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Jan 4-6 Coastal Bomb


Baroclinic Zone

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1 minute ago, CT Rain said:

Seems like it's keying in on mid-level magic and some of the lowe level forcing over E MAss. 

Someone in a narrow zone will prob score pretty nicely...hard to say where they might be...might be two zones even. The MLs line up in E MA a bit better on the rpm vs a solution like those westward NAM runs...so they take advantage of both the MLs and some crazy LL stuff at the same time.

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1 minute ago, WthrJunkyME said:

Can someone in the know explain why the NWS put out two different products?  I kind of get they’re separate agencies within NWS.  

Thanks!

 

 

 

 

 

33185858-7CE0-4870-BDCC-4E0F6F10E60C.png

Not sure about your question.  I notice looking at the big map, the NH/MA border being the cutoff indicates some disagreement between GYX/BOX with BOX being more aggressive with the totals in that area.

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28 minutes ago, CT Rain said:

Tough call... a lot of what I see makes me want to  go higher but the fast motion and the Euro still be a smidge east has me gun shy. 

I think your amounts right now are perfect!

If some later info comes in that looks like it’s coming a bit closer/bands look to set up in certain areas... take em up a bit.  I think 8 inches is a good call for my area...hope to get under a band if I could be so fortunate too lol, and get up closer to a foot here in Southington..

 

Nice discussion on air tonight to btw!!  

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2 minutes ago, bobbutts said:

Not sure about your question.  I notice looking at the big map, the NH/MA border being the cutoff indicates some disagreement between GYX/BOX with BOX being more aggressive with the totals in that area.

It could also be the difference between 11 inches and 12 inches. Ranges can deceive.

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6 minutes ago, WthrJunkyME said:

Can someone in the know explain why the NWS put out two different products?  I kind of get they’re separate agencies within NWS.  

Thanks!

What's the question?  One is a snapshot of the GYX area forecast and the other is a combination of all the NWS office.

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2 minutes ago, OceanStWx said:

It’s the same product, just splicing all the offices together in the larger one.

Thanks for replying.  The forecasted totals are clearly not in agreement in Maine.  I’m not trying to be critical of it, I just find it curious that they’d be a bit off from each other.

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That track nearly due north towards LI keeps happening closer and closer to the coast. 18z gfs run is pretty tucked in there through 18 hr. Loop the past 10 or so GFS runs at hr 18....Pretty obvious trend there, and we are now at a point where if this continues every little shift results in significantly more impacts for a lot more people...I wonder if this is what caused OKX to be more aggressive than most guidance...

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2 minutes ago, jbenedet said:

That track nearly due north towards LI keeps happening closer and closer to the coast. 18z gfs run is pretty tucked in there through 18 hr. Loop the past 10 or so GFS runs at hr 18....Pretty obvious trend there, and we are now at a point where if this continues every little shift results in significantly more impacts for a lot more people...I wonder if this is what caused OKX to be more aggressive than most guidance...

Nowcast looks like this may be what we need to do...

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12 minutes ago, WthrJunkyME said:

Thanks for replying.  The forecasted totals are clearly not in agreement in Maine.  I’m not trying to be critical of it, I just find it curious that they’d be a bit off from each other.

I guess I disagree, we look lock step with CAR and maybe the difference of an inch or two with BOX.

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1 minute ago, mahk_webstah said:

Looking at the national radar it really does look like the precip shield is well inland and moving due north. Weenie hallucinations or more west than we thought?

I think that is virga and most models take that in account. 

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52 minutes ago, SJonesWX said:

WMUR Manchester going with 4-8” pretty much statewide in NH. Seems low to this weenie

Eh, I'd go 6-10'' east of the Cheshire/Hillsborough border and then 8-14'' for eastern Rockingham which isn't that much different from 4-8'' and 8-12''+. I don't think the WMUR crew gets enough love. They're really good. 

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2 hours ago, WxBlue said:

Reports of 5-6" coming in from suburbs of Charleston (SC).

This is hilarious because my wife and her gf are scheduled to cruise out of the port on Saturday.  They're a bit nervous about how they will get there Saturday.  920AM flight out of Logan.  They do have the flight booked through the cruise so that helps. :lol:

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