I'm confident we aren't seeing 30-60 mi shifts in overall track. Maybe we see a 10-20mi shift. Just how my gut feels after seeing the models converge today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bboughton Posted January 4, 2018 Share Posted January 4, 2018 I love that Brookline and Cambridge have identical forecasts but only Brookline gets the Blizzard warning since south shore required Norfolk county to be in Blizzard warning and they didn’t want to extend to Middlesex. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HIPPYVALLEY Posted January 4, 2018 Share Posted January 4, 2018 4 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said: This one ranks up there with Jan 15 as the most exhausting chase in my weenie career. In fact, it may be tops because Jan 15 I was sitting pretty for days based off euro and was in cruise control. This one, I’ve been grinding my teeth crunching endless data looking for models under rocks that would spit west folks a favorable solution......I’m shot. I rely on your analysis and enthusiasm for us WNE folks. Now use "the force" Jedi Weenie and will this storm West., Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AfewUniversesBelowNormal Posted January 4, 2018 Share Posted January 4, 2018 Fwiw, guidance has come west in the Mid-Atlantic, Expecting 3-6" in Baltimore. Love the 1960s look to storm. RAP is 2mb away from Winter record. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted January 4, 2018 Share Posted January 4, 2018 4 minutes ago, HIPPYVALLEY said: I rely on your analysis and enthusiasm for us WNE folks. Now use "the force" Jedi Weenie and will this storm West., To paraphrase Fat Sam, if it comes, it comes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted January 4, 2018 Share Posted January 4, 2018 7 minutes ago, Baroclinic Zone said: I'm not so sure the upstream observations will have much bearing on the downstream in this scenario/setup. The track seems pretty well set with some subtle nuances. I'm confident we aren't seeing 30-60 mi shifts in overall track. Maybe we see a 10-20mi shift. Just how my gut feels after seeing the models converge today. Agreed, and 10-20 miles makes a huge difference lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted January 4, 2018 Share Posted January 4, 2018 Quote NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/... So far this winter we`ve had intense cold. However for this winter to really rank up there for an overall memorable winter known for cold and snow in these parts such as 1977-1978, 1993-1994 or 1995-1996, it needs to deliver with the snow. This looks about to change. A storm system off the coast of Florida at the present is helping to spread high clouds into the area in earnest this afternoon and early this evening cloud bases will continue to lower. Temperatures tonight will not be as chilly as what we`ve seen recently due to the clouds and southerly flow with readings in the low to mid 20s along the coast and teens inland. At the present the approaching storm does not look all that impressive looking at satellite and water vapor imagery. However, there are two main areas of surface low pressure at the present. One is about 200 miles or so off the coast of Melbourne, Florida and a second is about 150 miles or so east of St. Augustine, Florida. Operational models in some cases show as many as 3 to 5 surface lows in the area near and east of the Gulf Stream off the Southeast United States coast tonight. It is possible in some instances the models may be struggling to resolve some of these meso-lows within the larger scale storm structure and evolution. This may play a role in how quickly the intensify the overall storm and also track the eventual super- low once it develops. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bboughton Posted January 4, 2018 Share Posted January 4, 2018 HRDPS looks most reasonable to me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Greg Posted January 4, 2018 Share Posted January 4, 2018 These little 10-20 mile wobbles do actually make an impact when it reaches our latitude. It means a about a 2-3 county diference in terms of snowfall , wind, and duration. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted January 4, 2018 Author Share Posted January 4, 2018 9 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said: Agreed, and 10-20 miles makes a huge difference lol. I don't think the MSLP track will have much impact on the sensible outcome as much as how the MLs track and how mature the cyclone is. I proposed a hypothesis above about how we may not be seeing a traditional winter storm since we may be dealing with a storm that has TC characteristics. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 4, 2018 Share Posted January 4, 2018 9 minutes ago, bboughton said: HRDPS looks most reasonable to me. Does it jack your area? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Greg Posted January 4, 2018 Share Posted January 4, 2018 3 minutes ago, Baroclinic Zone said: I don't think the MSLP track will have much impact on the sensible outcome as much as how the MLs track and how mature the cyclone is. I proposed a hypothesis above about how we may not be seeing a traditional winter storm since we may be dealing with a storm that has TC characteristics. I wonder if you were around in the '78 Blizzard if you would say simliar things (Tropical Characteristics). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
centralmass Posted January 4, 2018 Share Posted January 4, 2018 Is there a better 3-hour pressure change map than this one available anywhere? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JBinStoughton Posted January 4, 2018 Share Posted January 4, 2018 2 minutes ago, Baroclinic Zone said: I don't think the MSLP track will have much impact on the sensible outcome as much as how the MLs track and how mature the cyclone is. I proposed a hypothesis above about how we may not be seeing a traditional winter storm since we may be dealing with a storm that has TC characteristics. If that’s the case, would that argue for a tighter qpf gradient than what models show and and a smaller area of high amounts? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted January 4, 2018 Share Posted January 4, 2018 1 minute ago, Baroclinic Zone said: I don't think the MSLP track will have much impact on the sensible outcome as much as how the MLs track and how mature the cyclone is. I proposed a hypothesis above about how we may not be seeing a traditional winter storm since we may be dealing with a storm that has TC characteristics. Fair enough, it makes sense. However, there is also that deform band that runs NE to SW that usually curls into the center.....that’s the big band, ala ala Feb 13 and Jan 15 that is usually not that far NW. It’s like there is the CF, middle death band, and a far NW fluff band. So 10-20 miles makes the difference whether some sit in subsidence or tickle one of the two bands. You don’t want to be stuck in between. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxsniss Posted January 4, 2018 Share Posted January 4, 2018 14 minutes ago, Baroclinic Zone said: I don't think the MSLP track will have much impact on the sensible outcome as much as how the MLs track and how mature the cyclone is. I proposed a hypothesis above about how we may not be seeing a traditional winter storm since we may be dealing with a storm that has TC characteristics. Exactly. I won't pretend to understand the physical mechanics, but the warm core nature (that as OceanStWx discussed earlier prolongs the intensification well after this closes off by NC/VA) makes me wonder if this will have unusual mechanics similar to a hybrid like Sandy or tropical cyclone undergoing ET. And whether that could expand qpf field? I don't have a good understanding but multiple AFDs alluding to a highly anomalous setup. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bboughton Posted January 4, 2018 Share Posted January 4, 2018 6 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: Does it jack your area? No. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted January 4, 2018 Author Share Posted January 4, 2018 1 minute ago, Greg said: I wonder if you were around in the '78 Blizzard if you would say simliar things (Tropical Characteristics). I was 3-1/2. Interesting question. That was a Miller B. This storm is more of a hybrid so the comparisons end there. What 1978 did was get cutoff from the flow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weatherexpert Posted January 4, 2018 Share Posted January 4, 2018 16 minutes ago, Greg said: These little 10-20 mile wobbles do actually make an impact when it reaches our latitude. It means a about a 2-3 county diference in terms of snowfall , wind, and duration. Exactly Greg, small differences can mean everything. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted January 4, 2018 Author Share Posted January 4, 2018 8 minutes ago, JBinStoughton said: If that’s the case, would that argue for a tighter qpf gradient than what models show and and a smaller area of high amounts? The RPM would argue as much. Granted it's on it's own but we are entering the maturation process of this storm so we will see. I'm pretty curious to see how the 00z runs play out. It's a fascinating storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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